Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It is easy to understand why there has been and remains so much hope regarding the profitability of China’s banks. The simple answer is penetration. Here we are referring to how accessible banking is to the population, and we measure this by population/bank branches. Where banking is less accessible and limited, there is less competition and a greater ability for banks to charge high prices.This should be reflected in the variance of net interest margins by country. But it is not this simple…

It is easy to understand why there has been and remains so much hope regarding the profitability of China’s banks. The simple answer is penetration. Here we are referring to how accessible banking is to the population, and we measure this by population/bank branches. Where banking is less accessible and limited, there is less competition and a greater ability for banks to charge high prices.This should be reflected in the variance of net interest margins by country. But it is not this simple…

Asia-Pacific: Branch Banking and Profitability

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li class="p1">All fixed-income indexes posted especially strong returns considering the current low-yield environment, because of falling interest rates and narrowing credit spreads</li><li class="p1">After many years of underperformance, value stocks reasserted themselves in the first quarter, outperforming growth</li><li class="p1">A year ago, small stocks looked overvalued, but after a 9.8% drop (versus a 1.8% gain for large stocks), they are now closer to fairly valued territory</li></ul>Analysts: Bob Johnson, Timothy Strauts, Alina Lamy

All fixed-income indexes posted especially strong returns considering the current low-yield environment, because of falling interest rates and narrowing credit spreadsAfter many years of underperformance, value stocks reasserted themselves in the first quarter, outperforming growthA year ago, small stocks looked overvalued, but after a 9.8% drop (versus a 1.8% gain for large stocks), they are now closer to fairly valued territoryAnalysts: Bob Johnson, Timothy Strauts, Alina Lamy

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

A lot of how you decide to view the Chinese April trade and foreign exchange report, depends on what exactly you measured.  April exports were higher than March exports but were down YoY and YTD YoY if measured in USD.  However, if measured in RMB exports YoY was actually up 4% but remains down YTD 2.3%.  In some ways, this data can be viewed positively or negatively, but I am going to try and help provide some personal perspective.<ol><li>While the month to month and year over year snapshots are…</li></ol>

A lot of how you decide to view the Chinese April trade and foreign exchange report, depends on what exactly you measured.  April exports were higher than March exports but were down YoY and YTD YoY if measured in USD.  However, if measured in RMB exports YoY was actually up 4% but remains down YTD 2.3%.  In some ways, this data can be viewed positively or negatively, but I am going to try and help provide some personal perspective.While the month to month and year over year snapshots are…

The upcoming foreign exchange reserve and trade balance release give us a good opportunity to examine the post-Chinese New Year capital and goods flows in light of the strengthening RMB.  While the trade surplus, FX reserves, and outflows should be closely linked given the unique factors of Chinese data, we need to explore them carefully.Let us begin with trade data.  Chinese data shows strong seasonality with March and April being the months with the largest level of month over month changes…

The upcoming foreign exchange reserve and trade balance release give us a good opportunity to examine the post-Chinese New Year capital and goods flows in light of the strengthening RMB.  While the trade surplus, FX reserves, and outflows should be closely linked given the unique factors of Chinese data, we need to explore them carefully.Let us begin with trade data.  Chinese data shows strong seasonality with March and April being the months with the largest level of month over month changes…

Lots of ink or ones and zeros in today’s world about the explosion of credit propping up the Chinese economy.  So much so that I really will not rehash this plot of land.  I think what is interesting, and really most worrying, is how little impact the credit explosion has had on real economic activity.The current credit explosion we are witnessing in China is bigger in absolute term than some of the post-GFC pops in credit and by some relative measures even bigger in relative terms.  Only the…

Lots of ink or ones and zeros in today’s world about the explosion of credit propping up the Chinese economy.  So much so that I really will not rehash this plot of land.  I think what is interesting, and really most worrying, is how little impact the credit explosion has had on real economic activity.The current credit explosion we are witnessing in China is bigger in absolute term than some of the post-GFC pops in credit and by some relative measures even bigger in relative terms.  Only the…

What Is Really Worrying About the Chinese Credit Bubble

China

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund underwriting, foreign currency settlement, and other services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

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ICBC (H) (1398 HK)

Asia-Pacific: Branch Banking and Profitability

It is easy to understand why there has been and remains so much hope regarding the profitability of China’s banks. The simple answer is...

Daniel Tabbush

Morningstar Markets Observer: Q2 2016

All fixed-income indexes posted especially strong returns considering the current low-yield environment, because of falling interest rates and...

Morningstar, Inc.

April Trade Data and FX Reserve

A lot of how you decide to view the Chinese April trade and foreign exchange report, depends on what exactly you measured. April exports were...

Christopher Balding

Trade and FX Reserve Pre-Release Note

The upcoming foreign exchange reserve and trade balance release give us a good opportunity to examine the post-Chinese New Year capital and goods...

Christopher Balding

What Is Really Worrying About the Chinese Credit Bubble

Lots of ink or ones and zeros in today’s world about the explosion of credit propping up the Chinese economy. So much so that I really will not...

Christopher Balding

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)