Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

China Citic Bank Corp Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

*Poor Result Even Before Provision Cut:China CITIC Bank (998.HK) [CITIC] reported 2H20 results of CNY 23.6 bn, declining CNY 3.6 bn (13.3%) HOH. Unlike other mainland Chinese banks, CITIC gives almost no breakdown of revenues. Nevertheless, the poor HOH results were driven by negative operating jaws as revenues declined CNY 9.2 bn (9.1%) while operating expenses increased CNY 6.6 bn (27.8%); and*Credit Still A Major Challenge: Riskier and chunkier real estate and construction NPLs increased 211 bp and 293 bp HOH, respectively. Further, we note zero reprieve in net new NPL growth at CNY 41.1 bn  - growing 106.9% on an annualized basis – this remains very troubling. We calculate that the accelerated net new NPL growth has caused CITIC to be underprovided for in the neighborhood of CNY 101 bn or nearly a full year of stated PBT.

*Poor Result Even Before Provision Cut:China CITIC Bank (998.HK) [CITIC] reported 2H20 results of CNY 23.6 bn, declining CNY 3.6 bn (13.3%) HOH. Unlike other mainland Chinese banks, CITIC gives almost no breakdown of revenues. Nevertheless, the poor HOH results were driven by negative operating jaws as revenues declined CNY 9.2 bn (9.1%) while operating expenses increased CNY 6.6 bn (27.8%); and*Credit Still A Major Challenge: Riskier and chunkier real estate and construction NPLs increased 211 bp and 293 bp HOH, respectively. Further, we note zero reprieve in net new NPL growth at CNY 41.1 bn  - growing 106.9% on an annualized basis – this remains very troubling. We calculate that the accelerated net new NPL growth has caused CITIC to be underprovided for in the neighborhood of CNY 101 bn or nearly a full year of stated PBT.

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Executive Summary: Surprisingly strong US non-farm payroll results on Friday may push yields higher as we start the week. Thereafter, rising Covid-19 cases and vaccine distribution issues may impinge on market sentiment, generating bouts of Treasury buying, a higher US dollar and a risk-off environment in general. These are opportunities to restock and reconsider risk-asset allocations.In a holiday shortened trading week, US Treasury yields had a relatively mild reaction to President Biden’s announced US$2.25 trillion infrastructure investment proposal. The US bond market was not open when March’s initial non-farm payroll (NFP) figures were announced on Friday. The NFP numbers suggest that the US economy is about to run hot. This should stoke reflation concerns as near term growth expectations rise.Covid-19 travel restrictions increased in Ontario, Canada as well as the entirety of France for the month of April. Meanwhile, the Philippines extended Covid-19 related restrictions in Manlla for an additional week through Sunday, 11 April.Amongst Asia EM banks, Philippine bank equity continued their underperformance with the recent lock-down announcements, while China’s banks remained relatively unchanged following year-end result disclosures. Philippine bank shares are lagging their peers in Asia.China’s Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) outlined its proposals for additional capital buffers that would apply to domestically significant financial institutions. S&amp;P estimates that the largest banks need to issue as much as 6.5 trillion-yuan ($990 billion) in total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) debt capital by 2024 in order to meet Basel TLAC guidelines. We should see a build-up of this debt capital over the next few years with a material portion in non-local currency instruments. In Europe, Monday’s announcement by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-suisse-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22253:1" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse (CSGN VX)</a> that losses from exiting Archegos Capital Management could be “highly significant and material” had a materially adverse impact on investor sentiment regarding the firm. We noted in late February that CS’ risk tolerance exceeded that of its peers while its risk management appeared to have challenges. We were fortunate to be ahead of the market with our Underweight recommendation on CS bonds. When we initiated this call, the CS 4.5% coupon 2030 callable Additional Tier 1 bond was trading close to par. It is now below $94. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/49970/Credit%20Suisse:%20Where%20There%E2%80%99s%20Smoke,%20There%E2%80%99s%20a%20Capital%20Raise.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/yxeJd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse: Where There’s Smoke, There’s a Capital Raise</a> for more details.In Asia, long duration Subordinated, and Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bank bonds outperformed as Treasury notes sold-off slightly during the week. Concurrently, the belly of the European bank debt curve outperformed as these bonds narrowed by more than weakness in five-year Treasury’s.Market Outlook: From 1 April, with the start of Japan’s fiscal year, Japanese investors are typically net buyers of risk assets over the following months. This adds to a seasonality affect that usually pushes risk assets higher while safe-haven securities retreat. April may be a positive month from a total return basis, provided US Treasuries do not sell-off materially on inflation concerns.

