Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Declines in carrier revenues and pricing continued to moderate in April</li>
<li>Inbound to N. America container volume declines also eased in April</li>
<li>Lower fuel prices a tailwind in '23, shares cheap, we retain our +ive sector view </li>
</ul>


Declines in carrier revenues and pricing continued to moderate in April
Inbound to N. America container volume declines also eased in April
Lower fuel prices a tailwind in '23, shares cheap, we retain our +ive sector view 


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price, Volume Declines Moderate | Fuel=Tailwind (May 2023)

<ul>
<li>In container shipping, 'normalization' means lower rates, lower margins, &amp; lower returns</li>
<li>In Chinese express, a potential recovery in ground segment, more risks in X-border business</li>
<li>In Chinese tourism, how will investors react to inevitable slowing</li>
</ul>


In container shipping, 'normalization' means lower rates, lower margins, &amp; lower returns
In Chinese express, a potential recovery in ground segment, more risks in X-border business
In Chinese tourism, how will investors react to inevitable slowing


Crystal Baller: Tracking Traffic's Key 2025 Themes & Events: Containers | Express | Chinese Tourism

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>November's pricing weakness vs Summer peak is among the sharpest declines in 10+ years</li>
<li>A work stoppage at some US ports could hit in January, but impact likely muted</li>
<li>Share prices under pressure as investors begin pricing in softer conditions in 2025</li>
</ul>


November's pricing weakness vs Summer peak is among the sharpest declines in 10+ years
A work stoppage at some US ports could hit in January, but impact likely muted
Share prices under pressure as investors begin pricing in softer conditions in 2025


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: November Pricing Weaker | January ILA Strike? (December 2024)

<ul>
<li>Price momentum softened dramatically in October, mirroring steep declines in H221, FY22</li>
<li>We believe price momentum, rather than earnings, drives medium-term share performance</li>
<li>Reaction to ZIM's stellar Q324 results &amp; guidance raise suggests more downside ahead</li>
</ul>


Price momentum softened dramatically in October, mirroring steep declines in H221, FY22
We believe price momentum, rather than earnings, drives medium-term share performance
Reaction to ZIM's stellar Q324 results &amp; guidance raise suggests more downside ahead


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Price Momentum Softens | CMP-ZIM L/S Pair Idea (November 2024)

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Regional container carrier TS Lines debuted in HK at HK$4.18 on November 1 </li>
<li>Post-IPO, shares appear cheap, trading at 65% of fleet replacement + net cash</li>
<li>We provide updates on early trading, Q324 earnings from peers, &amp; more</li>
</ul>


Regional container carrier TS Lines debuted in HK at HK$4.18 on November 1 
Post-IPO, shares appear cheap, trading at 65% of fleet replacement + net cash
We provide updates on early trading, Q324 earnings from peers, &amp; more


TS Lines HKEX IPO: Early Trading | Valuation Vs Wan Hai & RCL | Return to TransPac May Not Work Out

South Korea

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

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HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price, Volume Declines Moderate | Fuel=Tailwind (May 2023)

April numbers show Y/Y declines in revenue and throughput are moderating. In addition, lower fuel prices could provide a tailwind in the remainder...

Tracking Traffic

Crystal Baller: Tracking Traffic's Key 2025 Themes & Events: Containers | Express | Chinese Tourism

In this insight we outline the important 2025 themes & events facing the three sectors we cover in our monthly Tracking Traffic series: Container...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: November Pricing Weaker | January ILA Strike? (December 2024)

Container rates continued to soften in November, and 2024's Q4 seasonal decline from the Summer peak has been the second-steepest in the past 12...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Price Momentum Softens | CMP-ZIM L/S Pair Idea (November 2024)

Container price momentum faltered again in October, and we believe spot rates will continue to moderate near-term. Negative reaction to ZIM's...

Tracking Traffic

TS Lines HKEX IPO: Early Trading | Valuation Vs Wan Hai & RCL | Return to TransPac May Not Work Out

In this insight we offer some quick updates on regional container carrier TS Lines, which successfully listed its shares in Hong Kong on November 1.

Tracking Traffic

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