European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Indra is shifting to a pure-play defence and space company, divesting from IT services (Minsait) to achieve higher valuation multiples in line with aerospace and defence peers.</li>
<li>Hispasat and Hisdesat acquisition will generate €400 million in revenue and €190 million EBITDA by 2026, with synergies reaching €50-70 million EBITDA by 2030.</li>
<li>Indra’s valuation could rise 40-60% by 2026, as defence and space grow to 65% of revenue, increasing EV/EBITDA multiples from ~7x to 10-12x.</li>
</ul>


Indra is shifting to a pure-play defence and space company, divesting from IT services (Minsait) to achieve higher valuation multiples in line with aerospace and defence peers.
Hispasat and Hisdesat acquisition will generate €400 million in revenue and €190 million EBITDA by 2026, with synergies reaching €50-70 million EBITDA by 2030.
Indra’s valuation could rise 40-60% by 2026, as defence and space grow to 65% of revenue, increasing EV/EBITDA multiples from ~7x to 10-12x.


Indra’s Transformation into a Pure-Play Defence and Space Company

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Indra Sistemas S.A. is positioned for success with increasing defense spending in Europe and growth in digital transformation services</li><li>Strategic focus on higher-margin Defense business and potential margin improvements in legacy IT segment expected to lead to significant margin expansion</li><li>Strong revenue growth, expanding profitability, robust order intake, and market leadership making Indra an attractive investment opportunity at an undemanding valuation.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Indra Sistemas S.A. is positioned for success with increasing defense spending in Europe and growth in digital transformation servicesStrategic focus on higher-margin Defense business and potential margin improvements in legacy IT segment expected to lead to significant margin expansionStrong revenue growth, expanding profitability, robust order intake, and market leadership making Indra an attractive investment opportunity at an undemanding valuation.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Indra Sistemas Sa (ISMAY) - Friday, Aug 9, 2024

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>You could label <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)</a>"BULLISH" because the stock goes up rather than down; but you could easily label this BEARISH because the prospects aren't exciting.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a>spins off <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smithfield-foods-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44251:1" rel="noopener">Smithfield Foods (SFD US)</a> - below the prior expected price range.  Pricing looks full here.</li>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a>'s Partial Offer heads towards the pointy end, do you buy, and/or borrow, and tender; short outright; or short tender?</li>
</ul>


You could label Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)"BULLISH" because the stock goes up rather than down; but you could easily label this BEARISH because the prospects aren't exciting.

WH Group (288 HK)spins off Smithfield Foods (SFD US) - below the prior expected price range.  Pricing looks full here.
As China National Building Material (3323 HK)'s Partial Offer heads towards the pointy end, do you buy, and/or borrow, and tender; short outright; or short tender?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Kyocera, WH Group/Smithfield, CNBM, Japan Eyewear, Core Concept Tech

<ul>
<li>According to daily Expansion, Ganz MaVag plans to reserve part of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/talgo-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21301:1" rel="noopener">Talgo SA (TLGO SM)</a>'s share capital for one or more Spanish partners chosen by the Spanish Government. </li>
<li>Uncertainty over the approval process has lowered the price to €4.31, given the low likelihood of counteroffers and the uncertainty of a potentially prolonged process.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 13.8%, indicating uncertainty regarding timeline and development. The market is pricing a 39% probability of deal completion. Recommendation is sell on strength.</li>
</ul>


According to daily Expansion, Ganz MaVag plans to reserve part of Talgo SA (TLGO SM)'s share capital for one or more Spanish partners chosen by the Spanish Government. 
Uncertainty over the approval process has lowered the price to €4.31, given the low likelihood of counteroffers and the uncertainty of a potentially prolonged process.
Gross spread is 13.8%, indicating uncertainty regarding timeline and development. The market is pricing a 39% probability of deal completion. Recommendation is sell on strength.


Ganz MaVag Offers Sweetener to Spanish Government

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Spain

Indra Sistemas, S.A. offers information technology products and services.  The Company offers systems integration and outsourcing services, installs railway management and ticketing systems, installs road traffic toll and signaling systems, constructs satellite communications systems, manufactures radar air defense systems, and installs insurance management systems.

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Indra Sistemas Sa (IDR SM)

Indra’s Transformation into a Pure-Play Defence and Space Company

Indra is focusing on defence and space, divesting from IT services to increase valuation multiples and potentially see a 40-60% rise in valuation...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Indra Sistemas Sa (ISMAY) - Friday, Aug 9, 2024

Indra Sistemas S.A. is positioned for success with increasing defense spending in Europe and growth in digital transformation services

Value Investors Club

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kyocera, WH Group/Smithfield, CNBM, Japan Eyewear, Core Concept Tech

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Ganz MaVag Offers Sweetener to Spanish Government

According to daily Expansion, Ganz MaVag plans to reserve part of Talgo SA (TLGO SM)'s share capital for one or more Spanish partners chosen by the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

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Indra’s Transformation into a Pure-Play Defence and Space Company

​Indra is focusing on defence and space, divesting from IT services to increase valuation multiples and potentially see a 40-60% rise in valuation...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Indra Sistemas Sa (ISMAY) - Friday, Aug 9, 2024

Indra Sistemas S.A. is positioned for success with increasing defense spending in Europe and growth in digital transformation services

Value Investors Club

Last Week in Event SPACE: Kyocera, WH Group/Smithfield, CNBM, Japan Eyewear, Core Concept Tech

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Ganz MaVag Offers Sweetener to Spanish Government

According to daily Expansion, Ganz MaVag plans to reserve part of Talgo SA (TLGO SM)'s share capital for one or more Spanish partners chosen by the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

Indra is focusing on defence and space, divesting from IT services to increase valuation multiples and potentially see a 40-60% rise in valuation...