Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<h2>EM Investors Reduce China Underweight</h2>Global EM Investors are closing their underweight positions in China.  Analysis of 180 Global EM Equity Funds shows average China &amp; HK allocations at their highest ever levels of 27.9%, with underweights reducing by 1.7% from a low of 5.37% (post-2016 US-Listed China index inclusions) to -3.66% today.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/056/281/original/Picture1.png?1530173899" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="56281"></figure>As further evidence of this active weight increase, the chart below shows the percentage of GEM funds overweight China &amp; HK versus the EEM Index* increase…

EM Investors Reduce China UnderweightGlobal EM Investors are closing their underweight positions in China.  Analysis of 180 Global EM Equity Funds shows average China &amp; HK allocations at their highest ever levels of 27.9%, with underweights reducing by 1.7% from a low of 5.37% (post-2016 US-Listed China index inclusions) to -3.66% today.  As further evidence of this active weight increase, the chart below shows the percentage of GEM funds overweight China &amp; HK versus the EEM Index* increase…

EM Investors Reduce China Underweight - Take Out the B.A.Ts and They Are Overweight!

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Following the announcement of the Chinese central bank’s required reserve ratio, or RRR, cut of 50 basis points, effective July 5, we retain our fair value estimates for the Chinese banks we cover, as the positives of liquidity injections are largely offset by downward pressures on credit quality, in our view. Chinese banks under our coverage are trading at three-year lows on our valuation level of 0.4-0.8 times forward price/book, except for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10987" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a>. This is…

Following the announcement of the Chinese central bank’s required reserve ratio, or RRR, cut of 50 basis points, effective July 5, we retain our fair value estimates for the Chinese banks we cover, as the positives of liquidity injections are largely offset by downward pressures on credit quality, in our view. Chinese banks under our coverage are trading at three-year lows on our valuation level of 0.4-0.8 times forward price/book, except for China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK). This is…

Positives of RRR Cut Are Likely to Be Offset by Rising Credit Quality Pressures as Economy Weakens

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

* Increased NPL Recognition - Not Exactly Comforting; and * Lowered Reserve Coverage Each Invoke Capital Forebearance. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>Seemingly, nonperforming loan (NPL) recognition at the mainland Chinese banks is likely tighten as ALL loans 90 days past due loans or more are required to be downgraded to NPL status by end 1H18 for the larger and larger 2nd Tier banks. Isn't that a giant kick in the pants? So, after all of these years, who knew that the mainland Chinese banks were…

* Increased NPL Recognition - Not Exactly Comforting; and * Lowered Reserve Coverage Each Invoke Capital Forebearance. Investment SummarySeemingly, nonperforming loan (NPL) recognition at the mainland Chinese banks is likely tighten as ALL loans 90 days past due loans or more are required to be downgraded to NPL status by end 1H18 for the larger and larger 2nd Tier banks. Isn't that a giant kick in the pants? So, after all of these years, who knew that the mainland Chinese banks were…

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

It is hard to envisage a positive reading of the abysmal 6.1% YoY fixed asset investment growth in China for May 2018 year-to-date. Headlines and commentators have urged that a recovery in China is underway for some time. If this were so, fixed asset investment growth would not likely be on a downward trend for so long, while now reaching the lowest point in our time series that spans 23 years.  Perhaps as interesting, is that the average rate of growth of all the YTD periods is 20.0%. Retail…

It is hard to envisage a positive reading of the abysmal 6.1% YoY fixed asset investment growth in China for May 2018 year-to-date. Headlines and commentators have urged that a recovery in China is underway for some time. If this were so, fixed asset investment growth would not likely be on a downward trend for so long, while now reaching the lowest point in our time series that spans 23 years.  Perhaps as interesting, is that the average rate of growth of all the YTD periods is 20.0%. Retail…

China Banks – Worsening Macro Will See Higher Bad Loans

Stewart Paterson

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts that in the thirteen years between 2017 and 2030 foreign bank assets will rise from RMB 3.2 Trillion to RMB 18.8 Trillion (a CAGR of 15%) taking their market share from 1.3% to 3.1%. The underlying assumption seems to be that total bank assets will grow at a CAGR of 7%. Given bank assets currently equal about 3x GDP, one assumes that 7% is also the…

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts that in the thirteen years between 2017 and 2030 foreign bank assets will rise from RMB 3.2 Trillion to RMB 18.8 Trillion (a CAGR of 15%) taking their market share from 1.3% to 3.1%. The underlying assumption seems to be that total bank assets will grow at a CAGR of 7%. Given bank assets currently equal about 3x GDP, one assumes that 7% is also the…

Money Matters: Chinese Financial System Opening Up- The Chance of a Lifetime?

China

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund underwriting, foreign currency settlement, and other services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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ICBC (H) (1398 HK)

EM Investors Reduce China Underweight - Take Out the B.A.Ts and They Are Overweight!

EM Investors Reduce China UnderweightGlobal EM Investors are closing their underweight positions in China. Analysis of 180 Global EM Equity Funds...

Steven Holden

Positives of RRR Cut Are Likely to Be Offset by Rising Credit Quality Pressures as Economy Weakens

Following the announcement of the Chinese central bank’s required reserve ratio, or RRR, cut of 50 basis points, effective July 5, we retain our...

Morningstar, Inc.

China Banks - Back to the Land of Silly

* Increased NPL Recognition - Not Exactly Comforting; and * Lowered Reserve Coverage Each Invoke Capital Forebearance. Investment SummarySeemingly,...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Banks – Worsening Macro Will See Higher Bad Loans

It is hard to envisage a positive reading of the abysmal 6.1% YoY fixed asset investment growth in China for May 2018 year-to-date. Headlines and...

Daniel Tabbush

Money Matters: Chinese Financial System Opening Up- The Chance of a Lifetime?

A recent Bloomberg article titled "China's about to give global finance the chance of a lifetime" made me smile. In the article Bloomberg predicts...

Stewart Paterson

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