India Financials

Saumya Agarwal

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Indian Banks have built up huge ammunition of Covid related and contingent provisions even as the ‘Real’ NPA picture remains somewhat obscure due to multiple factors playing out such as Moratorium, the Supreme Court interim order and the Restructuring framework. How well placed are Indian Banks to ride the current stress cycle?

Indian Banks have built up huge ammunition of Covid related and contingent provisions even as the ‘Real’ NPA picture remains somewhat obscure due to multiple factors playing out such as Moratorium, the Supreme Court interim order and the Restructuring framework. How well placed are Indian Banks to ride the current stress cycle?

Indian Banks: How Well-Placed Are Indian Banks to Ride the Current Stress Cycle?

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Stronger than expected US employment data combined with uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next steps to drive broader credit markets wider by weekend, although financials remained better bid. Taperless tantrums may be repeated over the near term but financials may be less impacted.While US CCC-rated bonds and Asia High Yield sold-off, almost all European contingent capital and Asia High Yield bonds tightened in credit spread terms as investors remained anchored to banks as an economic recovery play. Investors grabbed longer duration Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds as the week progressed, on economic strength expectations, while lower duration Senior Unsecured bonds outperformed on rising interest rate expectations. Friday’s non-farm report generated concerns on European growth in a rising rate environment. Queue central bank assurances that they will respond to rising rates over the next few weeks.Despite higher spreads available in more moderate duration AT1 notes, Europe's outperformers were almost exclusively long duration bonds. This outperformance is a very bullish signal. However, we are not convinced that this should apply to each of these institutions.  Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/credit-suisse-greensill-sows-reputation-risks-underweight-cs-bonds" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48839" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse: Greensill Sows Reputation Risks, Underweight CS Bonds</a> for further details.Financials remain the sweet spot in Asia credit. Levered to the economy and rising rates, this is the place to be at this point in the market cycle.  Performance attributes varied amongst the various bank credit classes in Asia. Risk-on sentiment drove higher risk AT1 and less subordinated Tier 2 bonds tighter. Meanwhile duration concerns drove investors to target higher spreads per unit of duration in BBB-rated and High Yield Senior Unsecured notes. Taken together, this performance outcome is likely evidence of the melt-up in spreads that we anticipated several weeks ago. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-credit-strategy-melt-up-before-meltdown-where-to-position" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48133" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Strategy: Melt-Up Before Meltdown, Where to Position</a> for more details.Admittedly, however, we are surprised by the credit strength of Asia-headquartered financials during the global rates rout. We attribute this to two items. First, China is further along the Covid-19 curve in recovery and will clearly benefit as the rest of the world catches-up. Second, financials are a leverage play on the global recovery. Taken together, Asia financials overall are well placed to continue outperforming other markets over the near term.Market Outlook: The Fed will likely Twist before it Tapers, but the timing of both remain uncertain as real long term interest rates remain negative. In the interim, global treasury markets may remain unsettled. The US economy may run very hot before we see a change in Fed policy regarding short-term interest rates and the US dollar should remain stronger than analysts forecasted at year-end. Broadly, this is not Emerging Market IEM) friendly; however, a strong US economic rebound should benefit EM and European financials. Short duration in investment grade financials combined with high credit spreads in High Yield financials and more subordinated debt may remain the way forward.

Stronger than expected US employment data combined with uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s next steps to drive broader credit markets wider by weekend, although financials remained better bid. Taperless tantrums may be repeated over the near term but financials may be less impacted.While US CCC-rated bonds and Asia High Yield sold-off, almost all European contingent capital and Asia High Yield bonds tightened in credit spread terms as investors remained anchored to banks as an economic recovery play. Investors grabbed longer duration Additional Tier 1 (AT1) bonds as the week progressed, on economic strength expectations, while lower duration Senior Unsecured bonds outperformed on rising interest rate expectations. Friday’s non-farm report generated concerns on European growth in a rising rate environment. Queue central bank assurances that they will respond to rising rates over the next few weeks.Despite higher spreads available in more moderate duration AT1 notes, Europe's outperformers were almost exclusively long duration bonds. This outperformance is a very bullish signal. However, we are not convinced that this should apply to each of these institutions.  Please see Credit Suisse: Greensill Sows Reputation Risks, Underweight CS Bonds for further details.Financials remain the sweet spot in Asia credit. Levered to the economy and rising rates, this is the place to be at this point in the market cycle.  Performance attributes varied amongst the various bank credit classes in Asia. Risk-on sentiment drove higher risk AT1 and less subordinated Tier 2 bonds tighter. Meanwhile duration concerns drove investors to target higher spreads per unit of duration in BBB-rated and High Yield Senior Unsecured notes. Taken together, this performance outcome is likely evidence of the melt-up in spreads that we anticipated several weeks ago. Please see Bank Credit Strategy: Melt-Up Before Meltdown, Where to Position for more details.Admittedly, however, we are surprised by the credit strength of Asia-headquartered financials during the global rates rout. We attribute this to two items. First, China is further along the Covid-19 curve in recovery and will clearly benefit as the rest of the world catches-up. Second, financials are a leverage play on the global recovery. Taken together, Asia financials overall are well placed to continue outperforming other markets over the near term.Market Outlook: The Fed will likely Twist before it Tapers, but the timing of both remain uncertain as real long term interest rates remain negative. In the interim, global treasury markets may remain unsettled. The US economy may run very hot before we see a change in Fed policy regarding short-term interest rates and the US dollar should remain stronger than analysts forecasted at year-end. Broadly, this is not Emerging Market IEM) friendly; however, a strong US economic rebound should benefit EM and European financials. Short duration in investment grade financials combined with high credit spreads in High Yield financials and more subordinated debt may remain the way forward.