Executive Summary: Surprisingly strong US non-farm payroll results on Friday may push yields higher as we start the week. Thereafter, rising Covid-19 cases and vaccine distribution issues may impinge on market sentiment, generating bouts of Treasury buying, a higher US dollar and a risk-off environment in general. These are opportunities to restock and reconsider risk-asset allocations.In a holiday shortened trading week, US Treasury yields had a relatively mild reaction to President Biden’s announced US$2.25 trillion infrastructure investment proposal. The US bond market was not open when March’s initial non-farm payroll (NFP) figures were announced on Friday. The NFP numbers suggest that the US economy is about to run hot. This should stoke reflation concerns as near term growth expectations rise.Covid-19 travel restrictions increased in Ontario, Canada as well as the entirety of France for the month of April. Meanwhile, the Philippines extended Covid-19 related restrictions in Manlla for an additional week through Sunday, 11 April.Amongst Asia EM banks, Philippine bank equity continued their underperformance with the recent lock-down announcements, while China’s banks remained relatively unchanged following year-end result disclosures. Philippine bank shares are lagging their peers in Asia.China’s Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) outlined its proposals for additional capital buffers that would apply to domestically significant financial institutions. S&amp;P estimates that the largest banks need to issue as much as 6.5 trillion-yuan ($990 billion) in total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC) debt capital by 2024 in order to meet Basel TLAC guidelines. We should see a build-up of this debt capital over the next few years with a material portion in non-local currency instruments. In Europe, Monday’s announcement by Credit Suisse (CSGN VX) that losses from exiting Archegos Capital Management could be “highly significant and material” had a materially adverse impact on investor sentiment regarding the firm. We noted in late February that CS’ risk tolerance exceeded that of its peers while its risk management appeared to have challenges. We were fortunate to be ahead of the market with our Underweight recommendation on CS bonds. When we initiated this call, the CS 4.5% coupon 2030 callable Additional Tier 1 bond was trading close to par. It is now below $94. Please see Credit Suisse: Where There’s Smoke, There’s a Capital Raise for more details.In Asia, long duration Subordinated, and Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bank bonds outperformed as Treasury notes sold-off slightly during the week. Concurrently, the belly of the European bank debt curve outperformed as these bonds narrowed by more than weakness in five-year Treasury’s.Market Outlook: From 1 April, with the start of Japan’s fiscal year, Japanese investors are typically net buyers of risk assets over the following months. This adds to a seasonality affect that usually pushes risk assets higher while safe-haven securities retreat. April may be a positive month from a total return basis, provided US Treasuries do not sell-off materially on inflation concerns.

