Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 17 August, Celltrion Inc announced that it will merge with Celltrion Healthcare. The merger ratio is 0.449262 Celltrion Inc share for each share of Celltrion Healthcare.</li>
<li>There was a negative surprise which was that Celltrion Pharm will not be included as part of the three companies merger which has been promised in the past several years. </li>
<li>Overall, we believe that this merger will have a positive impact on Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Healthcare's share prices. </li>
</ul>


On 17 August, Celltrion Inc announced that it will merge with Celltrion Healthcare. The merger ratio is 0.449262 Celltrion Inc share for each share of Celltrion Healthcare.
There was a negative surprise which was that Celltrion Pharm will not be included as part of the three companies merger which has been promised in the past several years. 
Overall, we believe that this merger will have a positive impact on Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Healthcare's share prices. 


Merger Between Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Healthcare (Phase I First)

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.</li>
<li>
 Macro data points: China PMI data, South Korea exports, and inflation, Thailand interest rates.</li>
<li>
 Companies mentioned:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Corp (000270 KS)</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.

 Macro data points: China PMI data, South Korea exports, and inflation, Thailand interest rates.

 Companies mentioned:Hyundai Motor (005380 KS), Kia Corp (000270 KS)



GEMWeekly (4 Aug 2023): China, South Korea, Thailand Macro Data; Hyundai Motors, Kia Corp

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 3Q 2023.</li>
<li>Of the 38 pair trades, 22 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 16 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.</li>
<li>We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 3Q 2023.
Of the 38 pair trades, 22 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos YTD and 16 of them involved opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.
We highlight 38 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2023

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. </li>
<li>While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.</li>
<li>Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) continue to hold above $93 on ACWI-US, a level that, since January, we had anticipated would cap upside in 2023. 
While ACWI-US remains below $96-$97 (a target we discussed was possible in our April 18, 2023 Int’l Macro Vision), we could easily see $93 act as support moving forward.
Therefore, we are bullish on global equities as long as ACWI-US is above $93, targeting $110.29. This is the measured move price target following the inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.


MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +6.3%y/y for 1Q23-to-date, slightly down from the +7.5% reported for 4Q22.</li>
<li>Only 51% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, whilst 60% delivered positive EPS surprises, an increase from the trend seen over the past year.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +6.3%y/y for 1Q23-to-date, slightly down from the +7.5% reported for 4Q22.
Only 51% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, whilst 60% delivered positive EPS surprises, an increase from the trend seen over the past year.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2023

South Korea

Hyundai Motor Company manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, trucks, and commercial vehicles. The Company also sells various auto parts and operates auto repair service centers throughout South Korea. Hyundai Motor provides financial services through its subsidiaries.

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Hyundai Motor (005380 KS)

Merger Between Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Healthcare (Phase I First)

The merger of Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Healthcare will have a positive impact on Celltrion Inc and Celltrion Healthcare's shares as it will...

Douglas Kim

GEMWeekly (4 Aug 2023): China, South Korea, Thailand Macro Data; Hyundai Motors, Kia Corp

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of...

Wium Malan, CFA

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 3Q 2023

In this insight, we highlight the pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos in 3Q 2023. We highlight 38 pair trades that...

Douglas Kim

MSCI ACWI-US Bullish Above $93; EURO STOXX 50 Holding At Uptrend; Buys in Discretionary, Tech, Svcs.

MSCI $ACWI Bullish Above $93, inverse head-and-shoulders breakout targets $110; EURO $STOXX 50 Holding At the Uptrend; Buys in Consumer...

Vermilion Research

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2023

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

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52-week Range

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