Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 4 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>From the new listings, 4 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 3 stocks to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.</li>
<li>There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in March.</li>
</ul>


We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 4 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 11 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 4 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 3 stocks to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
There are multiple stocks among the AMFI changes that will be changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) and/or Nifty Midcap 150 Index in March.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2024): Recent Large IPOs Lead to Big Downward Shift

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Credit metrics continue to improve, with NPLs down to INR404bn in 1Q25 from INR458bn YoY and from INR407bn QoQ</li>
<li>Net loan growth continues to rise by about INR1tr each quarter, with net loans at INR9,465bn in 1Q25 up from INR8,554bn YoY and INR9,318bn QoQ</li>
<li>There are pressures on costs and margins, so the story is not all perfect, with NIM pressure potentially to reverse as LDR expands</li>
</ul>


Credit metrics continue to improve, with NPLs down to INR404bn in 1Q25 from INR458bn YoY and from INR407bn QoQ
Net loan growth continues to rise by about INR1tr each quarter, with net loans at INR9,465bn in 1Q25 up from INR8,554bn YoY and INR9,318bn QoQ
There are pressures on costs and margins, so the story is not all perfect, with NIM pressure potentially to reverse as LDR expands


Canara Bank - Bad Debt Charges Down in the Quarter, Net Loan Growth Nearly INR1tr YoY in 1Q25

<ul>
<li>There is renewed interest in HDFC Bank given potential for stock index re-balancing as well as an acquisition for one of its subsidiaries </li>
<li>The story with HDFC Bank is strong regardless of these new ancillary positives, where growth is incredibly stable, and credit metrics shine</li>
<li>We remind that the amalgamation of HDFC Finance remains new, and gains are still not fully reflected, but a look at costs/assets shows progress</li>
</ul>


There is renewed interest in HDFC Bank given potential for stock index re-balancing as well as an acquisition for one of its subsidiaries 
The story with HDFC Bank is strong regardless of these new ancillary positives, where growth is incredibly stable, and credit metrics shine
We remind that the amalgamation of HDFC Finance remains new, and gains are still not fully reflected, but a look at costs/assets shows progress


HDFC Bank - Rebalancing & MUFG Acquisition Benefit, Ongoing NPL Stability & Profit Strength

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There are few banking systems in the world or in Asia-Pacific that show such a steady but significant reduction in bad loans as in India. </li>
<li>Credit costs can remain subdued for sometime with better NPL levels and this can also lead the way to better loan volume, as loan officers take on more risk.</li>
<li>Banking penetration remains incredibly low in India compared with almost all countries in the region, and this means that there can be sustained robust growth.</li>
</ul>


There are few banking systems in the world or in Asia-Pacific that show such a steady but significant reduction in bad loans as in India. 
Credit costs can remain subdued for sometime with better NPL levels and this can also lead the way to better loan volume, as loan officers take on more risk.
Banking penetration remains incredibly low in India compared with almost all countries in the region, and this means that there can be sustained robust growth.


India Banks - Far Better Credit Metrics Seem Real, With Exceptional Long-Term Loan Growth Outlook

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. </li>
<li>It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. 
It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


NSDL Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Margins Could Drag

India

IDBI Bank Limited provides a range of banking and financial services. The Bank's services include fund-based operations, such as venture capital and fee-based activities, which include merchant banking and debenture trusteeship.

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IDBI Bank Ltd (IDBI IN)

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2024): Recent Large IPOs Lead to Big Downward Shift

There could be 33 migrations in January, 4 new listings in LargeCap, 3 in MidCap and multiple in SmallCap. Some of the AMFI changes will have...

Brian Freitas

Canara Bank - Bad Debt Charges Down in the Quarter, Net Loan Growth Nearly INR1tr YoY in 1Q25

Canara Bank continues to see improvements in credit metrics. Less focus on MSMEs and more on retail can support this. LDR contract QoQ may reverse...

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC Bank - Rebalancing & MUFG Acquisition Benefit, Ongoing NPL Stability & Profit Strength

Renewed interest from a potential re-balancing, and a possible MUFG purchase for HDB. It shines on its own: stability, growth, credit metrics, with...

Daniel Tabbush

India Banks - Far Better Credit Metrics Seem Real, With Exceptional Long-Term Loan Growth Outlook

India's banks are seeing consistent and strong reduction of NPLs, which appears to be real, not cosmetic. There is vast scope for more loan...

Daniel Tabbush

NSDL Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Margins Could Drag

National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) is looking to raise around US$400m in its India IPO. In this note we talk about the not-so-positives...

Sumeet Singh

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