Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets, Nomura - The Week Ahead

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Podcast Exploring Themes Driving Global Markets

Nomura - The Week Ahead

We explore the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week, discussing the key market moving events and risks to keep on your radar.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Global markets experienced a wobble following a stronger than expected US CPI inflation report, causing a spike in bond yields and a dip in equity markets.</li><li>The US CPI report breaks the trend of positive data and has implications for the Fed's rate cut decisions. While inflation is expected to moderate this year, it will take several data points to confirm this.</li><li>The upcoming minutes from the January FOMC meeting will provide more details on the Fed's thinking regarding rate cuts and adjustments to the pace of balance sheet rundown.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global markets experienced a wobble following a stronger than expected US CPI inflation report, causing a spike in bond yields and a dip in equity markets.The US CPI report breaks the trend of positive data and has implications for the Fed's rate cut decisions. While inflation is expected to moderate this year, it will take several data points to confirm this.The upcoming minutes from the January FOMC meeting will provide more details on the Fed's thinking regarding rate cuts and adjustments to the pace of balance sheet rundown.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The Week Ahead - Fed Meeting Minutes, Central Bank Meetings in Indonesia and Korea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>GDP grew 5.04% in 4Q23, slightly ahead of expectations. Modest Household consumption growth was offset by higher investment.</li><li>1Q24 GDP is likely to remain elevated at the 5% level, underpinned by higher social aid and the infusion of election-related funds.</li><li>Bank Indonesia will not rush to cut rates: IDR strengthening is key &amp; no plans to modify its current Reserve Requirement Ratio policy</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GDP grew 5.04% in 4Q23, slightly ahead of expectations. Modest Household consumption growth was offset by higher investment.1Q24 GDP is likely to remain elevated at the 5% level, underpinned by higher social aid and the infusion of election-related funds.Bank Indonesia will not rush to cut rates: IDR strengthening is key &amp; no plans to modify its current Reserve Requirement Ratio policyContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: Assessment on the Growth and Rates Outlook

<ul><li>Fiscal Front Loading will support the consumption growth outlook in 1Q24, with large spending in the final weeks of 2023 as well.</li><li>Déjà vu in respect to last year’s regional banking crisis, with commercial real estate the core problem. Spillover risk remains on the upside.</li><li>The latest Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement paves the way for a lower yields outlook with lesser Risk Premia.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Fiscal Front Loading will support the consumption growth outlook in 1Q24, with large spending in the final weeks of 2023 as well.Déjà vu in respect to last year’s regional banking crisis, with commercial real estate the core problem. Spillover risk remains on the upside.The latest Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement paves the way for a lower yields outlook with lesser Risk Premia.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The bond market exhibited relatively high volatility in January. The yield on US Treasury experienced an upward trend, climbing from 3.88% at the close of 2023 to 4.18% by January 24, 2024.</li><li>However, it subsequently settled at 3.99% following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 31, 2024.</li><li>Concurrently, the DXY index displayed a similar pattern, rising to 103.617 on January 23, 2024, from 101.333 at the end of 2023. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The bond market exhibited relatively high volatility in January. The yield on US Treasury experienced an upward trend, climbing from 3.88% at the close of 2023 to 4.18% by January 24, 2024.However, it subsequently settled at 3.99% following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 31, 2024.Concurrently, the DXY index displayed a similar pattern, rising to 103.617 on January 23, 2024, from 101.333 at the end of 2023. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BRIDS Monthly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research January 2024

<ul><li>Persistent downward adjustments to employment figures would signal an economic downturn– similar to situation in 2008.</li><li>Broader historical patterns do not conclusively show a tendency for the Fed to front-load rate changes in election years. </li><li>A surge in Fiscal Operations toward year-end has led to better system liquidity – with further support from front loading spending in 1Q24.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Persistent downward adjustments to employment figures would signal an economic downturn– similar to situation in 2008.Broader historical patterns do not conclusively show a tendency for the Fed to front-load rate changes in election years. A surge in Fiscal Operations toward year-end has led to better system liquidity – with further support from front loading spending in 1Q24.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia

The Indonesian rupiah is the official currency of the Republic of Indonesia. 

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The Week Ahead - Fed Meeting Minutes, Central Bank Meetings in Indonesia and Korea

The stronger than expected US CPI inflation report caused turbulence in global markets, leading to a spike in bond yields, a dip in equity markets,...

Nomura – The Week Ahead

Macro Strategy: Assessment on the Growth and Rates Outlook

GDP grew 5.04% in 4Q23, slightly ahead of expectations. Modest Household consumption growth was offset by higher investment.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: A Mixed Bag

Fiscal Front Loading will support the consumption growth outlook in 1Q24, with large spending in the final weeks of 2023 as well.

BRI Danareksa Research

BRIDS Monthly Update Economic & Fixed Income Research January 2024

The bond market exhibited relatively high volatility in January. The yield on US Treasury experienced an upward trend, climbing from 3.88% at the...

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy - Dissecting the Optics

A surge in Fiscal Operations toward year-end has led to better system liquidity – with further support from front loading spending in 1Q24.

BRI Danareksa Research

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