Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The China bank numbers show us once again that quarterly figures during the year are hardly reliable. This is because it is in the final quarter when banks top up their impairment costs, showing that previous periods are highly inflated.  At the same time, where stated NPL figures are increasingly held in question, for some banks, special mention loans are soaring. This is yet another way to limit impairment costs and inflate profit.Profit growth of selected China banks (% ch QoQ)<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td> </td>
<td style="text-align: right;">2Q16</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">3Q16</td>
<td style="text-align: right;">4Q16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>…</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>

The China bank numbers show us once again that quarterly figures during the year are hardly reliable. This is because it is in the final quarter when banks top up their impairment costs, showing that previous periods are highly inflated.  At the same time, where stated NPL figures are increasingly held in question, for some banks, special mention loans are soaring. This is yet another way to limit impairment costs and inflate profit.Profit growth of selected China banks (% ch QoQ)

 
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16


…



Sequential Profit Is Telling for China Banks

Head of Research at Fusion Wealth Management Ltd

Michael McGaughy

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its 'Sons and Daughters Program'. The silence since then from Chinese anti-corruption officials has been deafening.

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its 'Sons and Daughters Program'. The silence since then from Chinese anti-corruption officials has been deafening.

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

China has announced the launch of a new initiative that is likely to liberalize the process for foreign investors to invest in the China bond market. As the third largest bond market in the world, this could be a significant boost to international investors wanting access to the Mainland China debt market.<div class="content-highlight">On 15 March 2017, following the fifth annual meeting of the 12th National People' Congress, Premier Li Keqiang announced the intention to launch a bond trading link between China and Hong Kong…</div>

China has announced the launch of a new initiative that is likely to liberalize the process for foreign investors to invest in the China bond market. As the third largest bond market in the world, this could be a significant boost to international investors wanting access to the Mainland China debt market.On 15 March 2017, following the fifth annual meeting of the 12th National People' Congress, Premier Li Keqiang announced the intention to launch a bond trading link between China and Hong Kong…

China-Hong Kong Bond Connect on Its Way. A Legal Update from Dechert's Financial Services Group

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment.  The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) publishes claims on non-financial institutions for China’s banks, which is essentially corporate lending.  Growth has just reached a 10-year low of 6.1% YoY in February. Where these loans are 2.5x the level of consumer loans, they are important and their trend, a reasonable reflection of economic strength. In any case, the first two months of 2017 are far…

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment.  The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) publishes claims on non-financial institutions for China’s banks, which is essentially corporate lending.  Growth has just reached a 10-year low of 6.1% YoY in February. Where these loans are 2.5x the level of consumer loans, they are important and their trend, a reasonable reflection of economic strength. In any case, the first two months of 2017 are far…

China

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund underwriting, foreign currency settlement, and other services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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ICBC (H) (1398 HK)

Sequential Profit Is Telling for China Banks

The China bank numbers show us once again that quarterly figures during the year are hardly reliable. This is because it is in the final quarter...

Daniel Tabbush

Bitcoin - The View From Lagos

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value. I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality...

Michael McGaughy

Chinese Officials Turn a Blind Eye to Corruption

One of America's most prestigious investment banks was fined hundreds of millions of dollars last year for bribing Chinese officials through its...

Bixmoor

China-Hong Kong Bond Connect on Its Way. A Legal Update from Dechert's Financial Services Group

China has announced the launch of a new initiative that is likely to liberalize the process for foreign investors to invest in the China bond...

Dechert LLP

Weakening Credit in 1Q17 in China

With new China data it’s easy to consider a fairly benign growth environment. The reality is more striking. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC)...

Daniel Tabbush

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