Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

Short selling has finally resumed in Korea and it has been a busy couple of days on that front with foreign investors piling into stocks that have run up more than their peers over the last year and are potentially overvalued.Long/short pairs could be implemented in Korea during the short sell ban if you had long inventory or if there were listed single stock futures on the short leg.With short selling permitted on constituents of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a>, we take a look at long/short pairs where both stocks are members of the index. These pairs belong to the same GICS sub-industry, are correlated and exhibit mean-reversion. We also use short sale data from the last couple of trading sessions to see which stocks are being targeted by short sellers.

Short selling has finally resumed in Korea and it has been a busy couple of days on that front with foreign investors piling into stocks that have run up more than their peers over the last year and are potentially overvalued.Long/short pairs could be implemented in Korea during the short sell ban if you had long inventory or if there were listed single stock futures on the short leg.With short selling permitted on constituents of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX), we take a look at long/short pairs where both stocks are members of the index. These pairs belong to the same GICS sub-industry, are correlated and exhibit mean-reversion. We also use short sale data from the last couple of trading sessions to see which stocks are being targeted by short sellers.

Korea Pair Trades: High Risk/Reward Names with Short Sell Screen

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Hyundai Engineering   / Equity Capital Markets

<div class="content-highlight">
<a href="https://m.stock.naver.com/index.html#/news/ranknews/view/011/0003896445" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hyundai Engineering Co</a> is starting its IPO process, which was noted by several local Korean media accounts today. The local media also has mentioned that the value of Hyundai Engineering Co (HEC) could be about 10 trillion won ($8.9 billion).
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-engineering-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33008:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Engineering Co Ltd (HEC KS)</a> is expected to complete its IPO by the end of 2021. It was reported on 13 April by the local media that Hyundai Engineering Co sent request for proposals (RFP) for IPO to the major domestic investment banks (including Mirae Asset Securities, Korea Investment &amp; Securities, NH Investment &amp; Securities, and other foreign banks) on 9 April. 
A successful IPO of Hyundai Engineering Co could accelerate the restructuring of the entire Hyundai Motor Group. For example, given that the Hyundai Motor Group Chairman Chung Eui-Sun is the second largest shareholder of Hyundai Engineering Co, the IPO proceeds from this company could be used to further increase the ownership of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-mobis-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6089:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS)</a> in the future.
Note: Hyundai Engineering Co (HEC) is a different company than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-engineering-const" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4292:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Engineering &amp; Const (000720 KS) (Hyundai E&amp;C)</a>. In this insight, the former company is mentioned as either HEC or Hyundai Engineering Co. 
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Hyundai Engineering Co is starting its IPO process, which was noted by several local Korean media accounts today. The local media also has mentioned that the value of Hyundai Engineering Co (HEC) could be about 10 trillion won ($8.9 billion).
Hyundai Engineering Co Ltd (HEC KS) is expected to complete its IPO by the end of 2021. It was reported on 13 April by the local media that Hyundai Engineering Co sent request for proposals (RFP) for IPO to the major domestic investment banks (including Mirae Asset Securities, Korea Investment &amp; Securities, NH Investment &amp; Securities, and other foreign banks) on 9 April. 
A successful IPO of Hyundai Engineering Co could accelerate the restructuring of the entire Hyundai Motor Group. For example, given that the Hyundai Motor Group Chairman Chung Eui-Sun is the second largest shareholder of Hyundai Engineering Co, the IPO proceeds from this company could be used to further increase the ownership of Hyundai Mobis (012330 KS) in the future.
Note: Hyundai Engineering Co (HEC) is a different company than Hyundai Engineering &amp; Const (000720 KS) (Hyundai E&amp;C). In this insight, the former company is mentioned as either HEC or Hyundai Engineering Co. 


Hyundai Engineering IPO Process Begins - A Key Catalyst for the Hyundai Motor Group Restructuring?