Bank Credit Weekly: Employment Numbers Confirm a Hot US Economy

Global Bank Equity Specialist, Creative Portfolios

Paul Hollingworth

Global Bank Equity Specialist

Creative Portfolios

Big bertha ICBC dedicates itself to mainly corporate credit (59.6% of Loan book) but also consumer segments, with mortgages commanding a high weighting, backed by a balance of time deposits and transaction accounts.As elsewhere in China, FY20/19 results show subpar fundamental momentum and trends. However, results can be characterized by light deterioration in general as changes in key variables were not so pronounced. Asset Quality is where the greatest erosion took place with impaired Loans, net of Reserves and the “doubtful loan” and “substandard loan” buckets in particular showing outsized growth, indicating bad asset migration. Elsewhere, there was a modest reduction in Profitability and in Liquidity. There was also lightweight erosion in NIM plus Spread and in Equity/Assets (and in CET1) though other Capitalization ratios were marginally better while Provisioning was flat and most probably remains on the light side while Efficiency was slightly better. “Core Income” showed muted growth YoY despite a moderate Balance Sheet expansion, while a non-extreme increase in LLPs (and other asset write downs) still exerted a negative impact on Comprehensive Income which eased by 6.9% YoY.<div class="content-highlight">A FV of 8%, a PBV of 0.63x, a Dividend Yield of 5.6%, an Earnings Yield of 18.1% and a Total Return Ratio of 2.4x are far from unappealing. The bank commands a subpar/mediocre PH Score™ (4.0) which captures value-quality trends, including a supportive valuation variable. This Score may seem harsh to the bank given the modest nature of erosion across variables, reflecting at best a flattish picture, though the underlying Balance Sheet dynamics of Asset Quality deterioration, a limited LLP rise, and intensification of charge-off growth, and what looks like soft Reserving are not ideal. The PH Score™ may be capturing the creeping erosion.</div>

Big bertha ICBC dedicates itself to mainly corporate credit (59.6% of Loan book) but also consumer segments, with mortgages commanding a high weighting, backed by a balance of time deposits and transaction accounts.As elsewhere in China, FY20/19 results show subpar fundamental momentum and trends. However, results can be characterized by light deterioration in general as changes in key variables were not so pronounced. Asset Quality is where the greatest erosion took place with impaired Loans, net of Reserves and the “doubtful loan” and “substandard loan” buckets in particular showing outsized growth, indicating bad asset migration. Elsewhere, there was a modest reduction in Profitability and in Liquidity. There was also lightweight erosion in NIM plus Spread and in Equity/Assets (and in CET1) though other Capitalization ratios were marginally better while Provisioning was flat and most probably remains on the light side while Efficiency was slightly better. “Core Income” showed muted growth YoY despite a moderate Balance Sheet expansion, while a non-extreme increase in LLPs (and other asset write downs) still exerted a negative impact on Comprehensive Income which eased by 6.9% YoY.A FV of 8%, a PBV of 0.63x, a Dividend Yield of 5.6%, an Earnings Yield of 18.1% and a Total Return Ratio of 2.4x are far from unappealing. The bank commands a subpar/mediocre PH Score™ (4.0) which captures value-quality trends, including a supportive valuation variable. This Score may seem harsh to the bank given the modest nature of erosion across variables, reflecting at best a flattish picture, though the underlying Balance Sheet dynamics of Asset Quality deterioration, a limited LLP rise, and intensification of charge-off growth, and what looks like soft Reserving are not ideal. The PH Score™ may be capturing the creeping erosion.

ICBC: Subpar-Mediocre Trends but Inexpensive

China Construction Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

*Hefty Expense Load In 4Q20: China Construction Bank (939.HK) [CCB] reported 4Q20 results of CNY 65.2 bn, declining CNY 3.0 bn or 4.4% linked quarter. On an operating basis, core earnings declined CNY 4.8 bn (7.5%) linked quarter to CNY 59.1 bn. Results weakness can be attributed to a massive increase in operating expenses and higher taxes; and *Credit Risk Rising: CCB’s While the stated NPL increase in not alarming on its face, the level of net new NPLs – inclusive of NCOs of CNY 27.3 bn – amounted to CNY 32.5 bn or increasing 50.9% on an annualized basis. We also believe that there will be an impact from WMPs. CCB's Non-standard credit asset faced some impact in LGFV and infrastructure. However, when one considers the continued high level break-down in credit quality, reserves would appear to be incredibly light – in the neighborhood of CNY 300 bn which amounts to nearly a year of pre-tax results at CCB.