Bank Credit Weekly: One Size Does Not Fit All

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Negative Operating Remain Troubling: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 4Q20 results of SGD 1.0 bn, declining SGD 285 mn (22.0%) on a linked quarter basis. Results remain troubling across the board, as this is the second consecutive quarter that DBS reported negative operating jaws whilst the decline in loss provisions reversed course on weaker credit;*Credit Risk Challenges Management: We remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs, as this improvement would appear to be in contravention to the stress being experienced regionally. By our calculation, we find that net new NPLs continue to increase – up SGD 631 mn or increasing 41.7% on an annualized basis – more than doubling the figures of SGD 272 mn or 18.9% on an annualized basis for 3Q20. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.8bn – amounting now to three plus full quarters of results, comparing very unfavorably to the SGD 1.3 bn calculated (one quarter of results) just a quarter earlier and suggest that Lakshmi Vilas Bank’s (LVB) risk is not under the control; and *India Deal Poses Significant Challenges: : By our calculation and based on LVB’s FY 2Q21 results, the company would appear to be insolvent to the tune of INR 39 bn – nearly 56% greater than the DBS Bank India capital infusion. LVB loses money on an operating basis prior to loss provisions, as revenues (no clarity on what is recurring) of INR 15.4 bn are less than operating expenses of INR 16.0 bn – or by 3.7% at FY 2Q21; et al.  DBS expects DBS India to return to profitability and that the LVB deal will be ROE accretive over the next 12-24 months. We’d like some of what management is smoking.

*Negative Operating Remain Troubling: DBS Group Holdings (DBS.SP) [DBS] reported 4Q20 results of SGD 1.0 bn, declining SGD 285 mn (22.0%) on a linked quarter basis. Results remain troubling across the board, as this is the second consecutive quarter that DBS reported negative operating jaws whilst the decline in loss provisions reversed course on weaker credit;*Credit Risk Challenges Management: We remain unconvinced that the moratorium exits are anything more than additional reliance on government schemes and relief programs, as this improvement would appear to be in contravention to the stress being experienced regionally. By our calculation, we find that net new NPLs continue to increase – up SGD 631 mn or increasing 41.7% on an annualized basis – more than doubling the figures of SGD 272 mn or 18.9% on an annualized basis for 3Q20. We feel that reserves should be shored up in the neighborhood of SGD 2.8bn – amounting now to three plus full quarters of results, comparing very unfavorably to the SGD 1.3 bn calculated (one quarter of results) just a quarter earlier and suggest that Lakshmi Vilas Bank’s (LVB) risk is not under the control; and *India Deal Poses Significant Challenges: : By our calculation and based on LVB’s FY 2Q21 results, the company would appear to be insolvent to the tune of INR 39 bn – nearly 56% greater than the DBS Bank India capital infusion. LVB loses money on an operating basis prior to loss provisions, as revenues (no clarity on what is recurring) of INR 15.4 bn are less than operating expenses of INR 16.0 bn – or by 3.7% at FY 2Q21; et al.  DBS expects DBS India to return to profitability and that the LVB deal will be ROE accretive over the next 12-24 months. We’d like some of what management is smoking. 