Event-Driven

Daelim Industrial's BOD and shareholders agreed to spin-off the company into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dl-e-c-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31375:1" rel="noopener">DL E&amp;C Co Ltd (375500 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daelim-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18095:1" rel="noopener">DL Co Ltd (000210 KS)</a> in December 2020. DL E&amp;C and DL Corp shares started trading again on 25 January 2021. DL E&amp;C and DL Corp's market caps are 2.45 trillion won and 1.08 trillion won, respectively as of 26 January 2021. The combined market caps of the two companies are 3.53 trillion won, up more than 20% from the pre-spin off levels. DL E&amp;C makes some of the best apartments in Korea and this is their bread and butter business. <div>Hyundai E&amp;C, GS E&amp;C, HDC Hyundai Development, and Daewoo E&amp;C are the most appropriate comps to DL E&amp;C. These four comps are currently trading at P/E (2021E) ratios 11.8x, 6.1x, 5.6x, and 6.9x, respectively, using the consensus earnings estimates. The average P/E ratio of these four companies is 7.6x. If we apply 7.6x P/E on the estimated net profit of 660 billion won, this would suggest an implied market cap of 5.0 trillion won, which would be nearly 100% upside from the current market cap of 2.4 trillion won. If we use the lowest P/E multiple of the comps (5.6x) and apply to the estimated net profit of 660 billion won, this would suggest a market cap of 3.7 trillion won, which would be 51% higher than its current market cap. </div>

Daelim Industrial's BOD and shareholders agreed to spin-off the company into DL E&amp;C Co Ltd (375500 KS) and DL Co Ltd (000210 KS) in December 2020. DL E&amp;C and DL Corp shares started trading again on 25 January 2021. DL E&amp;C and DL Corp's market caps are 2.45 trillion won and 1.08 trillion won, respectively as of 26 January 2021. The combined market caps of the two companies are 3.53 trillion won, up more than 20% from the pre-spin off levels. DL E&amp;C makes some of the best apartments in Korea and this is their bread and butter business. Hyundai E&amp;C, GS E&amp;C, HDC Hyundai Development, and Daewoo E&amp;C are the most appropriate comps to DL E&amp;C. These four comps are currently trading at P/E (2021E) ratios 11.8x, 6.1x, 5.6x, and 6.9x, respectively, using the consensus earnings estimates. The average P/E ratio of these four companies is 7.6x. If we apply 7.6x P/E on the estimated net profit of 660 billion won, this would suggest an implied market cap of 5.0 trillion won, which would be nearly 100% upside from the current market cap of 2.4 trillion won. If we use the lowest P/E multiple of the comps (5.6x) and apply to the estimated net profit of 660 billion won, this would suggest a market cap of 3.7 trillion won, which would be 51% higher than its current market cap. 

Newly Spun-Off DL E&C and DL Corp Create Higher Value

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daelim-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18095:1" rel="noopener">Daelim Industrial (000210 KS)</a> first announced its decision to form a holding company structure on 10 September 2020. Since then, Daelim Industrial's share price is down 9.2% in this period, underperforming KOSPI which is up 9.2% in the same period. On 4 December, Daelim Industrial's shareholders vote on this deal. We think the shareholders will confirm this formation of Holdco/spin-off. Over the years of following the Korean stock market, we have found that the shareholders sometimes do not like the initial spin-off story which knocks the price downwards but later on the share price makes a positive turnaround. In our view, Daelim Industrial could be one of these spin-off related turnaround plays that could outperform the market over the next 6 to 12 months.  Daelim Industrial is one of the largest construction companies in Korea. It makes some of the finest apartments in Korea. The housing business (mostly apartments construction) accounted for 54% of total sales and 78% of the total operating profit of the company in 1Q-3Q 2020. The company has one of the most profitable and best E&amp;C business (especially housing/apartments construction) in Korea.What are the appropriate comps for DL E&amp;C? Hyundai E&amp;C, GS E&amp;C, and Daewoo E&amp;C are the most appropriate comps to DL E&amp;C. These three comps are currently trading at P/E ratios of 11.5x, 6.7x, and 7.6x, respectively. The average of these three multiples would be 8.6x. If we take a more conservative view and take just the lowest P/E of the comps (6.7x) and use this multiple to apply to the estimated annual net profit of 660 billion for the E&amp;C business, it would result in an implied market cap of 4.4 trillion won, which would exceed Daelim Industrial's current market cap of 2.9 trillion won. So essentially, you would be getting the other businesses for free.

