Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Indiabulls Housing Finance / Equity Bottom-Up

*Bad News On The Doorstep: IndiaBulls Housing Finance (IHFL.IN) [IndiaBulls] reported FY 4Q21 results of INR 2.8 bn, declining INR 531 mn (16.1%) linked quarter. The linked quarter weakness can be attributed to both: a) net interest income decline of INR 804 mn (10.5%) tracking a decline in both loans of 6.8% and NIM compression of 59 bp to 2.94%; and b) loss provision increase of INR 1.7 bn (120.9%); and   *Wrong Turn: Net new NPLs had increased INR 8.0 bn for the quarter for an annualized rate of increase of 159.3% - a complete about face from FY 3Q21’s decline of 11.3%. Reserves ae now frighteningly low, and we would suggest INR 30.2 bn or 9x stated PBT.

*Bad News On The Doorstep: IndiaBulls Housing Finance (IHFL.IN) [IndiaBulls] reported FY 4Q21 results of INR 2.8 bn, declining INR 531 mn (16.1%) linked quarter. The linked quarter weakness can be attributed to both: a) net interest income decline of INR 804 mn (10.5%) tracking a decline in both loans of 6.8% and NIM compression of 59 bp to 2.94%; and b) loss provision increase of INR 1.7 bn (120.9%); and   *Wrong Turn: Net new NPLs had increased INR 8.0 bn for the quarter for an annualized rate of increase of 159.3% - a complete about face from FY 3Q21’s decline of 11.3%. Reserves ae now frighteningly low, and we would suggest INR 30.2 bn or 9x stated PBT. 

IndiaBulls Housing Finance – A Turn For The Worse

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

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The Government of India (GoI) aims to raise up to US$560m via selling a 1.9% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/axis-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:768:1" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)</a>. This won’t be the first selldown by GoI as it has been reducing its stake since 2019.
We have covered the past primary raising by the company in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/51718/Axis%20Bank%20Placement%20-%20Jumping%20the%20Queue" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Axis Bank Placement - Jumping the Queue</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/axis-bank-placement-early-look-looking-to-raise-us-2bn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Axis Bank Placement - Early Look - Looking to Raise US$2bn</a>. 
Most of the past deals in the name have done well, although the most recent one that didn’t do too well, was the earlier SUUTI linked selldown.
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The Government of India (GoI) aims to raise up to US$560m via selling a 1.9% stake in Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN). This won’t be the first selldown by GoI as it has been reducing its stake since 2019.
We have covered the past primary raising by the company in Axis Bank Placement - Jumping the Queue and Axis Bank Placement - Early Look - Looking to Raise US$2bn. 
Most of the past deals in the name have done well, although the most recent one that didn’t do too well, was the earlier SUUTI linked selldown.


Axis Bank Placement - Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Well

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo)’s board approved a fund raising of around US$400m (INR30,000m) on 10th May 2021. This is the second time over the past year that the company has obtained a board approval for undertaking a fund raising. The previous instance was in Aug 2020, when the board approved a fundraising of up to INR40,000m. However, the quicker than expected recovery since then meant that the company never raised the funds and in Jan 2021, its CFO stated that it had no intention of doing so either.However, the brutal COVID-19 second wave in India probably led to a change of heart. In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics.

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo)’s board approved a fund raising of around US$400m (INR30,000m) on 10th May 2021. This is the second time over the past year that the company has obtained a board approval for undertaking a fund raising. The previous instance was in Aug 2020, when the board approved a fundraising of up to INR40,000m. However, the quicker than expected recovery since then meant that the company never raised the funds and in Jan 2021, its CFO stated that it had no intention of doing so either.However, the brutal COVID-19 second wave in India probably led to a change of heart. In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics. 

