India Financials

Saumya Agarwal

Equity Bottom-Up

City Union Bank, the oldest Private sector Bank in India, has been focused on providing credit to the small and medium businesses in South India. Despite being a regional bank, its stock commands premium valuation vis-à-vis many other private sector banks. What is driving the superior valuation for this South- India focused Bank?

City Union Bank, the oldest Private sector Bank in India, has been focused on providing credit to the small and medium businesses in South India. Despite being a regional bank, its stock commands premium valuation vis-à-vis many other private sector banks. What is driving the superior valuation for this South- India focused Bank?

City Union Bank: What Is Driving Premium Valuation for This Oldest Private Sector Bank?

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Debt Capital Markets

State Bank Of India / Debt Capital Markets

We see fair value at T+150 for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank of India (SBIIN)</a> new 5.5-year senior unsecured US$-bond in the current market environment, despite the difficulties facing India post-COVID-19. This bond was marketed with an initial price talk of 175 basis points (bps) over similar maturity Treasuries. Our enclosed relative value assessment is based on bond spread comparisons with regional peer banks and entities tied to the Republic of India. We anticipate that market demand may drive this bond inside fair value as global monetary accommodation pushes investors down the credit curve. Although BBB- rated SBIIN operates a capital-light franchise, with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of only 10.8%, the real risk to bondholders is another rating downgrade. Negative outlooks placed on India by Moody’s and Fitch in June suggest the significant risk of a downgrade over the next 12 months. A non-investment grade rating would reduce the population of investors that are able to own this security. Given these dynamics, we believe that you buy this bond to own it and not to trade it over the long term.Concurrently, in an act of bad timing, Moody's withdrew a rating on SBIIN while the bank was marketing the new senior unsecured note. Moody’s withdrew its P-3 short-term rating on State Bank of India and its branches. The rating agency cited business reasons. This is code for the fact that SBIIN was not paying for this rating and should not be confused with anything related to the fundamental credit strength of the institution.

We see fair value at T+150 for State Bank of India (SBIIN) new 5.5-year senior unsecured US$-bond in the current market environment, despite the difficulties facing India post-COVID-19. This bond was marketed with an initial price talk of 175 basis points (bps) over similar maturity Treasuries. Our enclosed relative value assessment is based on bond spread comparisons with regional peer banks and entities tied to the Republic of India. We anticipate that market demand may drive this bond inside fair value as global monetary accommodation pushes investors down the credit curve. Although BBB- rated SBIIN operates a capital-light franchise, with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of only 10.8%, the real risk to bondholders is another rating downgrade. Negative outlooks placed on India by Moody’s and Fitch in June suggest the significant risk of a downgrade over the next 12 months. A non-investment grade rating would reduce the population of investors that are able to own this security. Given these dynamics, we believe that you buy this bond to own it and not to trade it over the long term.Concurrently, in an act of bad timing, Moody's withdrew a rating on SBIIN while the bank was marketing the new senior unsecured note. Moody’s withdrew its P-3 short-term rating on State Bank of India and its branches. The rating agency cited business reasons. This is code for the fact that SBIIN was not paying for this rating and should not be confused with anything related to the fundamental credit strength of the institution. 

