Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4819:1" rel="noopener">IHI Corp (7013 JP)</a> has had a monster rally over the last year with the stock price tripling over the period. That could now result in a global index inclusion.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4819:1" rel="noopener">IHI Corp (7013 JP)</a> has outperformed its peers over the last year but still trades cheaper than the average and median of its peers on quite a few valuation metrics.</li>
<li>The appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar pattern in its peers too. There could be some upside over the near term.</li>
</ul>



IHI Corp (7013 JP) has had a monster rally over the last year with the stock price tripling over the period. That could now result in a global index inclusion.

IHI Corp (7013 JP) has outperformed its peers over the last year but still trades cheaper than the average and median of its peers on quite a few valuation metrics.
The appears to be a lot of positioning in the stock, but we see a similar pattern in its peers too. There could be some upside over the near term.


IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Mixed bag for tech earnings over the Japan long w/e with Lattice, Palantir and On Semi down, Lumentum and Coreweave up.</li>
<li>SMCI cutting guidance a mere 1-week after releasing prem numbers threatens to erode confidence in management.</li>
<li>Pharma will be under pressure after the FDA's picks a perceived vaccine hawk for its Center for Biologics and Research and Trump hints at price pressures.</li>
</ul>


Mixed bag for tech earnings over the Japan long w/e with Lattice, Palantir and On Semi down, Lumentum and Coreweave up.
SMCI cutting guidance a mere 1-week after releasing prem numbers threatens to erode confidence in management.
Pharma will be under pressure after the FDA's picks a perceived vaccine hawk for its Center for Biologics and Research and Trump hints at price pressures.


Japan Morning Connection: Indian-Pakistan Tensions Adding to Geopolitical Concern

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1Q results supported management's full-year sales and profit guidance, which remains unchanged. Operating profit was up 2.7x YoY on a 17% increase in sales.</li>
<li>Total new orders received increased by only 4.2% YoY and fell short of sales, but Aerospace &amp; Defense orders were up 35.5% and slightly exceeded sales.</li>
<li>Our own forecast - above management's guidance this year with further growth next year - and our share price target are unchanged. 21% potential upside.</li>
</ul>


1Q results supported management's full-year sales and profit guidance, which remains unchanged. Operating profit was up 2.7x YoY on a 17% increase in sales.
Total new orders received increased by only 4.2% YoY and fell short of sales, but Aerospace &amp; Defense orders were up 35.5% and slightly exceeded sales.
Our own forecast - above management's guidance this year with further growth next year - and our share price target are unchanged. 21% potential upside.


IHI (7013 JP): Buy Back in for Post-Crash Recovery

<ul>
<li>Japan's rising defense budget and military collaboration with the US and Europe should support a high level of orders for the foreseeable future.</li>
<li>Defense is the growth driver, but other divisions should hold up well due to the ongoing rationalization of operations.</li>
<li>Profits should rebound this year and rise further in FY Mar-26, bringing the P/E down to 9X or less. The weak yen is a large positive. </li>
</ul>


Japan's rising defense budget and military collaboration with the US and Europe should support a high level of orders for the foreseeable future.
Defense is the growth driver, but other divisions should hold up well due to the ongoing rationalization of operations.
Profits should rebound this year and rise further in FY Mar-26, bringing the P/E down to 9X or less. The weak yen is a large positive. 


IHI (7013 JP): 30% Upside Potential as Aerospace and Defense Rebound

<ul>
<li>Intel jumping on plans to cut its bloated workforce and streamline management.</li>
<li>EV plays should pick up after Tesla held after mkt gains from yesterday.</li>
<li>Boeing numbers will help the heavies with better FCF and production outlooks.</li>
</ul>


Intel jumping on plans to cut its bloated workforce and streamline management.
EV plays should pick up after Tesla held after mkt gains from yesterday.
Boeing numbers will help the heavies with better FCF and production outlooks.


Japan Morning Connction: Tech Surging with Trump Signalling Zero China Tariffs on a Trade Deal

Japan

IHI Corporation manufactures heavy machinery. The Company produces aircraft jet engines, rocket propulsion systems, and ships for military and commercial use. Ishikawajima-Harima also constructs petroleum refineries and nuclear power plants.

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IHI Corp (7013 JP)

IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

IHI Corp's stock price has surged over the last year, and the increase in market cap should result in global index inclusion in May. Positioning is...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Indian-Pakistan Tensions Adding to Geopolitical Concern

Tech earnings in Japan were mixed over the long weekend. Pharma faces pressure from FDA pick and potential price pressures. China talk...

Andrew Jackson

IHI (7013 JP): Buy Back in for Post-Crash Recovery

IHI hit our ¥6,000 price target in July and should hit it again now that the volatile response to the BOJ rate hike is behind us. 1Q results...

Scott Foster

IHI (7013 JP): 30% Upside Potential as Aerospace and Defense Rebound

IHI is a relatively cheap defense contractor that stands to benefit from Japan's rising defense budget. Sales and profits should rebound this year...

Scott Foster

Japan Morning Connction: Tech Surging with Trump Signalling Zero China Tariffs on a Trade Deal

Intel plans to cut workforce and streamline management, EV plays may continue to rise after Tesla's gains, Boeing's improved numbers to benefit...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

IHI Corp (7013 JP): Global Index Inclusion in May

IHI Corp's stock price has surged over the last year, and the increase in market cap should result in global index inclusion in May. Positioning is...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Indian-Pakistan Tensions Adding to Geopolitical Concern

​Tech earnings in Japan were mixed over the long weekend. Pharma faces pressure from FDA pick and potential price pressures. China talk...

Andrew Jackson

IHI (7013 JP): Buy Back in for Post-Crash Recovery

IHI hit our ¥6,000 price target in July and should hit it again now that the volatile response to the BOJ rate hike is behind us. 1Q results...

Scott Foster

IHI (7013 JP): 30% Upside Potential as Aerospace and Defense Rebound

IHI is a relatively cheap defense contractor that stands to benefit from Japan's rising defense budget. Sales and profits should rebound this year...

Scott Foster

Japan Morning Connction: Tech Surging with Trump Signalling Zero China Tariffs on a Trade Deal

​Intel plans to cut workforce and streamline management, EV plays may continue to rise after Tesla's gains, Boeing's improved numbers to benefit...

Andrew Jackson

Tech earnings in Japan were mixed over the long weekend. Pharma faces pressure from FDA pick and potential price pressures. China talk...

Intel plans to cut workforce and streamline management, EV plays may continue to rise after Tesla's gains, Boeing's improved numbers to benefit...