External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Decisions are contingent upon the dataset Federal Reserve members are currently awaiting additional corroborating data to affirm the necessity of commencing the reduction of its benchmark interest rate.</li><li>Despite expressing uncertainty regarding the imminent return of inflation to the 2% threshold, these members maintain the view that the downward trajectory of inflation persists.</li><li>However, recent data points indicate a moderation in the United States economy, as evidenced by the downward revision of the second-quarter 2024 US GDP during its second reading. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Decisions are contingent upon the dataset Federal Reserve members are currently awaiting additional corroborating data to affirm the necessity of commencing the reduction of its benchmark interest rate.Despite expressing uncertainty regarding the imminent return of inflation to the 2% threshold, these members maintain the view that the downward trajectory of inflation persists.However, recent data points indicate a moderation in the United States economy, as evidenced by the downward revision of the second-quarter 2024 US GDP during its second reading. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Monthly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research May 2024

<ul><li>US facing headwinds with the latest Beige Book indicating a dimmer outlook, while China’s stimulus brings new hope of growth revival.</li><li>Subdued corporate tax driven by moderating commodity prices last year, would lead to tight fiscal space. SAL usage should provide support.</li><li>The Tapera Fund will affect consumption in the ST but provide a larger safety net in the LT and will supporting safer investment assets.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

US facing headwinds with the latest Beige Book indicating a dimmer outlook, while China’s stimulus brings new hope of growth revival.Subdued corporate tax driven by moderating commodity prices last year, would lead to tight fiscal space. SAL usage should provide support.The Tapera Fund will affect consumption in the ST but provide a larger safety net in the LT and will supporting safer investment assets.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: The Headwinds And Tailwinds

<ul><li>The 10-year yield of US Treasury bonds experienced a decline from 4.31% on March 15 to 4.22% on March 22, while the 2-year UST yield saw a decrease of 13 basis points to 4.59% on March 15.</li><li>This movement aligned with the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in accordance with expectations.</li><li>Concurrently, despite the decrease in US Treasury yields, the INDOGB 10-year yield remained stable at 6.65% on March 22, 2024, compared to the previous week.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The 10-year yield of US Treasury bonds experienced a decline from 4.31% on March 15 to 4.22% on March 22, while the 2-year UST yield saw a decrease of 13 basis points to 4.59% on March 15.This movement aligned with the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in accordance with expectations.Concurrently, despite the decrease in US Treasury yields, the INDOGB 10-year yield remained stable at 6.65% on March 22, 2024, compared to the previous week.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Mar 25 , 2024

<ul><li>Fiscal spending is on the move, with Jan expenditure surging 30.2% y-y despite a 7.2% decline in revenue. We anticipate further growth in Feb.</li><li>While Bank Indonesia expects rate cuts in 2H24, the PBOC made its first cut on its 5-yr Loan Prime Rate to support the ailing growth outlook.</li><li>Targeting a 23% tax ratio, the formation of a State Revenue Agency is being considered, although this would need support from parliament.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fiscal spending is on the move, with Jan expenditure surging 30.2% y-y despite a 7.2% decline in revenue. We anticipate further growth in Feb.While Bank Indonesia expects rate cuts in 2H24, the PBOC made its first cut on its 5-yr Loan Prime Rate to support the ailing growth outlook.Targeting a 23% tax ratio, the formation of a State Revenue Agency is being considered, although this would need support from parliament.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>A reduction in the Treasury issuance target in 4Q, FOMC’s rate pause, and weaker US job data are seen as the main factors behind the recent surge in asset prices, with UST yields falling to 4.57% and the DXY to 105.</li><li>Growth risk stands to dominate going forward rather than concerns on rising interest rates, and this will drive more fiscal spending, we believe.</li><li>Both INDOGB and the JCI finally saw the return of foreign inflows, with the IDR enjoying some support.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

A reduction in the Treasury issuance target in 4Q, FOMC’s rate pause, and weaker US job data are seen as the main factors behind the recent surge in asset prices, with UST yields falling to 4.57% and the DXY to 105.Growth risk stands to dominate going forward rather than concerns on rising interest rates, and this will drive more fiscal spending, we believe.Both INDOGB and the JCI finally saw the return of foreign inflows, with the IDR enjoying some support.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia 10Y (GIDR10YR INDEX)

BRIDS Monthly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research May 2024

Despite expressing uncertainty regarding the imminent return of inflation to the 2% threshold, these members maintain the view that the downward...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: The Headwinds And Tailwinds

US facing headwinds with the latest Beige Book indicating a dimmer outlook, while China’s stimulus brings new hope of growth revival.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Mar 25 , 2024

The 10-year yield of US Treasury bonds experienced a decline from 4.31% on March 15 to 4.22% on March 22, while the 2-year UST yield saw a decrease...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: A Growth Focus

Fiscal spending is on the move, with Jan expenditure surging 30.2% y-y despite a 7.2% decline in revenue. We anticipate further growth in Feb.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: Renewed Interest

A reduction in the Treasury issuance target in 4Q, FOMC’s rate pause, and weaker US job data are seen as the main factors behind the recent surge...

BRI Danareksa Research