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) QIP Early Look - Headwinds Lead to a Change of Heart

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

Executive Summary: The US Treasury bond market rally gave up the ghost at the longer-end of the curve while excess cash levels compressed rates at the short-end last week. The Treasury curve bull steepened for the first time in over three weeks.Market participants re-positioned into month-end and ahead of April data releases over the next two weeks. Expectations are for strong economic data. High readings could prove bearish for Treasury prices. However, since the markets are forward looking, the question is also why are rates not already higher?As markets focused on upside inflation risks, with commodity prices continuing to surge, both Sweden’s Riksbank and the Bank of Japan highlighted soft inflation pressures in their latest policy meetings. These statements may add to uncertainty over how sustainable the current rise in US inflation may prove to be.At the same time, the run-off of the US Treasury Department’s cash balances at the Fed continues to keep pressure on repo rates. This in turn is resulting in a melt-up with two year and under area yields being squeezed tighter as investors move up the curve for a return. For more on this melt-up approach, please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/50971/Bank%20Credit%20Strategy:%20Melt-Up%20Before%20Meltdown,%20Where%20to%20Position.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/W1NcQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank Credit Strategy: Melt-Up Before Meltdown, Where to Position</a>. In bank credit, with short-end interest rates compressing week-on-week and short-end credit tightening, positive total returns were easy to generate. Although credit spreads tightened more in the long- than short-end, Treasury curve steepening meant that positive total returns were not realized in longer dated notes. Most Asia-headquartered bank credits tightened by two- to three- basis points week-on-week. Tier 2 and HY Senior Unsecured notes tended to outperform on a spread basis. Most European-headquartered bank credits tightened by three- to four- basis points week-on-week. Lower risk Senior Bail-in bonds delivered higher average spread tighteningWith peak earnings season now behind us, the upcoming week will essentially complete Q1 reports for most major financial institutions. US banks signaled that they anticipate significantly higher interest rates by raising record breaking amounts in the debt capital markets following their Q1 earnings announcements. Other banks may follow. May is historically the start of a bullish period for Treasuries. However, as we start the month, the absence of evidence should not be taken as evidence of its absence. Various holidays around the world may reduce visibility over the next week. Markets in China, Japan and the UK are closed on Monday, with those in Tokyo and China shut through Wednesday. Look to the end of the week for more directionality. We explore these market themes within.Market Outlook: Already looking past upcoming spikes in inflation and job creation, the Treasury market is more constrained in terms of rates than was previously expected. This should be risk asset supportive. The concern is that of impotent monetary policy and a constrained fiscal response in a shorter than expected business cycle.

Executive Summary: The US Treasury bond market rally gave up the ghost at the longer-end of the curve while excess cash levels compressed rates at the short-end last week. The Treasury curve bull steepened for the first time in over three weeks.Market participants re-positioned into month-end and ahead of April data releases over the next two weeks. Expectations are for strong economic data. High readings could prove bearish for Treasury prices. However, since the markets are forward looking, the question is also why are rates not already higher?As markets focused on upside inflation risks, with commodity prices continuing to surge, both Sweden’s Riksbank and the Bank of Japan highlighted soft inflation pressures in their latest policy meetings. These statements may add to uncertainty over how sustainable the current rise in US inflation may prove to be.At the same time, the run-off of the US Treasury Department’s cash balances at the Fed continues to keep pressure on repo rates. This in turn is resulting in a melt-up with two year and under area yields being squeezed tighter as investors move up the curve for a return. For more on this melt-up approach, please see: Bank Credit Strategy: Melt-Up Before Meltdown, Where to Position. In bank credit, with short-end interest rates compressing week-on-week and short-end credit tightening, positive total returns were easy to generate. Although credit spreads tightened more in the long- than short-end, Treasury curve steepening meant that positive total returns were not realized in longer dated notes. Most Asia-headquartered bank credits tightened by two- to three- basis points week-on-week. Tier 2 and HY Senior Unsecured notes tended to outperform on a spread basis. Most European-headquartered bank credits tightened by three- to four- basis points week-on-week. Lower risk Senior Bail-in bonds delivered higher average spread tighteningWith peak earnings season now behind us, the upcoming week will essentially complete Q1 reports for most major financial institutions. US banks signaled that they anticipate significantly higher interest rates by raising record breaking amounts in the debt capital markets following their Q1 earnings announcements. Other banks may follow. May is historically the start of a bullish period for Treasuries. However, as we start the month, the absence of evidence should not be taken as evidence of its absence. Various holidays around the world may reduce visibility over the next week. Markets in China, Japan and the UK are closed on Monday, with those in Tokyo and China shut through Wednesday. Look to the end of the week for more directionality. We explore these market themes within.Market Outlook: Already looking past upcoming spikes in inflation and job creation, the Treasury market is more constrained in terms of rates than was previously expected. This should be risk asset supportive. The concern is that of impotent monetary policy and a constrained fiscal response in a shorter than expected business cycle.  

