Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Price momentum stagnant, but could North American volume surge be an inflection point?</li>
<li>Fuel price hasn't risen since outbreak of violence in mideast, but no longer a tailwind, either</li>
<li>Look to Maersk results on November 3 for guidance, US inventory de-stocking commentary</li>
</ul>


Price momentum stagnant, but could North American volume surge be an inflection point?
Fuel price hasn't risen since outbreak of violence in mideast, but no longer a tailwind, either
Look to Maersk results on November 3 for guidance, US inventory de-stocking commentary


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rebound in NAM Volume Could Be Inflection Point (October 2023)

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 17 October, Pan Ocean (028670 KS) announced that it will sell its 3.9 million shares (5.85% stake) in Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS) for about 163 billion won. </li>
<li>The main purpose of this stake sale is to secure more funds for Pan Ocean to potentially acquire HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS). </li>
<li>As evidenced by the recent increase in Baltic Dry Index, the potential expansion of the war in Israel could benefit major bulk shipping companies such as Pan Ocean.</li>
</ul>


On 17 October, Pan Ocean (028670 KS) announced that it will sell its 3.9 million shares (5.85% stake) in Hanjin KAL Corp (180640 KS) for about 163 billion won. 
The main purpose of this stake sale is to secure more funds for Pan Ocean to potentially acquire HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS). 
As evidenced by the recent increase in Baltic Dry Index, the potential expansion of the war in Israel could benefit major bulk shipping companies such as Pan Ocean.


Pan Ocean To Sell 5.8% Stake in Hanjin Kal To Secure Funds to Acquire HMM

<ul>
<li>Our index suggests pricing momentum remains depressed, but stable in Q3; fuel prices have begun to rise from Q2 lows, but probably don't offer much lift to earnings now</li>
<li>We looked at intra-Asian carrier TS Lines (which applied to list its shares in Hong Kong in April) and provided a quick update on market conditions in the Intra-Asian trade</li>
<li>Shares of a few container shipping companies -- including Evergreen Marine of Taiwan -- have performed well YTD in 2023; we remain positive on the sector's medium-term outlook</li>
</ul>


Our index suggests pricing momentum remains depressed, but stable in Q3; fuel prices have begun to rise from Q2 lows, but probably don't offer much lift to earnings now
We looked at intra-Asian carrier TS Lines (which applied to list its shares in Hong Kong in April) and provided a quick update on market conditions in the Intra-Asian trade
Shares of a few container shipping companies -- including Evergreen Marine of Taiwan -- have performed well YTD in 2023; we remain positive on the sector's medium-term outlook


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)

<ul>
<li>After the market close on 21 August, it was reported that Harim Group, Dongwon Group, LX Group, and Hapag-Lloyd have been short-listed as preliminary bidders for HMM.</li>
<li>KDB and KOBC are selling 38.9% stake in HMM on a fully diluted basis. The local media have mentioned that the potential sales price could be about 5-6 trillion won.</li>
<li>We continue to have a Negative view of HMM. e expect additional 20-30%+ downside risk over the next 6-12 months.</li>
</ul>


After the market close on 21 August, it was reported that Harim Group, Dongwon Group, LX Group, and Hapag-Lloyd have been short-listed as preliminary bidders for HMM.
KDB and KOBC are selling 38.9% stake in HMM on a fully diluted basis. The local media have mentioned that the potential sales price could be about 5-6 trillion won.
We continue to have a Negative view of HMM. e expect additional 20-30%+ downside risk over the next 6-12 months.


Privatization of HMM: Hapag-Lloyd, Harim, Dongwon, and LX Groups [Short-Listed Bidding Candidates]

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our monthly index suggests that container rates have bottomed, with easier comps in H2</li>
<li>Lower fuel has been a tailwind for carriers for several months, but that could change</li>
<li>We still think the worst has passed for carriers, a few of which have performed well in '23</li>
</ul>


Our monthly index suggests that container rates have bottomed, with easier comps in H2
Lower fuel has been a tailwind for carriers for several months, but that could change
We still think the worst has passed for carriers, a few of which have performed well in '23


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Bottoming | Fuel Tailwind Easing? | (August 2023)

South Korea

HMM Co., Ltd. provides marine transportation services.  The Company commands different types of vessels including full container vessels, oil tankers, car carriers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers, and tramps.

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HMM Co., Ltd. (011200 KS)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rebound in NAM Volume Could Be Inflection Point (October 2023)

Pricing still appears stagnant, but a sharp rebound in container volumes moving into the ports along North America's Pacific coast in September...

Tracking Traffic

Pan Ocean To Sell 5.8% Stake in Hanjin Kal To Secure Funds to Acquire HMM

Pan Ocean plans to sell stake in Hanjin KAL to raise funds for potential acquisition of HMM Co. The outbreak of a war in Israel has resulted in...

Douglas Kim

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)

According to our index, container shipping price momentum remains depressed, but stable. On the other hand, fuel prices -- a boon to earnings for...

Tracking Traffic

Privatization of HMM: Hapag-Lloyd, Harim, Dongwon, and LX Groups [Short-Listed Bidding Candidates]

Kim Jae-cheol, the honorary chairman of Dongwon Group, expressed his determination to acquire HMM today, saying, “I think the acquisition of HMM is...

Douglas Kim

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Bottoming | Fuel Tailwind Easing? | (August 2023)

Our analysis shows pricing momentum for carriers remains depressed, but stable. In other words, conditions are not deteriorating. But fuel prices...

Tracking Traffic

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Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rebound in NAM Volume Could Be Inflection Point (October 2023)

Pricing still appears stagnant, but a sharp rebound in container volumes moving into the ports along North America's Pacific coast in September...

Tracking Traffic

Pan Ocean To Sell 5.8% Stake in Hanjin Kal To Secure Funds to Acquire HMM

​Pan Ocean plans to sell stake in Hanjin KAL to raise funds for potential acquisition of HMM Co. The outbreak of a war in Israel has resulted in...

Douglas Kim

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Stable | Fuel (Barely) Lower Y/Y | (September 2023)

According to our index, container shipping price momentum remains depressed, but stable. On the other hand, fuel prices -- a boon to earnings for...

Tracking Traffic

Privatization of HMM: Hapag-Lloyd, Harim, Dongwon, and LX Groups [Short-Listed Bidding Candidates]

Kim Jae-cheol, the honorary chairman of Dongwon Group, expressed his determination to acquire HMM today, saying, “I think the acquisition of HMM is...

Douglas Kim

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Bottoming | Fuel Tailwind Easing? | (August 2023)

Our analysis shows pricing momentum for carriers remains depressed, but stable. In other words, conditions are not deteriorating. But fuel prices...

Tracking Traffic

Pan Ocean plans to sell stake in Hanjin KAL to raise funds for potential acquisition of HMM Co. The outbreak of a war in Israel has resulted in...