State Bank of India: New 5.5-Year Senior -  Until Downgrade Do Us Part

Credit

Asia’s Subordinated debt, both Additional Tier 1 (AT1) and Tier 2 bonds outperformed higher ranked Senior Unsecured notes over the holiday shortened week. We attribute this to a shift into higher duration exposure as most of the outperformers were 2025 or longer first call bonds.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-bank-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:213:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Bank's (BBLTB)</a> 5% coupon and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia's (BNKEA)</a> 5 7/8% coupon AT1 bonds, both with 2025 first call dates, led amongst liquid securities. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indiabulls-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13086:1" rel="noopener">Indiabulls Housing Finance's (IHFLIN)</a> 6 3/8% coupon 2022 maturity bond led performance amongst less liquid notes by tightening 41bps following last week’s 56bps performance. The bond now trades within 1300bps of its benchmark but remains very illiquid. Otherwise, high grade Senior Unsecured returns were dragged lower by India-based bank issuers. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank's (ICICIBC IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank's (CBKIN)</a> debt curve sold off while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/state-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:160:1" rel="noopener">State Bank of India's (SBIIN)</a> notes saw mixed performance.Once again, thin markets were directionless over the last week, so we focus on bond performance in this note. For a deeper assessment of bank credit performance in December and an assessment of potential January outcomes, please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-credit-compass-regime-change-may-limit-the-annual-january-bounce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46712" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Compass: Regime Change May Limit the Annual January Bounce</a>. Market Outlook: The Goldilocks market may morph into a market wolf if the US Senate changes leadership from the runoff races in Georgia. Higher stimulus could be offset by concerns of higher taxes and regulations. This could negatively impact the annual January market bounce. Concurrently, reduced economic activity over the near term from increased virus-related lockdowns may not be fully reflected in asset prices. Against this background, thin markets may exacerbate price moves over the next week.

Asia’s Subordinated debt, both Additional Tier 1 (AT1) and Tier 2 bonds outperformed higher ranked Senior Unsecured notes over the holiday shortened week. We attribute this to a shift into higher duration exposure as most of the outperformers were 2025 or longer first call bonds.Bangkok Bank's (BBLTB) 5% coupon and Bank of East Asia's (BNKEA) 5 7/8% coupon AT1 bonds, both with 2025 first call dates, led amongst liquid securities. Indiabulls Housing Finance's (IHFLIN) 6 3/8% coupon 2022 maturity bond led performance amongst less liquid notes by tightening 41bps following last week’s 56bps performance. The bond now trades within 1300bps of its benchmark but remains very illiquid. Otherwise, high grade Senior Unsecured returns were dragged lower by India-based bank issuers. ICICI Bank's (ICICIBC IN) and Canara Bank's (CBKIN) debt curve sold off while State Bank of India's (SBIIN) notes saw mixed performance.Once again, thin markets were directionless over the last week, so we focus on bond performance in this note. For a deeper assessment of bank credit performance in December and an assessment of potential January outcomes, please see Bank Credit Compass: Regime Change May Limit the Annual January Bounce. Market Outlook: The Goldilocks market may morph into a market wolf if the US Senate changes leadership from the runoff races in Georgia. Higher stimulus could be offset by concerns of higher taxes and regulations. This could negatively impact the annual January market bounce. Concurrently, reduced economic activity over the near term from increased virus-related lockdowns may not be fully reflected in asset prices. Against this background, thin markets may exacerbate price moves over the next week.

