Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>GRAIL, a commercial-stage healthcare company and maker of MCED blood test called Galleri, reported its quarterly results for the first time as independent publicly traded company.</li>
<li>The 2Q print was solid, with +43% y/y revenue growth, ~35,200 Galleri tests sold and ~$32M total revenue all better than expected.</li>
<li>Finally, management expects moderate revenue growth rates in 2025 and subsequent years due to cost reductions and decreasing investment in other programs beyond Galleri.</li>
</ul>


GRAIL, a commercial-stage healthcare company and maker of MCED blood test called Galleri, reported its quarterly results for the first time as independent publicly traded company.
The 2Q print was solid, with +43% y/y revenue growth, ~35,200 Galleri tests sold and ~$32M total revenue all better than expected.
Finally, management expects moderate revenue growth rates in 2025 and subsequent years due to cost reductions and decreasing investment in other programs beyond Galleri.


GRAIL: Focus on MCED Tests, New Restructuring Plan and Solid 2Q Print With +43% Y/Y Revenue Growth

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In June of 2024, GRAIL, a market leader in early cancer detection, spun off from Illumina into an independent publicly traded company.</li>
<li>Following the spin-off, Illumina retains up to ~15% ownership interest in GRAIL and continues to fund GRAIL’s operations and R&amp;D with disposal funding of ~$974M.</li>
<li>I view GRAIL as a market leader in the MCED testing market and uniquely positioned to be very effective in detecting some of the most aggressive early-stage cancers.</li>
</ul>


In June of 2024, GRAIL, a market leader in early cancer detection, spun off from Illumina into an independent publicly traded company.
Following the spin-off, Illumina retains up to ~15% ownership interest in GRAIL and continues to fund GRAIL’s operations and R&amp;D with disposal funding of ~$974M.
I view GRAIL as a market leader in the MCED testing market and uniquely positioned to be very effective in detecting some of the most aggressive early-stage cancers.


GRAIL: Detecting Early-Stage Cancers With Galleri Test, A Significant Market Opportunity

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On June 24, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US) will officially join the S&amp;P 500, which follows strong financial results and guidance. Investors anticipated this inclusion, driven by improved profitability and operational efficiency.</li>
<li>The volume traded has so far been on average 2x the 3-month daily average prior to the news. The enduring effect will be on liquidity (hedging basket for index exposure).</li>
<li>CrowdStrike's inclusion in the S&amp;P 500 index increases the representation of pure cybersecurity stocks. Median IBES consensus PT is $400 (7.5% upside).</li>
</ul>


On June 24, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US) will officially join the S&amp;P 500, which follows strong financial results and guidance. Investors anticipated this inclusion, driven by improved profitability and operational efficiency.
The volume traded has so far been on average 2x the 3-month daily average prior to the news. The enduring effect will be on liquidity (hedging basket for index exposure).
CrowdStrike's inclusion in the S&amp;P 500 index increases the representation of pure cybersecurity stocks. Median IBES consensus PT is $400 (7.5% upside).


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a>, 7 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 13 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>There is huge size to trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co (KKR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crowdstrike-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28117:1" rel="noopener">Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US)</a> and both stocks were up big in the after-hours market.</li>
<li>There has been positioning in some stocks recently but stocks including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rb-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25475:1" rel="noopener">RB Global</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-pacific-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28693:1" rel="noopener">Texas Pacific Land</a> could see further positioning in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX, 7 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 13 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the June rebalance.
There is huge size to trade in KKR &amp; Co (KKR US) and Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US) and both stocks were up big in the after-hours market.
There has been positioning in some stocks recently but stocks including KKR &amp; Co, RB Global and Texas Pacific Land could see further positioning in the next week.


S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Huge Size to Trade in a Few Stocks

<ul>
<li>Tempus AI, a healthcare IT company and provider of next-gen diagnostics, is expected to IPO next week. The company plans to raise $411M at the high end of the range.</li>
<li>The most recent S-1/A puts the expected price range per share at $35 to $37, implying a market cap of ~$6B at the midpoint.</li>
<li>Tempus AI provides personalized cancer care and brings AI to healthcare at scale. They train LLMs to develop AI applications and have the largest public genomic data sets in oncology</li>
</ul>


Tempus AI, a healthcare IT company and provider of next-gen diagnostics, is expected to IPO next week. The company plans to raise $411M at the high end of the range.
The most recent S-1/A puts the expected price range per share at $35 to $37, implying a market cap of ~$6B at the midpoint.
Tempus AI provides personalized cancer care and brings AI to healthcare at scale. They train LLMs to develop AI applications and have the largest public genomic data sets in oncology


Tempus AI IPO: AI in Diagnostics at Scale, Investor Sentiment Appears Positive

United States

Illumina, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets integrated systems for the large scale analysis of genetic variation and biological function. The Company provides a comprehensive line of products and services that currently serve the sequencing, genotyping and gene expression markets for genomic research centers, pharmaceutical companies, academic institutions and biotechnology companies.

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Illumina (ILMN UW)

GRAIL: Focus on MCED Tests, New Restructuring Plan and Solid 2Q Print With +43% Y/Y Revenue Growth

GRAIL reported solid 2Q results as a public company. Revenue growth accelerated and the company ended 2Q’FY24 with ~$959M of cash and cash...

Andrei Zakharov

GRAIL: Detecting Early-Stage Cancers With Galleri Test, A Significant Market Opportunity

GRAIL, a fast-growing Galleri test maker, spun off from Illumina in June. The population-scale MCED screening test identifies 50+ types of cancer...

Andrei Zakharov

CrowdStrike Joins S&P 500

On June 24, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US) will officially join the S&P 500, which follows strong financial results and guidance. Investors...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Huge Size to Trade in a Few Stocks

KKR, Crowdstrike and GoDaddy will be added to the SP500 at the close on 21 June. There are a bunch of changes for the SP400/600 indices too. There...

Brian Freitas

Tempus AI IPO: AI in Diagnostics at Scale, Investor Sentiment Appears Positive

Healthcare IT company Tempus AI is expected to IPO next week, making it one of several high-profile AI unicorns scheduled to go public this year.

Andrei Zakharov

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GRAIL: Focus on MCED Tests, New Restructuring Plan and Solid 2Q Print With +43% Y/Y Revenue Growth

GRAIL reported solid 2Q results as a public company. Revenue growth accelerated and the company ended 2Q’FY24 with ~$959M of cash and cash...

Andrei Zakharov

GRAIL: Detecting Early-Stage Cancers With Galleri Test, A Significant Market Opportunity

GRAIL, a fast-growing Galleri test maker, spun off from Illumina in June. The population-scale MCED screening test identifies 50+ types of cancer...

Andrei Zakharov

CrowdStrike Joins S&P 500

On June 24, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US) will officially join the S&P 500, which follows strong financial results and guidance. Investors...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Huge Size to Trade in a Few Stocks

KKR, Crowdstrike and GoDaddy will be added to the SP500 at the close on 21 June. There are a bunch of changes for the SP400/600 indices too. There...

Brian Freitas

Tempus AI IPO: AI in Diagnostics at Scale, Investor Sentiment Appears Positive

​Healthcare IT company Tempus AI is expected to IPO next week, making it one of several high-profile AI unicorns scheduled to go public this year.

Andrei Zakharov

Healthcare IT company Tempus AI is expected to IPO next week, making it one of several high-profile AI unicorns scheduled to go public this year.