External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

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<ul><li>Highlights: GLOBAL US inflation remained moderate in July</li><li>China’s economy is faltering: trade slumps and fears of deflation grow</li><li>The UK economy rises at an unexpectedly fast rate</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Highlights: GLOBAL US inflation remained moderate in JulyChina’s economy is faltering: trade slumps and fears of deflation growThe UK economy rises at an unexpectedly fast rateContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 15, 2023

<ul>
<li>US inflation remained moderate in July US CPI climbed 3.2% YoY in July 2023, less than consensus of 3.3% YoY.</li>
<li>Monthly inflation stood at 2% MoM, same with June increases.</li>
<li>The last reading marked the first acceleration in 13 months, followed a 3.0% in June 2023. </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


US inflation remained moderate in July US CPI climbed 3.2% YoY in July 2023, less than consensus of 3.3% YoY.
Monthly inflation stood at 2% MoM, same with June increases.
The last reading marked the first acceleration in 13 months, followed a 3.0% in June 2023. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRI Danareksa Debt Research - Weekly Report (August 15, 2023)

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Although the fiscal deficit declined to 1.6% of GDP in 2023, markets are pricing in risks arising from President-elect Prabowo's possible resort to fiscal profligacy in pursuit of 8% growth. </li>
<li>More tangibly, with exports declining 7.5%YoY and imports up 1.1%YoY in Q1CY24, the trade surplus shrank to US$7.3bn (from Q1CY23's US$12.11bn), likely widening the CAD (from Q4CY23's 0.4% of GDP).   </li>
<li>With IDR depreciating 9.3%YoY, BI hiked its policy rate by 25bp last week to pre-empt imported inflation. Another rate hike is likely before Oct'24, so we would Underweight Indonesia. </li>
</ul>


Although the fiscal deficit declined to 1.6% of GDP in 2023, markets are pricing in risks arising from President-elect Prabowo's possible resort to fiscal profligacy in pursuit of 8% growth. 
More tangibly, with exports declining 7.5%YoY and imports up 1.1%YoY in Q1CY24, the trade surplus shrank to US$7.3bn (from Q1CY23's US$12.11bn), likely widening the CAD (from Q4CY23's 0.4% of GDP).   
With IDR depreciating 9.3%YoY, BI hiked its policy rate by 25bp last week to pre-empt imported inflation. Another rate hike is likely before Oct'24, so we would Underweight Indonesia. 


Indonesia: Prabowo Risk Beginning to Hurt IDR, Requiring Tighter Money

<ul>
<li>The weaker IDR suggests greater possibility of a BI rate hike; however, we note three factors that rate hike is not the ultimate panacea.</li>
<li>The fiscal deficit would surpass 4% if the Debt-to-GDP ratio approaches 48%. More comprehensive fiscal design should result in more clarity.</li>
<li>The DXY is stronger on a weaker Yen as the BoJ delayed providing details of its QT plan. Expect cross currency event risk to prevail in the ST.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


The weaker IDR suggests greater possibility of a BI rate hike; however, we note three factors that rate hike is not the ultimate panacea.
The fiscal deficit would surpass 4% if the Debt-to-GDP ratio approaches 48%. More comprehensive fiscal design should result in more clarity.
The DXY is stronger on a weaker Yen as the BoJ delayed providing details of its QT plan. Expect cross currency event risk to prevail in the ST.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Jun 19 , 2024

<ul><li>Global rate cuts are gradually unfolding with several prominent central banks cutting rates. Bank of England is next in line.</li><li>A potential change in tone at this week’s FOMC with the latest data pointing toward further moderation in growth factors.</li><li>A weaker IDR and sluggish growth momentum continue to weigh on overall market sentiment, and this could protract market inertia.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global rate cuts are gradually unfolding with several prominent central banks cutting rates. Bank of England is next in line.A potential change in tone at this week’s FOMC with the latest data pointing toward further moderation in growth factors.A weaker IDR and sluggish growth momentum continue to weigh on overall market sentiment, and this could protract market inertia.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Jun 10 , 2024

Indonesia 10Y (GIDR10YR INDEX)

BRI Danareksa Debt Research, Weekly Report, August 15, 2023

US CPI climbed 3.2% YoY in July 2023, less than consensus of 3.3% YoY. Monthly inflation stood at 2% MoM, same with June increases.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Debt Research - Weekly Report (August 15, 2023)

US inflation remained moderate in July US CPI climbed 3.2% YoY in July 2023, less than consensus of 3.3% YoY. Monthly inflation stood at 2% MoM,...

BRI Danareksa Research

Indonesia: Prabowo Risk Beginning to Hurt IDR, Requiring Tighter Money

Despite a smaller fiscal deficit (1.6% of GDP) in 2023, markets are pricing in "Prabowo risk". The switch to a current account deficit will...

Prasenjit K. Basu

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Jun 19 , 2024

The DXY is stronger on a weaker Yen as the BoJ delayed providing details of its QT plan. Expect cross currency event risk to prevail in the ST.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Weekly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research Monday, Jun 10 , 2024

Global rate cuts are gradually unfolding with several prominent central banks cutting rates. Bank of England is next in line. A potential change...

BRI Danareksa Research