Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Indo Tambangraya Megah / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect a 10,000-12,000 Rph dividend for FY22 (div yield 28%-33%) from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)</a> as earnings are set to improve &gt;70% HoH (H1 dividend - 4128 Rph/share).</li>
<li>With coal prices remaining elevated, if volumes remain flat YoY, we could see &gt;50% of the stock price returned in dividends throughout FY22e/23e.</li>
<li>There is an excellent margin of safety, with almost 40% of the market capitalization in net cash. With a &gt;65% payout ratio, we will see cash levels build further. </li>
</ul>


We expect a 10,000-12,000 Rph dividend for FY22 (div yield 28%-33%) from Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) as earnings are set to improve &gt;70% HoH (H1 dividend - 4128 Rph/share).
With coal prices remaining elevated, if volumes remain flat YoY, we could see &gt;50% of the stock price returned in dividends throughout FY22e/23e.
There is an excellent margin of safety, with almost 40% of the market capitalization in net cash. With a &gt;65% payout ratio, we will see cash levels build further. 


ITMG - Div Yield >28%, Net Cash 40% of Mkt Cap, Deep Value with High Coal Price

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)</a> reported strong Q2 2022, with profits of 247 mn USD up 225% YoY, and coal prices averaging 202 USD/ton for the quarter (inline). </li>
<li>The only disappointment was volumes which came in at 3.9 mn tons, down 20.5% YoY. The company guided sequential improvement in coal production for Q3 2022 to 4.6 mn tons. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)</a> is 2.6x PE FY22e, with 28% of its market capitalization in cash and a dividend yield of 28% based on a 70% payout ratio.</li>
</ul>



Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) reported strong Q2 2022, with profits of 247 mn USD up 225% YoY, and coal prices averaging 202 USD/ton for the quarter (inline). 
The only disappointment was volumes which came in at 3.9 mn tons, down 20.5% YoY. The company guided sequential improvement in coal production for Q3 2022 to 4.6 mn tons. 

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) is 2.6x PE FY22e, with 28% of its market capitalization in cash and a dividend yield of 28% based on a 70% payout ratio.


ITMG - Insights from the Q2 2022 Presentation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)</a> is a 2.3 bn USD company with ~880 mn USD net cash adding &gt;100 mn USD of free cash flow a month.</li>
<li>At a 103 USD/ton ASP the company made a 475 mn USD profit for 2021. We estimate prices are easily around 200 USD/ton for the company in the current environment.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indo-tambangraya-megah-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15891:1" rel="noopener">Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)</a> has a track record of paying &gt;70% of its profits as dividends since 2009 ( implying a yield of 37% for FY22 ). </li>
</ul>



Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) is a 2.3 bn USD company with ~880 mn USD net cash adding &gt;100 mn USD of free cash flow a month.
At a 103 USD/ton ASP the company made a 475 mn USD profit for 2021. We estimate prices are easily around 200 USD/ton for the company in the current environment.

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) has a track record of paying &gt;70% of its profits as dividends since 2009 ( implying a yield of 37% for FY22 ). 


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>ITMG indicated more aggressive FY24 production and sales growth plans (+15-20% yoy), driven by the contribution from its newer mines.</li><li>We raise our FY24F net profit estimate by 31%, as we adjust our sales volume assumptions, in-line with the mgmt’s latest guidance.</li><li>Maintain Buy with a slightly higher TP of Rp28,800 on ITMG’s sustainable FCF generation and solid dividends(current yield of 23.4%).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

ITMG indicated more aggressive FY24 production and sales growth plans (+15-20% yoy), driven by the contribution from its newer mines.We raise our FY24F net profit estimate by 31%, as we adjust our sales volume assumptions, in-line with the mgmt’s latest guidance.Maintain Buy with a slightly higher TP of Rp28,800 on ITMG’s sustainable FCF generation and solid dividends(current yield of 23.4%).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>Newcastle coal prices have normalized from the highs of USD 450/ton (in September 2022) to current levels of USD 145/ton (a 68% correction from the peak). </li>
<li>From profits of 100 mn USD/month, we are now down to 90-100 mn USD/quarter. Despite this, the stock trades at 4.5x PE with a 15% dividend yield. </li>
<li>An added buffer of 850 mn USD of net cash represents 50% of the market capitalization. </li>
</ul>


Newcastle coal prices have normalized from the highs of USD 450/ton (in September 2022) to current levels of USD 145/ton (a 68% correction from the peak). 
From profits of 100 mn USD/month, we are now down to 90-100 mn USD/quarter. Despite this, the stock trades at 4.5x PE with a 15% dividend yield. 
An added buffer of 850 mn USD of net cash represents 50% of the market capitalization. 


ITMG IJ: A Healthy 15% Yield Despite the Coal Price Correction, With >50% Mkt Cap In Cash

Indonesia

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk operates as a coal exploration and mining company that provides energy and electricity support. The Company operates in Indonesia and supplies coal to the world energy market.

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Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ)

ITMG - Div Yield >28%, Net Cash 40% of Mkt Cap, Deep Value with High Coal Price

We expect a 10,000-12,000 Rph dividend for FY22 (div yield 28%-33%) from Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) as earnings are set to improve >70% HoH...

Sameer Taneja

ITMG - Insights from the Q2 2022 Presentation

Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG IJ) is an Indonesian coal producer with a 2.6x PE FY22e, with 28% of its market capitalization in cash and a dividend...

Sameer Taneja

A Layman's Thesis for ITMG

Trading at 1.9x PE FY22e with a 37% implied dividend yield on a payout ratio of 70% with 28% of its market cap in cash post outstanding dividend...

Sameer Taneja

Indo Tambangraya - FY24 Outlook

ITMG indicated more aggressive FY24 production and sales growth plans (+15-20% yoy), driven by the contribution from its newer mines.

BRI Danareksa Research

ITMG IJ: A Healthy 15% Yield Despite the Coal Price Correction, With >50% Mkt Cap In Cash

Despite the recent coal price correction, ITMG trades at 4.5x PE &15% dividend yield. The cash buffer of 850 mn USD (50% of the market cap) also...

Sameer Taneja

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