Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li Auto, Meituan. </li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li Auto, Meituan. 


Hong Kong Connect Flows (February): CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li Auto, Meituan

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>The monthly inflows of US$9.3bn tops the monthly inflows in the past 12 months. The inflows were led by the financials, consumer staples, and industrial sectors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Moutai, Ping An, CMB, ICBC, Wuliangye.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
The monthly inflows of US$9.3bn tops the monthly inflows in the past 12 months. The inflows were led by the financials, consumer staples, and industrial sectors.
We highlight inflows into Moutai, Ping An, CMB, ICBC, Wuliangye.


Northbound Flows (Feb): $9.3bn Inflows in Feb

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

China Construction Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.</li>
<li>CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.</li>
<li>Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.</li>
</ul>


The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.
CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.
Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.


CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 23rd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short weekly changes in HSBC, Li Auto, Lenovo.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 23rd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short weekly changes in HSBC, Li Auto, Lenovo.


HK Short Interest Weekly: HSBC, Li Auto, Lenovo

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a> are the biggest buys while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (5 HK)</a> are the biggest sells.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$16.16bn (US$2.06bn).</li>
</ul>


The March rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSIII indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%/12%. This will lead to large flows.

Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) are the biggest buys while Alibaba (9988 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK),  HSBC (5 HK) are the biggest sells.
The round-trip trade across all stocks across the four indices is estimated at HK$16.16bn (US$2.06bn).


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Mar 2024)

China

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, fund underwriting, foreign currency settlement, and other services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ICBC (H) (1398 HK)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (February): CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li Auto, Meituan

Analysis of monthly Hong Kong Connect flows reveals top stocks attracting mainland investors, including CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Feb): $9.3bn Inflows in Feb

Analysis of Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows shows record monthly inflows of US$9.3bn, led by financials, consumer staples, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

CCB will list its subsidiary China Housing Rental although this may be small relative to the bank's total loans, and any benefits can be...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Short Interest Weekly: HSBC, Li Auto, Lenovo

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 23rd and highlight short interest changes in HSBC, Li Auto, Lenovo.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Mar 2024)

Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) are the biggest buys while Alibaba (9988 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), HSBC (5 HK) are...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong Connect Flows (February): CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li Auto, Meituan

​Analysis of monthly Hong Kong Connect flows reveals top stocks attracting mainland investors, including CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Feb): $9.3bn Inflows in Feb

​Analysis of Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows shows record monthly inflows of US$9.3bn, led by financials, consumer staples, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

CCB will list its subsidiary China Housing Rental although this may be small relative to the bank's total loans, and any benefits can be...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Short Interest Weekly: HSBC, Li Auto, Lenovo

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 23rd and highlight short interest changes in HSBC, Li Auto, Lenovo.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Mar 2024)

Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) are the biggest buys while Alibaba (9988 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), HSBC (5 HK) are...

Brian Freitas

Analysis of monthly Hong Kong Connect flows reveals top stocks attracting mainland investors, including CNOOC, China Telecom, China Mobile, Li...

Analysis of Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows shows record monthly inflows of US$9.3bn, led by financials, consumer staples, and...