ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this edition, we look at MY DIY Thailand's plans for an IPO, PropertyGuru's latest results, and the increase in M&amp;A activity in the Indonesian fibre-optic space.</li>
<li>We also look at the implications of GoTo's exit from Vietnam, as it increasingly focuses on profitability in its home market and Singapore.</li>
<li>CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.</li>
</ul>


In this edition, we look at MY DIY Thailand's plans for an IPO, PropertyGuru's latest results, and the increase in M&amp;A activity in the Indonesian fibre-optic space.
We also look at the implications of GoTo's exit from Vietnam, as it increasingly focuses on profitability in its home market and Singapore.
CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.


CrossASEAN Ground Zero - MR DIY Thailand IPO, PropertyGuru, Fibre Battles, and GoTo

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Our survey reveals that TSEL’s launch of TSEL Lite and non-Lite packs is targeted toward select segments; hence a marginal impact on IOH/XL.</li><li>We expect Starlink to play a complementary role in Indonesia’s remote areas, but shall offer inferior overall value to residential customers.</li><li>We maintain OW as the sector’s outlook remains constructive; ISAT is our top pick on the strongest earnings potential in 2Q24.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our survey reveals that TSEL’s launch of TSEL Lite and non-Lite packs is targeted toward select segments; hence a marginal impact on IOH/XL.We expect Starlink to play a complementary role in Indonesia’s remote areas, but shall offer inferior overall value to residential customers.We maintain OW as the sector’s outlook remains constructive; ISAT is our top pick on the strongest earnings potential in 2Q24.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Telco: Selective Competition and Limited Starlink Threat Imply a Constructive Outlook

<ul><li>Semiconductors enable telcos / AI startups to position in the ML and AI market and downstream computing power to their clients.</li><li>This will support SE Asia/Indonesia DCs significant growth in load capacity, favoring those that are tied with telcos with captive clientele. </li><li>Indonesian Telcos may benefit from connectivity and AIaas offerings, while TLKM benefits the most as it owns key DC infra; maintain OW</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semiconductors enable telcos / AI startups to position in the ML and AI market and downstream computing power to their clients.This will support SE Asia/Indonesia DCs significant growth in load capacity, favoring those that are tied with telcos with captive clientele. Indonesian Telcos may benefit from connectivity and AIaas offerings, while TLKM benefits the most as it owns key DC infra; maintain OWContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Telco: Poised to Reap Potential Upside from AI Proliferation (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>We project a softer FY24 EPS growth outlook of +3% yoy (vs. +5% prev.) amid slowing growth in 2Q24, but see limited further downside risk.</li><li>JCI’s current 1.8x PBV (22% disc. to 10-year mean) seems unwarranted as we forecast FY24 ROE to fall only slightly to 9.5% (vs. 10y avg of 10%).</li><li>We lower our FY24-end JCI target slightly to 7,670 (vs. 7,830 prev.); our stock picks favor defensive and quality names.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We project a softer FY24 EPS growth outlook of +3% yoy (vs. +5% prev.) amid slowing growth in 2Q24, but see limited further downside risk.JCI’s current 1.8x PBV (22% disc. to 10-year mean) seems unwarranted as we forecast FY24 ROE to fall only slightly to 9.5% (vs. 10y avg of 10%).We lower our FY24-end JCI target slightly to 7,670 (vs. 7,830 prev.); our stock picks favor defensive and quality names.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Growth Headwinds Priced In, but We Prefer Defensive and ‘quality’ Amid Lingering Uncertainties

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Amman Mineral Internasional / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>The largest passive inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indosat-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5737:1" rel="noopener">Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 constituent changes for the LQ45 Index and 6 constituent changes for the IDX80 Index at the rebalance to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive inflows are expected in Amman Mineral Internasional (AMMN IJ), Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) and Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ). 
With only 4 days to implementation, there could be relatively big moves on stocks that have large flow/impact from passive fund trading.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

Indonesia

PT Indosat Tbk is a telecommunication and information service provider in Indonesia that provides cellular services (prepaid and postpaid), fixed data services or MIDI (Multimedia, Internet & Data Communication) and fixed voice services including fixed wireless access services.

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Indosat Tbk PT (ISAT IJ)

CrossASEAN Ground Zero - MR DIY Thailand IPO, PropertyGuru, Fibre Battles, and GoTo

In this edition, we look at MY DIY Thailand's plans for an IPO, PropertyGuru's latest results, and the increase in M&A activity in the Indonesian...

Angus Mackintosh

Telco: Selective Competition and Limited Starlink Threat Imply a Constructive Outlook

Our survey reveals that TSEL’s launch of TSEL Lite and non-Lite packs is targeted toward select segments; hence a marginal impact on IOH/XL.

BRI Danareksa Research

Telco: Poised to Reap Potential Upside from AI Proliferation (OVERWEIGHT)

Semiconductors enable telcos / AI startups to position in the ML and AI market and downstream computing power to their clients.

BRI Danareksa Research

Growth Headwinds Priced In, but We Prefer Defensive and ‘quality’ Amid Lingering Uncertainties

We project a softer FY24 EPS growth outlook of +3% yoy (vs. +5% prev.) amid slowing growth in 2Q24, but see limited further downside risk

BRI Danareksa Research

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

The Indonesian indices rebalance at the close today and there will be multiple days of volume going through on some stocks.

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CrossASEAN Ground Zero - MR DIY Thailand IPO, PropertyGuru, Fibre Battles, and GoTo

In this edition, we look at MY DIY Thailand's plans for an IPO, PropertyGuru's latest results, and the increase in M&A activity in the Indonesian...

Angus Mackintosh

Telco: Selective Competition and Limited Starlink Threat Imply a Constructive Outlook

Our survey reveals that TSEL’s launch of TSEL Lite and non-Lite packs is targeted toward select segments; hence a marginal impact on IOH/XL.

BRI Danareksa Research

Telco: Poised to Reap Potential Upside from AI Proliferation (OVERWEIGHT)

Semiconductors enable telcos / AI startups to position in the ML and AI market and downstream computing power to their clients.

BRI Danareksa Research

Growth Headwinds Priced In, but We Prefer Defensive and ‘quality’ Amid Lingering Uncertainties

We project a softer FY24 EPS growth outlook of +3% yoy (vs. +5% prev.) amid slowing growth in 2Q24, but see limited further downside risk

BRI Danareksa Research

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks

The Indonesian indices rebalance at the close today and there will be multiple days of volume going through on some stocks.

Brian Freitas

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: BIG Flows for Some Stocks