Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In our latest South Korean banks screener; we stick with quality play Hana Financial but remove contrarian call Industrial Bank of Korea, due to fast rising credit quality headwinds</li>
<li>NPLs and precautionary quality credits continue on a rising trend, whilst Hana seems to be containing delinquency better than most</li>
<li>Hana has a low PBV ratio relative to its premium ROE, high post-provision returns, a sound CET1 ratio and a healthy LDR; Kakaobank is one for the watchlist</li>
</ul>


In our latest South Korean banks screener; we stick with quality play Hana Financial but remove contrarian call Industrial Bank of Korea, due to fast rising credit quality headwinds
NPLs and precautionary quality credits continue on a rising trend, whilst Hana seems to be containing delinquency better than most
Hana has a low PBV ratio relative to its premium ROE, high post-provision returns, a sound CET1 ratio and a healthy LDR; Kakaobank is one for the watchlist


South Korean Banks Screen; Stick with Hana Financial (086790 KS)

<ul>
<li>In our latest South Korean banks screener; we stick with quality play Hana Financial and deep value Industrial Bank of Korea, despite rising credit quality headwinds</li>
<li>We introduce delinquency ratio charts that show that NPLs and other poor quality credits are on a rising trend, yet most banks have healthy NPL provisions coverage</li>
<li>Hana has a low PBV ratio relative to its premium ROE and an undemanding PEG; Industrial Bank of Korea has attractive multiples, PEG ratio and near top returns versus peers</li>
</ul>


In our latest South Korean banks screener; we stick with quality play Hana Financial and deep value Industrial Bank of Korea, despite rising credit quality headwinds
We introduce delinquency ratio charts that show that NPLs and other poor quality credits are on a rising trend, yet most banks have healthy NPL provisions coverage
Hana has a low PBV ratio relative to its premium ROE and an undemanding PEG; Industrial Bank of Korea has attractive multiples, PEG ratio and near top returns versus peers


South Korea Banks Screen; Focus on Hana Financial (086790 KS) & Industrial Bank of Korea (024110 KS)

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising delinquencies.</li>
<li>The major reasons for higher loans and cards delinquency ratios include higher interest rate burdens, higher inflation rates, inverted yield curve, weakening economy, and pressures on disposable income.</li>
<li>The delinquency ratios of the largest nine banks in Korea all worsened in 1Q 2023 (for both banks and credit cards).</li>
</ul>


We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising delinquencies.
The major reasons for higher loans and cards delinquency ratios include higher interest rate burdens, higher inflation rates, inverted yield curve, weakening economy, and pressures on disposable income.
The delinquency ratios of the largest nine banks in Korea all worsened in 1Q 2023 (for both banks and credit cards).


Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

Industrial Bank Of Korea / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In our latest South Korean banks screener; we add Industrial Bank of Korea to the buy list alongside Hana Financial; we cut KB Financial to a neutral rating</li>
<li>Industrial Bank of Korea has very attractive multiples and PEG ratio and the best pre-provision and post-provision returns of the peer group, it also has sound broad credit quality metrics</li>
<li>We introduce a broader credit quality metric to the screens and also EPS revisions over the last week and last month to give a sense of earnings momentum changes</li>
</ul>


In our latest South Korean banks screener; we add Industrial Bank of Korea to the buy list alongside Hana Financial; we cut KB Financial to a neutral rating
Industrial Bank of Korea has very attractive multiples and PEG ratio and the best pre-provision and post-provision returns of the peer group, it also has sound broad credit quality metrics
We introduce a broader credit quality metric to the screens and also EPS revisions over the last week and last month to give a sense of earnings momentum changes


South Korean Banks Screener; Highlighting Industrial Bank of Korea (024110 KS)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jb-financial-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16104:1" rel="noopener">Jb Financial Group (175330 KS)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-fire-marine-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20468:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Fire &amp; Marine Insurance (000060 KS)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the close on 27 January.</li>
<li>We estimate passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> trackers will need to buy 3.494m shares (KRW 36.34bn; 4.04 days of ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jb-financial-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16104:1" rel="noopener">Jb Financial Group (175330 KS)</a> at the close on 27 January.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> in April, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19692:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Securities (008560 KS)</a> following its merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11776:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Jb Financial Group (175330 KS) will replace Meritz Fire &amp; Marine Insurance (000060 KS) in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the close on 27 January.
We estimate passive KOSPI2 INDEX trackers will need to buy 3.494m shares (KRW 36.34bn; 4.04 days of ADV) of Jb Financial Group (175330 KS) at the close on 27 January.

DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) could be added to the KOSPI2 INDEX in April, replacing Meritz Securities (008560 KS) following its merger with Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS). 


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: JB Financial (175330 KS) To Replace Meritz F&M (000060 KS)

South Korea

Industrial Bank of Korea(IBK) is a policy bank providing development finance and related banking services to support small and medium-sized enterprises in Korea. The Bank provides loans, discount bills, trade finance, deposits, foreign exchange, and payment guarantees. The company also offers services such as credit cards, insurance and smart-phone banking.

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Industrial Bank of Korea (IBK LX)

South Korean Banks Screen; Stick with Hana Financial (086790 KS)

In South Korean banks, we stick with quality play Hana Financial but remove contrarian call Industrial Bank of Korea, due to the latter's fast...

Victor Galliano

South Korea Banks Screen; Focus on Hana Financial (086790 KS) & Industrial Bank of Korea (024110 KS)

Despite worsening sector NPL trends, we like Hana for attractive valuations to its premium ROE and an undemanding PEG; Industrial Bank of Korea has...

Victor Galliano

Korean Banks: Sharp Rise in Delinquency Ratios in 1Q 2023 & Inverted Yield Curve

We believe that the nine Korean banks (on average) are likely to continue to underperform KOSPI in the next 6-12 months due to the continued rising...

Douglas Kim

South Korean Banks Screener; Highlighting Industrial Bank of Korea (024110 KS)

We add deep value Industrial Bank of Korea to the buy list along with higher quality Hana Financial and we cut KB Financial to a neutral rating; we...

Victor Galliano

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: JB Financial (175330 KS) To Replace Meritz F&M (000060 KS)

JB Financial will replace Meritz F&M Insurance in the KOSPI200 at the close on 27 Jan. JB is +32% in the last 13 trading days & trades at a higher...

Brian Freitas

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