Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

On 8 November 2016, the Indian Government shocked the economy with a radical decision to withdraw INR500 and INR1000 notes from circulation and substitute the notes with new INR500 and INR2000 notes. The move has been applauded by international observers who have for years condemned India's blind eye towards its 'black economy'. However, in India, the demonetization exercise has gained little popularity as the logistical challenges in replacing the ineffectual cash is significantly disrupting…

On 8 November 2016, the Indian Government shocked the economy with a radical decision to withdraw INR500 and INR1000 notes from circulation and substitute the notes with new INR500 and INR2000 notes. The move has been applauded by international observers who have for years condemned India's blind eye towards its 'black economy'. However, in India, the demonetization exercise has gained little popularity as the logistical challenges in replacing the ineffectual cash is significantly disrupting…

Negative Impact of India's Demonetization Not to Be Underestimated

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In a move unprecedented in its scale in independent India, the Reserve Bank of India demonetised the Rs500 and Rs1,000 rupee note on November 8, 2016. The withdrawing and replacing of 86% of the currency in circulation in a cash economy like India has led to an upheaval in markets leading to a severe shortage of cash. While supporters of the prime minister have hailed the move as a “surgical strike” against black money, there is nothing surgical or precision-guided about it and the entire…

In a move unprecedented in its scale in independent India, the Reserve Bank of India demonetised the Rs500 and Rs1,000 rupee note on November 8, 2016. The withdrawing and replacing of 86% of the currency in circulation in a cash economy like India has led to an upheaval in markets leading to a severe shortage of cash. While supporters of the prime minister have hailed the move as a “surgical strike” against black money, there is nothing surgical or precision-guided about it and the entire…

There are high hopes that Urjit Patel, the new RBI governor will attempt to revive bank lending, and thereby stimulate capital investment in the Indian economy. But that would require his having the right diagnosis in the first place. The current approach is that India suffers from a 'balance sheet' issue of over-leveraged large corporates and banks burdened with poor asset quality. Resolving these issues through stringent asset recognition norms and recovery mechanisms combined with economic reforms will put India back on the track of high investments. However, RBI's own data shifts the spotlight elsewhere but strangely nobody appears interested in exploring further as it challenges the mainstream view.

There are high hopes that Urjit Patel, the new RBI governor will attempt to revive bank lending, and thereby stimulate capital investment in the Indian economy. But that would require his having the right diagnosis in the first place. The current approach is that India suffers from a 'balance sheet' issue of over-leveraged large corporates and banks burdened with poor asset quality. Resolving these issues through stringent asset recognition norms and recovery mechanisms combined with economic reforms will put India back on the track of high investments. However, RBI's own data shifts the spotlight elsewhere but strangely nobody appears interested in exploring further as it challenges the mainstream view.

The deregulation of India’s life insurance industry in 2000 and the eventual direct listing of private life insurance companies, with ICICI Prudential Life being the first, offer opportunities for investors requiring exposure to this sector in India.  Increasing penetration, enhancing long-term savings and mobilizing much-needed investments for infrastructure were expected to be the outcomes from such a policy. The liberalization process transformed the infrastructure sector from a low risk, public sector asset to a high-risk investment and introduced high volatility in penetration as insurance companies became stock market players and exposed policy holders to the vagaries of the capital market.For those interested in conventional life insurance companies, they may have to wait indefinitely for the listing of the government-owned Life Insurance Corporation as many private sector insurance companies have adopted a mutual fund model.   In the alternative, they may consider some of the companies less exposed to the capital market  and may have to wait for the eventual listing of HDFC-Max Life, Bajaj Life and Birla Sun Life.

The deregulation of India’s life insurance industry in 2000 and the eventual direct listing of private life insurance companies, with ICICI Prudential Life being the first, offer opportunities for investors requiring exposure to this sector in India.  Increasing penetration, enhancing long-term savings and mobilizing much-needed investments for infrastructure were expected to be the outcomes from such a policy. The liberalization process transformed the infrastructure sector from a low risk, public sector asset to a high-risk investment and introduced high volatility in penetration as insurance companies became stock market players and exposed policy holders to the vagaries of the capital market.For those interested in conventional life insurance companies, they may have to wait indefinitely for the listing of the government-owned Life Insurance Corporation as many private sector insurance companies have adopted a mutual fund model.   In the alternative, they may consider some of the companies less exposed to the capital market  and may have to wait for the eventual listing of HDFC-Max Life, Bajaj Life and Birla Sun Life.

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Geopolitical tensions in the sub-continent, already running high, have taken a turn for the worst as India carried out surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. This is a first time that India has actually crossed the LoC to send a strong signal to Pakistan and this action, unfortunately, increases the risk of confrontation well into the future. Historically any tensions between India and Pakistan were defused by back channel intervention of global powers…

Geopolitical tensions in the sub-continent, already running high, have taken a turn for the worst as India carried out surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. This is a first time that India has actually crossed the LoC to send a strong signal to Pakistan and this action, unfortunately, increases the risk of confrontation well into the future. Historically any tensions between India and Pakistan were defused by back channel intervention of global powers…

Rising Geopolitical Risks in Indian Sub-Continent: Towards a Worse-Off Sub-Optimal Nash Equilibrium

India

Indian Bank is a full service bank owned by the Government of India. The Bank offers a wide range of services including a foreign currency banking unit at Colombo and specialized overseas branches at Chennai, Bangalore, and Mumbai exclusively for handling foreign exchange  transactions arising out of export, import, remittances and non resident Indian business.

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Indian Bank (INBK IN)

Negative Impact of India's Demonetization Not to Be Underestimated

On 8 November 2016, the Indian Government shocked the economy with a radical decision to withdraw INR500 and INR1000 notes from circulation and...

Manu Bhaskaran

Demonetisation: Self Inflicted

In a move unprecedented in its scale in independent India, the Reserve Bank of India demonetised the Rs500 and Rs1,000 rupee note on November 8,...

Hemindra Hazari

Bank Credit Growth: Wrong Diagnosis ?

There are high hopes that Urjit Patel, the new RBI governor will attempt to revive bank lending, and thereby stimulate capital investment in the...

Hemindra Hazari

Life Insurance: License for a Casino

The deregulation of India’s life insurance industry in 2000 and the eventual direct listing of private life insurance companies, with ICICI...

Hemindra Hazari

Rising Geopolitical Risks in Indian Sub-Continent: Towards a Worse-Off Sub-Optimal Nash Equilibrium

Geopolitical tensions in the sub-continent, already running high, have taken a turn for the worst as India carried out surgical strikes across the...

Asia Advisors

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