Daelim Industrial (000210 KS) first announced its decision to form a holding company structure on 10 September 2020. Since then, Daelim Industrial's share price is down 9.2% in this period, underperforming KOSPI which is up 9.2% in the same period. On 4 December, Daelim Industrial's shareholders vote on this deal. We think the shareholders will confirm this formation of Holdco/spin-off. Over the years of following the Korean stock market, we have found that the shareholders sometimes do not like the initial spin-off story which knocks the price downwards but later on the share price makes a positive turnaround. In our view, Daelim Industrial could be one of these spin-off related turnaround plays that could outperform the market over the next 6 to 12 months.  Daelim Industrial is one of the largest construction companies in Korea. It makes some of the finest apartments in Korea. The housing business (mostly apartments construction) accounted for 54% of total sales and 78% of the total operating profit of the company in 1Q-3Q 2020. The company has one of the most profitable and best E&amp;C business (especially housing/apartments construction) in Korea.What are the appropriate comps for DL E&amp;C? Hyundai E&amp;C, GS E&amp;C, and Daewoo E&amp;C are the most appropriate comps to DL E&amp;C. These three comps are currently trading at P/E ratios of 11.5x, 6.7x, and 7.6x, respectively. The average of these three multiples would be 8.6x. If we take a more conservative view and take just the lowest P/E of the comps (6.7x) and use this multiple to apply to the estimated annual net profit of 660 billion for the E&amp;C business, it would result in an implied market cap of 4.4 trillion won, which would exceed Daelim Industrial's current market cap of 2.9 trillion won. So essentially, you would be getting the other businesses for free.

Daelim Industrial: Unlocking Higher Value Through A Holdco & Spin-Off (Voting on 4 December)

Cross Asset Strategy

This morning on May 2nd, it was widely reported in the media that dictator <a href="https://news.joins.com/article/23767647" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kim Jong-Un</a> showed up at a fertilizer factory in North Korea on May 1st. This was the first time in 20 days that he has shown up publicly. There has been a huge amount of global media attention on his health conditions, especially after he failed to show up at Kim Il-Sung's birthday ceremony on April 15th. So far, the North Korean government has not stated why Kim Jong-Un disappeared for nearly three weeks. <div class="content-highlight">What we still do not know: Despite this announcement, the North Korean government has yet to provide actual videos of Kim Jong-Un walking around alive. Although the photos provide some confirmation that Kim Jong-Un is alive until there are actual videos of him walking on his own, theexact health conditions of Kim Jong-Un remain unclear. </div>

This morning on May 2nd, it was widely reported in the media that dictator Kim Jong-Un showed up at a fertilizer factory in North Korea on May 1st. This was the first time in 20 days that he has shown up publicly. There has been a huge amount of global media attention on his health conditions, especially after he failed to show up at Kim Il-Sung's birthday ceremony on April 15th. So far, the North Korean government has not stated why Kim Jong-Un disappeared for nearly three weeks. What we still do not know: Despite this announcement, the North Korean government has yet to provide actual videos of Kim Jong-Un walking around alive. Although the photos provide some confirmation that Kim Jong-Un is alive until there are actual videos of him walking on his own, theexact health conditions of Kim Jong-Un remain unclear. 

Kim Jong Un Shows Up At a Fertilizer Factory - Now You See Me?

South Korea

Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co., Ltd., a general construction company, provides civil engineering, architectural, industrial, and electrical engineering services.  The Company constructs roadways, dams, bridges, ports, industrial plants, apartment complexes, and cultural facilities.

Hyundai Engineering & Construction (000720 KS)

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Hyundai Engineering & Construction (000720 KS)

Korea Pair Trades: High Risk/Reward Names with Short Sell Screen

With the resumption of short selling in Korea, we highlight correlated pairs from the same GICS sub-industry that are near reversion points and...

Brian Freitas

Hyundai Engineering IPO Process Begins - A Key Catalyst for the Hyundai Motor Group Restructuring?

Hyundai Engineering Co (HEC) has started its IPO process and the IPO is expected to be completed by end of this year. The IPO of HEC could...

Douglas Kim

Newly Spun-Off DL E&C and DL Corp Create Higher Value

The newly spun off DL E&C and DL Corp have created higher value for the shareholders in the past month.Their combined market caps are 3.5 trillion...

Douglas Kim

Daelim Industrial: Unlocking Higher Value Through A Holdco & Spin-Off (Voting on 4 December)

Daelim Industrial is one of the cheapest stocks in Korea. The company could unlock greater shareholder value through the spin-off of the...

Douglas Kim

Kim Jong Un Shows Up At a Fertilizer Factory - Now You See Me?

This morning on May 2nd, it was widely reported in the media that dictator Kim Jong-Un showed up at a fertilizer factory in North Korea on May 1st....

Douglas Kim

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