Bank Credit Weekly: Duration Desires Deliver Asia's AT1 & Sub Outperformance

There is a healthy concern that the Fed is spiking this holiday season’s punch bowl while the ECB is sweetening the brew with additional TLTROs and less collateral. US federal stimulus may add the moonshine. These actions will impact Asia’s risk assets. Thin markets could see outsized moves as year-end event deadlines approach. Risk remains to the downside as positive outcomes are already priced in. Nonetheless, the Fed continues to underwrite this market although the longevity is open to debate despite recent announcements. Credit investors cannot fight the Fed, but you can fight the urge to overindulge.Two days after the Fed announcement to extend the longevity, but not alter the duration, of its bond purchases, FOMC members openly began to qualify this decision. The announcement is tantamount to spiking the punch bowl. Price discovery is already distorted in the credit markets and excessive risk taking is already encouraged. With economic recovery priced-into risk assets but mispriced in risk-free assets due to central bank policies, the ability to hedge market downturns may be impaired. This could exacerbate a market correction. This risk remains some time off, but it may approach at some point in 2021 and begin to get priced in much earlier.The failure of the Fed to alter the duration of its bond purchases should embolden the market to break the psychological 1% barrier on the 10-year Treasury bond, especially if we see a US federal stimulus package over the weekend. This would be beneficial to bank securities over the short term, especially if it occurs in tandem with continued bear steepening from the short end of the curve. Concurrently, higher rates would raise the real effective rate and could be dollar negative. Asia and EM securities could follow, then retrace positive moves.Work through the weekend to agree additional US federal stimulus may bear fruit as a compromise on ending the Fed’s emergency lending programs is reached. A limited agreement is priced-in, but downside may also be limited as the early January Senate run-off race in Georgia will become the focus irrespective of the current stimulus bill. The run-off race outcome could deliver even more stimulus shorter thereafter.In Europe, fishing rights are damming the works towards a Brexit deal. This disagreement could be bridged. Meanwhile, Christmas is effectively cancelled in London due to the virus while other US and European jurisdictions continue to see increased economic impacts. Rolling lockdowns do not improve consumer confidence and Q1 2021 economic contractions may ensue. This could impact Asia asset values.In Asia itself, China-centric risk assets continue to perform, although these still have a long way to catchup with the recent US rally. Positive sentiment that China’s economy will continue to outperform are tempered with caution regarding the potential for increased defaults. Vaccine expectations continue to power other markets in Asia in a cognitive dissonance trade which ignores vaccine distribution and time extension risks.Market Outlook: Positive stimulus or Brexit news could lead to a strong start in Asia as the week begins. However, a buy the rumor, sell the fact tactical trade could then ensue. Thin markets may exacerbate price moves over the next two to three weeks. This may confuse noise for signals. We think it better to fade a further market rally. At the same time, we would avoid extending into any year-end decline.

There is a healthy concern that the Fed is spiking this holiday season’s punch bowl while the ECB is sweetening the brew with additional TLTROs and less collateral. US federal stimulus may add the moonshine. These actions will impact Asia’s risk assets. Thin markets could see outsized moves as year-end event deadlines approach. Risk remains to the downside as positive outcomes are already priced in. Nonetheless, the Fed continues to underwrite this market although the longevity is open to debate despite recent announcements. Credit investors cannot fight the Fed, but you can fight the urge to overindulge.Two days after the Fed announcement to extend the longevity, but not alter the duration, of its bond purchases, FOMC members openly began to qualify this decision. The announcement is tantamount to spiking the punch bowl. Price discovery is already distorted in the credit markets and excessive risk taking is already encouraged. With economic recovery priced-into risk assets but mispriced in risk-free assets due to central bank policies, the ability to hedge market downturns may be impaired. This could exacerbate a market correction. This risk remains some time off, but it may approach at some point in 2021 and begin to get priced in much earlier.The failure of the Fed to alter the duration of its bond purchases should embolden the market to break the psychological 1% barrier on the 10-year Treasury bond, especially if we see a US federal stimulus package over the weekend. This would be beneficial to bank securities over the short term, especially if it occurs in tandem with continued bear steepening from the short end of the curve. Concurrently, higher rates would raise the real effective rate and could be dollar negative. Asia and EM securities could follow, then retrace positive moves.Work through the weekend to agree additional US federal stimulus may bear fruit as a compromise on ending the Fed’s emergency lending programs is reached. A limited agreement is priced-in, but downside may also be limited as the early January Senate run-off race in Georgia will become the focus irrespective of the current stimulus bill. The run-off race outcome could deliver even more stimulus shorter thereafter.In Europe, fishing rights are damming the works towards a Brexit deal. This disagreement could be bridged. Meanwhile, Christmas is effectively cancelled in London due to the virus while other US and European jurisdictions continue to see increased economic impacts. Rolling lockdowns do not improve consumer confidence and Q1 2021 economic contractions may ensue. This could impact Asia asset values.In Asia itself, China-centric risk assets continue to perform, although these still have a long way to catchup with the recent US rally. Positive sentiment that China’s economy will continue to outperform are tempered with caution regarding the potential for increased defaults. Vaccine expectations continue to power other markets in Asia in a cognitive dissonance trade which ignores vaccine distribution and time extension risks.Market Outlook: Positive stimulus or Brexit news could lead to a strong start in Asia as the week begins. However, a buy the rumor, sell the fact tactical trade could then ensue. Thin markets may exacerbate price moves over the next two to three weeks. This may confuse noise for signals. We think it better to fade a further market rally. At the same time, we would avoid extending into any year-end decline.