Bank Credit Weekly: Bull Steepening, but Is It Sustainable?

Specialist in Indian Banking and Economic Research

Hemindra Hazari

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The integrity of audits in private sector banks and non-bank financial companies (including housing finance) has received a major boost, while large global and domestic audit firms have been dealt a body blow by the Reserve Bank of India’s <a href="https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/notification/PDFs/NOTI258A67AD30976F44929FA2AB2B41DC805D.PDF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new</a> guidelines for the appointment of statutory auditors for the commercial banks and NBFCs. In future the executive and founder-management of private sector financial intermediaries will find it more difficult to exert influence on their statutory auditors. 
Henceforth, all the audit firm affiliates which were treated as separate entities, but under the same network, will be treated as a single entity. It was common practice for one entity in the audit firm group to be awarded the audit while other entities in the group were given lucrative assignments while simultaneously issuing a “no conflict of interest certificate.” Such an arrangement compromised the entire edifice of audit, and there were no disclosures. The new system entails providing such disclosures to the RBI prior to getting the regulator’s approval.
Till FY2019, global audit firms had a stranglehold on the market of large private sector banks. But their negligent conduct, bordering on complicity, in major corporate frauds in India and abroad has led to a valid rethink regarding their capabilities. Accordingly, the regulator’s guidelines released on April 27, 2021 will curtail their business in the Indian financial sector.

The integrity of audits in private sector banks and non-bank financial companies (including housing finance) has received a major boost, while large global and domestic audit firms have been dealt a body blow by the Reserve Bank of India’s new guidelines for the appointment of statutory auditors for the commercial banks and NBFCs. In future the executive and founder-management of private sector financial intermediaries will find it more difficult to exert influence on their statutory auditors. 
Henceforth, all the audit firm affiliates which were treated as separate entities, but under the same network, will be treated as a single entity. It was common practice for one entity in the audit firm group to be awarded the audit while other entities in the group were given lucrative assignments while simultaneously issuing a “no conflict of interest certificate.” Such an arrangement compromised the entire edifice of audit, and there were no disclosures. The new system entails providing such disclosures to the RBI prior to getting the regulator’s approval.
Till FY2019, global audit firms had a stranglehold on the market of large private sector banks. But their negligent conduct, bordering on complicity, in major corporate frauds in India and abroad has led to a valid rethink regarding their capabilities. Accordingly, the regulator’s guidelines released on April 27, 2021 will curtail their business in the Indian financial sector.

RBI Norms - Audit Giants Can’t Continue Their Cosy Arrangements with Private Banks and NBFCs

India

ICICI Bank Limited operates as a bank. The Bank offers saving accounts, loans, debit, credit cards, insurance, investments, mortgages, and online banking services. ICICI Bank serves customers worldwide.

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ICICI Bank Ltd (ICICIBC IN)

IndiaBulls Housing Finance – A Turn For The Worse

INDIABULLS HOUSING FINANCE: IndiaBulls reported a QOQ FY 4Q21 results decline of 16.1% due to a net interest income decline and loss provision...

Thomas J. Monaco

Axis Bank Placement - Well Flagged, past Deals Have Done Well

The Government of India (GoI) aims to raise up to US$560m via selling a 1.9% stake in Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN). This won’t be the first selldown by...

Sumeet Singh

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) QIP Early Look - Headwinds Lead to a Change of Heart

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo)’s board approved a fund raising of around US$400m on 10th May 2021. This is the second time over the past year that...

Sumeet Singh

Bank Credit Weekly: Bull Steepening, but Is It Sustainable?

Treasury yields bull steepened while the melt-up led credit total returns. Yield conviction may build as April economic data is published; however,...

Hank Calenti, CFA

RBI Norms - Audit Giants Can’t Continue Their Cosy Arrangements with Private Banks and NBFCs

The integrity of audits in banks & NBFCs has received a major boost, while global audit firms have been dealt a body blow by the RBI’s new...

Hemindra Hazari

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