Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - November 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Asia Fixed Income Analyst

Derek Silva

Indonesia coal is hot right now. Part of the excitement lies behind the new deal signed this week by Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) with the China Coal Transport and Distribution (CCTD) association, which would see $1.5bn of thermal coal supplied to China over the next three years. Until the past week or so, there has been little to celebrate in the sector for 2020.Things are looking brighter for 2021 already. The USD bonds of Indonesian coal issuers have taken notice and responded nicely. Many have returned to a cash price back over par (100).And while the bonds from BUMA (Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama) have also finally started to react, and the shares of BUMA's parent company have reached 52-week highs, we think there is still very good upside in the bonds, indicated at a cash price of ~88.5 and offering a short-dated yield-to-maturity of ~20% (and much higher yield to call).

Indonesia coal is hot right now. Part of the excitement lies behind the new deal signed this week by Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) with the China Coal Transport and Distribution (CCTD) association, which would see $1.5bn of thermal coal supplied to China over the next three years. Until the past week or so, there has been little to celebrate in the sector for 2020.Things are looking brighter for 2021 already. The USD bonds of Indonesian coal issuers have taken notice and responded nicely. Many have returned to a cash price back over par (100).And while the bonds from BUMA (Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama) have also finally started to react, and the shares of BUMA's parent company have reached 52-week highs, we think there is still very good upside in the bonds, indicated at a cash price of ~88.5 and offering a short-dated yield-to-maturity of ~20% (and much higher yield to call).

Indonesia Coal Is on Fire; New China Deal to Help in 2021

As the search for yield intensifies, more global investors are getting involved in EM credit, especially Asia. Investors are attracted to the region’s strong Covid-19 response, resilient macro figures and the attractive yields for its corporate bonds.But while Asia high yield is hot, China is not. After recent events, China’s SOE credits are no longer regarded as safe as they used to be. Defaults are in the headlines again. And the property sector is under increasing scrutiny, especially for the credits that breach the new ‘three red lines’ set out by regulators. Not to mention the ticking time bomb that is Evergrande. While investors certainly aren’t fleeing China credits now, there is a lot more nervousness.So where do investors go to diversify in Asia high yield, when China accounts for a huge slice of the market? We think Indonesia remains in a sweet spot to take on some of the foreign inflows and reverse the poor year-to-date performance relative to the rest of the region. They already performed well in October and we’re seeing more evidence as Indonesian sovereigns continue to perform and its companies are attracting attention from global giants.<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/173/708/original/Screenshot%202020-11-24%20at%2019.29.43.png?1606221049" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="173708"></figure><div class="content-caption">source: https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/morning-views-asia-cifi-holdings</div></section>

As the search for yield intensifies, more global investors are getting involved in EM credit, especially Asia. Investors are attracted to the region’s strong Covid-19 response, resilient macro figures and the attractive yields for its corporate bonds.But while Asia high yield is hot, China is not. After recent events, China’s SOE credits are no longer regarded as safe as they used to be. Defaults are in the headlines again. And the property sector is under increasing scrutiny, especially for the credits that breach the new ‘three red lines’ set out by regulators. Not to mention the ticking time bomb that is Evergrande. While investors certainly aren’t fleeing China credits now, there is a lot more nervousness.So where do investors go to diversify in Asia high yield, when China accounts for a huge slice of the market? We think Indonesia remains in a sweet spot to take on some of the foreign inflows and reverse the poor year-to-date performance relative to the rest of the region. They already performed well in October and we’re seeing more evidence as Indonesian sovereigns continue to perform and its companies are attracting attention from global giants.source: https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/morning-views-asia-cifi-holdings

Asia High Yield Is Hot, China Is Not. Can Indonesia Stay in the Sweet Spot?

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our first report, the number of such issuers has increased notably. At the same time, with the Lucror Chinese Industrial index having run since 1 January 2018, we can now better compare the unrated issuers' performance relative to peers. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our first report, the number of such issuers has increased notably. At the same time, with the Lucror Chinese Industrial index having run since 1 January 2018, we can now better compare the unrated issuers' performance relative to peers.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Returns And Volatility For Unrated Chinese Issuers (2020) - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

Indonesia

PT Indika Energy Tbk is an energy company. The Company provides energy services, energy resources and infrastructure, primarily in the areas of coal production, engineering, procurement and construction services and power generation services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Indika Energy (INDY IJ)

Asia HY Trade Book - November 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Indonesia Coal Is on Fire; New China Deal to Help in 2021

Indonesia coal is hot right now. Higher coal prices and a new deal with China has pushed coal company bonds above par. But BUMA's bonds still have...

Derek Silva

Asia High Yield Is Hot, China Is Not. Can Indonesia Stay in the Sweet Spot?

The search for yield has investors turning to Asia high yield. But the headlines out of China are bad right now. Fortunately, Indonesia is turning...

Derek Silva

Asia HY Monthly - Returns And Volatility For Unrated Chinese Issuers (2020) - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update to our 2018 analysis of returns and volatility for unrated Chinese issuers. Since our...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - October 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of October includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)