Bank Credit Weekly: Fed Spikes While the ECB Sweetens the Punch Bowl

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Home First Finance / Equity Capital Markets

<div>Home First Finance (HFF) is an affordable housing finance company targeting first time home buyers in low and middle-income groups. The company aims to raise around US$200m in its India IPO. It is backed by True North, GIC and Bessemer and has recently obtained an investment from Warburg Pincus as well.</div><div>HFF has grown rapidly over the past few years, driven by an expansion in its branch network and large number of new customers. Over FY17-19, HFF’s loan grew at CAGR of 70%, while its earnings grew even faster with NII growing at 76.2%, PPoP at 145% and PAT at 160% CAGR.  It still remains largely focussed on housing loans and has pristine asset quality.</div><div>
However, its funding sources lack diversity and its margin is artificially inflated by its high capitalisation. Furthermore, the company talks a lot about tech but a lot of its functions appear to be still very contact heavy and hence, salesforce/customer service dependant.
I have covered various aspects of the deal in, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/home-first-finance-pre-ipo-riding-on-affordable-housing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Home First Finance Pre-IPO - Riding on affordable housing</a>. In this note I’ll talk about the updates from the company’s re-filed DRHP.
</div>

Home First Finance (HFF) is an affordable housing finance company targeting first time home buyers in low and middle-income groups. The company aims to raise around US$200m in its India IPO. It is backed by True North, GIC and Bessemer and has recently obtained an investment from Warburg Pincus as well.HFF has grown rapidly over the past few years, driven by an expansion in its branch network and large number of new customers. Over FY17-19, HFF’s loan grew at CAGR of 70%, while its earnings grew even faster with NII growing at 76.2%, PPoP at 145% and PAT at 160% CAGR.  It still remains largely focussed on housing loans and has pristine asset quality.
However, its funding sources lack diversity and its margin is artificially inflated by its high capitalisation. Furthermore, the company talks a lot about tech but a lot of its functions appear to be still very contact heavy and hence, salesforce/customer service dependant.
I have covered various aspects of the deal in, Home First Finance Pre-IPO - Riding on affordable housing. In this note I’ll talk about the updates from the company’s re-filed DRHP.


Home First Finance Pre-IPO - Earnings Not Showing the COVID Strain but Other Metrics Are

India

ICICI Bank Limited operates as a bank. The Bank offers saving accounts, loans, debit, credit cards, insurance, investments, mortgages, and online banking services. ICICI Bank serves customers worldwide.

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ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)

City Union Bank: What Is Driving Premium Valuation for This Oldest Private Sector Bank?

City Union Bank, the oldest Private sector Bank in India has been commanding premium valuation vis-à-vis many other private sector banks. What is...

Saumya Agarwal

State Bank of India: New 5.5-Year Senior - Until Downgrade Do Us Part

We derive fair value at T+150. Market demand may drive this bond inside fair value. However, given rating directionality, we believe that you buy...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Bank Credit Weekly: Duration Desires Deliver Asia's AT1 & Sub Outperformance

Duration desires drove performance over the holiday shortened week. A US Senate leadership change could negatively impact the market as Goldilocks...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Bank Credit Weekly: Fed Spikes While the ECB Sweetens the Punch Bowl

The Fed spikes while the ECB sweetens the seasonal punch bowl. US stimulus may add the moonshine. This could be a festive week for bank securities....

Hank Calenti, CFA

Home First Finance Pre-IPO - Earnings Not Showing the COVID Strain but Other Metrics Are

Home First Finance is an affordable housing finance company targeting first time home buyers. It aims to raise US$200m in its India IPO. It is...

Sumeet Singh

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