*Hefty Expense Load In 4Q20: China Construction Bank (939.HK) [CCB] reported 4Q20 results of CNY 65.2 bn, declining CNY 3.0 bn or 4.4% linked quarter. On an operating basis, core earnings declined CNY 4.8 bn (7.5%) linked quarter to CNY 59.1 bn. Results weakness can be attributed to a massive increase in operating expenses and higher taxes; and *Credit Risk Rising: CCB’s While the stated NPL increase in not alarming on its face, the level of net new NPLs – inclusive of NCOs of CNY 27.3 bn – amounted to CNY 32.5 bn or increasing 50.9% on an annualized basis. We also believe that there will be an impact from WMPs. CCB's Non-standard credit asset faced some impact in LGFV and infrastructure. However, when one considers the continued high level break-down in credit quality, reserves would appear to be incredibly light – in the neighborhood of CNY 300 bn which amounts to nearly a year of pre-tax results at CCB.      

China Construction Bank – Still Chunky NPL Increases

Postal Savings Bank of China C / Equity Bottom-Up

*Excess Provisioning Eats Away At 4Q20 Results: Established in 2007, Postal Savings Bank of China (1658.HK) [PSB] is mainland China’s youngest large commercial bank. PSB reported 4Q20 results of CNY 11.4 bn – decreasing CNY 7.8 bn (40.8%) linked quarter. PSB’s struggles were twofold: loss provisions were too high; and an operating expenses accelerated; and * Credit Quality Risk Peaking: HOH, stated NPLs nominally increased CNY 605 mn or 1.2% to CNY 50.4 bn and amount to 88 bp to total loans – flat linked quarter. The growth in level of net new NPLs was CNY 9.3 bn or decelerating to 18.4% on an annualized basis. PSB’s loss provision increased CNY 2.9 bn (41.1%) linked quarter, almost seeming pointless given the reserve cover of 4.01x (4.03x at 3Q20) and the annualized NCO rate of 61 bp.

*Excess Provisioning Eats Away At 4Q20 Results: Established in 2007, Postal Savings Bank of China (1658.HK) [PSB] is mainland China’s youngest large commercial bank. PSB reported 4Q20 results of CNY 11.4 bn – decreasing CNY 7.8 bn (40.8%) linked quarter. PSB’s struggles were twofold: loss provisions were too high; and an operating expenses accelerated; and * Credit Quality Risk Peaking: HOH, stated NPLs nominally increased CNY 605 mn or 1.2% to CNY 50.4 bn and amount to 88 bp to total loans – flat linked quarter. The growth in level of net new NPLs was CNY 9.3 bn or decelerating to 18.4% on an annualized basis. PSB’s loss provision increased CNY 2.9 bn (41.1%) linked quarter, almost seeming pointless given the reserve cover of 4.01x (4.03x at 3Q20) and the annualized NCO rate of 61 bp.

Postal Savings Bank of China – Excess Provisioning

China

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund underwriting, foreign currency settlement, and other services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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ICBC (H) (1398 HK)

China CITIC Bank – No Credit Deserved

China CITIC Bank: CITIC reported poor 2H20 results. Poor results were driven by negative operating jaws. Riskier real estate/construction NPLs...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Credit Weekly: Employment Numbers Confirm a Hot US Economy

Strong US employment figures may push yields higher as we start the week. Thereafter, rising virus versus vaccine issues may impact market...

Hank Calenti, CFA

ICBC: Subpar-Mediocre Trends but Inexpensive

Strategic big bertha ICBC reports subpar-mediocre fundamental momentum, stemming from Asset Quality issues. Shares are not expensive though.

Paul Hollingworth

China Construction Bank – Still Chunky NPL Increases

CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK: CCB reported a 4Q20 core earnings results decline 7.5% QOQ. Weakness can be attributed to a massive increase in costs and...

Thomas J. Monaco

Postal Savings Bank of China – Excess Provisioning

POSTAL SAVINGS BANK: PSB reported a 40.8% decline in QOQ results, as loss provisioning was too high relative to risk is peaking; and an operating...

Thomas J. Monaco

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