Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a> March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.</li>
<li>Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing</a>'s PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 Index March rebalance ends in January. There could be one outright change and one or two others driven by sector balance.
Depending on the changes, passive trackers will need to buy between 8.2-20.5x ADV (8.75%-24.5% of real float) and sell between 9-38x ADV on the deletions.

Fast Retailing's PAF could see a double reduction to keep the stock weight capped at 10%. There will be huge passive selling leading to funding inflows for other index constituents.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SK Hynix strengthens partnership with TSMC to advance HBM technology and more, enhancing their collaboration in the semiconductor industry.</li><li>Meta is investing in XR ecosystem for future smart devices, as indicated by DIGITIMES Research, indicating a shift towards immersive technology in their product roadmap.</li><li>Super Micro experiences revenue shortfall due to accounting issues and GPU delays, while Intel contemplates splitting its business amidst complex challenges.</li></ul>

SK Hynix strengthens partnership with TSMC to advance HBM technology and more, enhancing their collaboration in the semiconductor industry.Meta is investing in XR ecosystem for future smart devices, as indicated by DIGITIMES Research, indicating a shift towards immersive technology in their product roadmap.Super Micro experiences revenue shortfall due to accounting issues and GPU delays, while Intel contemplates splitting its business amidst complex challenges.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Nov-2024): HBM + beyond: SK Hynix partners with TSMC

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Uncertain trading ahead of the vote tomorrow likely to be carried over to Japan.</li>
<li>Palantir big beat after hours sets a positive tone for all things AI.</li>
<li>Can Ibiden rerate as an NVDA name after being a play on INTC for so long?</li>
</ul>


Uncertain trading ahead of the vote tomorrow likely to be carried over to Japan.
Palantir big beat after hours sets a positive tone for all things AI.
Can Ibiden rerate as an NVDA name after being a play on INTC for so long?


Japan Morning Connection: Palantir Sets Positve Tone for All Things AI

<ul>
<li>Tech and Semi's month-end weakness setting a risk-off tone for Japan to start.</li>
<li>Mag7 all down, although there are a few bright spots AH with Intel and Amazon higher.</li>
<li>Watch Ibiden earnings call for clues if their NVDA business can take over from INTC as its main driver.</li>
</ul>


Tech and Semi's month-end weakness setting a risk-off tone for Japan to start.
Mag7 all down, although there are a few bright spots AH with Intel and Amazon higher.
Watch Ibiden earnings call for clues if their NVDA business can take over from INTC as its main driver.


Japan Morning Connection: Earnings Driven Weakness Overnight Points to a Soft Start

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At first glance, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> and China TCM merger arb has little or no similarities regarding the region, precondition, sector, type of offeror, or offer structure.</li>
<li>The aftermath of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event risks. This has increased the Shinko spread. </li>
<li>Shinko’s tail event risk (no SAMR approval) remains low. Timing remains the primary risk, as a delay is possible. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 8.9%/29.2%.</li>
</ul>


At first glance, the Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) and China TCM merger arb has little or no similarities regarding the region, precondition, sector, type of offeror, or offer structure.
The aftermath of China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event risks. This has increased the Shinko spread. 
Shinko’s tail event risk (no SAMR approval) remains low. Timing remains the primary risk, as a delay is possible. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 8.9%/29.2%.


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): A Casualty of the China TCM Deal Break

Japan

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Nov-2024): HBM + beyond: SK Hynix partners with TSMC

Tech companies like SK Hynix, TSMC, Meta, Intel, and Samsung are making strategic moves in the industry while facing challenges like revenue...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Japan Morning Connection: Palantir Sets Positve Tone for All Things AI

Uncertain trading ahead of US vote likely to carry over to Japan. Palantir's big beat sets positive tone for AI. Can Ibiden rerate as an NVDA name...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Earnings Driven Weakness Overnight Points to a Soft Start

Risk-off tone for Japan with tech and semi month-end weakness. Mag7 down although Intel and Amazon higher AH. Watch Ibiden if their NVDA business...

Andrew Jackson

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): A Casualty of the China TCM Deal Break

The aftermath of the China TCM deal break has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2025): Ranking, Capping, Funding & Other Changes

There should be 1 change, could be 3 due to sector balance. The impact on the potential changes varies from 8-38x ADV. Fast Retailing could see a...

Brian Freitas

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (07-Nov-2024): HBM + beyond: SK Hynix partners with TSMC

Tech companies like SK Hynix, TSMC, Meta, Intel, and Samsung are making strategic moves in the industry while facing challenges like revenue...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Japan Morning Connection: Palantir Sets Positve Tone for All Things AI

​Uncertain trading ahead of US vote likely to carry over to Japan. Palantir's big beat sets positive tone for AI. Can Ibiden rerate as an NVDA name...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Earnings Driven Weakness Overnight Points to a Soft Start

Risk-off tone for Japan with tech and semi month-end weakness. Mag7 down although Intel and Amazon higher AH. Watch Ibiden if their NVDA business...

Andrew Jackson

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): A Casualty of the China TCM Deal Break

The aftermath of the China TCM deal break has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event...

Arun George

Uncertain trading ahead of US vote likely to carry over to Japan. Palantir's big beat sets positive tone for AI. Can Ibiden rerate as an NVDA name...