DBS Group Holdings – COVID & India Not A Good Combo

* It Just Keeps Getting Worse: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) [PNB] reported net income of INR 5.1 bn, declining INR 1.1 bn (18.5%) linked quarter. Three factors drove the poor result: a) net interest income declined INR 627 mn (0.8%) despite loan growth of 1.2%, as the NIM declined 9 bp to 2.93%; b) a loss provision increase of INR 5.8 bn (14.0%). Despite the increase, provisioins still fell short given the acerating level of credit risk; and c) a 10.6% linked quarter increase in PNB’s tax rate to 47.2%, which detracted INR 1.0 bn from the bottom-line; and*Credit Risk Leads to Capital Shortfall: Inclusive of the INR 9.6 bn NCO, we find that PNB’s level of net new NPLs actually increased INR 82.6 bn or 33.3% on an annualized basis. While we have very little confidence in PNB’s reporting of problem assets at this stage, we take their word for current NPLs and find that at a minimum loss reserves are light by at least INR 730 mn  - or approximately 100% of stated book value. This is without accounting for the delayed or backlog provisions associated fraud accounts and ageing provisions to be complete in FY 1H21.

* It Just Keeps Getting Worse: Punjab National Bank (PNB.IN) [PNB] reported net income of INR 5.1 bn, declining INR 1.1 bn (18.5%) linked quarter. Three factors drove the poor result: a) net interest income declined INR 627 mn (0.8%) despite loan growth of 1.2%, as the NIM declined 9 bp to 2.93%; b) a loss provision increase of INR 5.8 bn (14.0%). Despite the increase, provisioins still fell short given the acerating level of credit risk; and c) a 10.6% linked quarter increase in PNB’s tax rate to 47.2%, which detracted INR 1.0 bn from the bottom-line; and*Credit Risk Leads to Capital Shortfall: Inclusive of the INR 9.6 bn NCO, we find that PNB’s level of net new NPLs actually increased INR 82.6 bn or 33.3% on an annualized basis. While we have very little confidence in PNB’s reporting of problem assets at this stage, we take their word for current NPLs and find that at a minimum loss reserves are light by at least INR 730 mn  - or approximately 100% of stated book value. This is without accounting for the delayed or backlog provisions associated fraud accounts and ageing provisions to be complete in FY 1H21.  

*Better Bottom-line Doesn’t Tell Entire Story: State Bank of India (SBIN.IN) [SBI] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 55.8 bn, increasing INR 10.1 bn (22.1%) linked quarter. On top of a significant (albeit completely unwarranted) INR 55.0 bn (58.1%) decline in loss provisions, results were also highlighted by a turnaround in SBI’s operating jaws which are now positive; and*Reserve Challenge Should Lead To Capital Raise: While we note a net recovery of INR 48.4 bn (likely a non-recurring event given the exorbitant credit risk), we still find that net new NPLs increased INR 145.7 bn for an annualized increase of 41.6%.  By our calculation, we find that SBI’s reserves are short INR 1.2 bn - nearly four years of pre-tax results or 61% of market-cap.

*Better Bottom-line Doesn’t Tell Entire Story: State Bank of India (SBIN.IN) [SBI] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 55.8 bn, increasing INR 10.1 bn (22.1%) linked quarter. On top of a significant (albeit completely unwarranted) INR 55.0 bn (58.1%) decline in loss provisions, results were also highlighted by a turnaround in SBI’s operating jaws which are now positive; and*Reserve Challenge Should Lead To Capital Raise: While we note a net recovery of INR 48.4 bn (likely a non-recurring event given the exorbitant credit risk), we still find that net new NPLs increased INR 145.7 bn for an annualized increase of 41.6%.  By our calculation, we find that SBI’s reserves are short INR 1.2 bn - nearly four years of pre-tax results or 61% of market-cap. 

India

IndusInd Bank Limited is a Mumbai-based Indian new generation bank established in 1994. The Bank provides a range of banking and financial services including  wholesale banking, credit monitoring, risk management, tele-banking, investment banking and commercial lending. IndusInd Bank operates branches throughout India as well as an office in Dubai and London.

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Indusind Bank (IIB IN)

Indian Banks: How Well-Placed Are Indian Banks to Ride the Current Stress Cycle?

Indian Banks have built up huge ammunition of Covid related and contingent provisions even as the ‘Real’ NPA picture remains somewhat obscure . Can...

Saumya Agarwal

Bank Credit Weekly: One Size Does Not Fit All

Performance attributes varied amongst bank credit classes. Short duration in IG financials combined with high credit spreads in HY and more...

Hank Calenti, CFA

DBS Group Holdings – COVID & India Not A Good Combo

DBS GROUP HOLDINGS: DBS reported a 4Q20 results decline of 22.0% linked quarter. Results remain troubling across the board. India deal poses...

Thomas J. Monaco

Punjab National Bank – Match Is Lit

PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK: PNB reported a net income decline of 18.5% linked quarter. Despite the increase, provisions still fell short to the tune of...

Thomas J. Monaco

State Bank of India – Bad Credit

STATE BANK OF INDIA: SBI reported FY 3Q21 result increase of 22.1%) linked quarter led by a completely unwarranted 58.1% decline in provisions and...

Thomas J. Monaco

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