Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

There are vast differences in provisioning done for US banks during 1Q20. There are some banks that indicate a similar high level of provisions during 2Q20. Where this likely marks the worst in terms of unemployment, economic distress, and the reopening of economies, we wonder if credit costs can come way in during 2H20? Where the current crisis is self-inflicted from flipping a switch, wholly unlike drivers of the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis, the profile of provisioning can be vastly different. This is further the case against a backdrop strong recovery metrics, unprecedented fiscal stimulus and historically low rates.

There are vast differences in provisioning done for US banks during 1Q20. There are some banks that indicate a similar high level of provisions during 2Q20. Where this likely marks the worst in terms of unemployment, economic distress, and the reopening of economies, we wonder if credit costs can come way in during 2H20? Where the current crisis is self-inflicted from flipping a switch, wholly unlike drivers of the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis, the profile of provisioning can be vastly different. This is further the case against a backdrop strong recovery metrics, unprecedented fiscal stimulus and historically low rates.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Bank stocks are breaking out this week from base patterns, and are among one of the timeliest Groups in which to add exposure. The size of these patterns—about 9 months in duration, and visible in the KBE and KRE ETFs —support further upside. Increase exposure.  In this report we highlight actionable bank charts. (This is not an all-encompassing list.)

Bank stocks are breaking out this week from base patterns, and are among one of the timeliest Groups in which to add exposure. The size of these patterns—about 9 months in duration, and visible in the KBE and KRE ETFs —support further upside. Increase exposure.  In this report we highlight actionable bank charts. (This is not an all-encompassing list.)

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

<ul><li>The presidential election has opened the possibility of significant changes to the Dodd-Frank Act regime that has been implemented over the last six years.</li><li>It remains to be seen what plans the incoming administration will bring to this area.</li><li>However, new regulatory proposals and other developments continue to present a complicated regulatory climate for banks and other large financial institutions.</li></ul>

The presidential election has opened the possibility of significant changes to the Dodd-Frank Act regime that has been implemented over the last six years.It remains to be seen what plans the incoming administration will bring to this area.However, new regulatory proposals and other developments continue to present a complicated regulatory climate for banks and other large financial institutions.

The New Future of US Banking and Financial Services Regulation

Campaign promises rarely turn into specific actions, but when they do, they are necessarily impacted by the dynamics of the legislative process. History suggests, however, that the policies of candidates can be a predictor of likely regulatory trends.

Campaign promises rarely turn into specific actions, but when they do, they are necessarily impacted by the dynamics of the legislative process. History suggests, however, that the policies of candidates can be a predictor of likely regulatory trends.

Implications of the 2016 Election for Banks and Systemically Important Financial Institutions

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Vornado Realty Trust / Technical Analysis

Chartonics  Friday 2 September 2016To view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/PLkxgq2WFM" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/PLkxgq2WFM</a> 5:15 min.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/012/644/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1472799884" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="12644"></figure><div class="content-caption">NFP trade webcast</div>NFP positioningWe used mild strength this week to reduce a margin of long exposure while focusing more on pair trades during increased volatility in September. We recently adjusted positioning as noted in Monday's report and sold our Thailand long (break of pivot support) for a gain of 8%, Thai bank long exited at flat. Took off our DJI long for a meager 100 point gain…

Chartonics  Friday 2 September 2016To view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/PLkxgq2WFM 5:15 min.NFP trade webcastNFP positioningWe used mild strength this week to reduce a margin of long exposure while focusing more on pair trades during increased volatility in September. We recently adjusted positioning as noted in Monday's report and sold our Thailand long (break of pivot support) for a gain of 8%, Thai bank long exited at flat. Took off our DJI long for a meager 100 point gain…

United States

KeyCorp is a financial services holding company.  The Company provides a wide range of retail and commercial banking, commercial leasing, investment management, consumer finance and investment banking products and services to individual, corporate and institutional clients.

Regions Financial Corporation is a regional multi-bank holding company.  The Company provides mortgage banking, credit life insurance, leasing, commercial accounts receivable factoring, specialty mortgage financing, and securities brokerage services.  Regions provides banking services throughout the South, Midwest, and Eastern United States.

Citizens Financial Group Inc. provides a full range of commercial banking services for retail and Institutional customers. The Bank offers consumer loans, commercial loans, mortgage loans, deposit products, internet banking, and trust services.

Fifth Third Bancorp is a diversified financial services company that operates banking centers in the Midwestern and Southeastern regions of the United States. The Company's principal businesses include retail banking, commercial banking, investment advisory, and data processing.

First Citizens BancShares, Inc. is the holding company for First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company and Ironstone Bank.  First-Citizens serves North Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia.  Ironstone operates in Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida.

M&T Bank Corporation is a bank holding company. The Company, through its banking subsidiaries, offer a variety of commercial banking, trust, and investment services to their customers.  M&T Bank operates branch offices in New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.

East West Bancorp, Inc. is the holding company for East-West Bank.  The Bank is a commercial bank specializing in commercial, construction, and real estate lending as well as financing international trade.  East-West operates throughout Los Angeles, Orange, San Francisco and Santa Clara counties.

First Horizon National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides a range of financial services. The Company offers a variety of commercial banking services and also conducts mortgage banking, capital markets, and transaction processing.

Zions Bancorporation is a bank holding company that operates full-service banking offices in western United States. The Company also offers an array of investment, mortgage, insurance, and electronic commerce services.  In addition, Zions provides financing solutions for small businesses across the United States.

Western Alliance Bancorp is a multi-bank holding company.  The Company provides a full range of banking and related services to businesses and consumers in Nevada, Arizona, and California.

Hang Seng Bank Limited and its subsidiaries provide banking and related financial services.

CIMB Group Holdings Berhad provides commercial banking and related financial services. The Company and its subsidiaries, operate as a regional universal bank offering a full range of financial products and services, covering corporate and investment banking, consumer banking, treasury, insurance and asset management.

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

CTBC Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides a variety of banking and financial services, including deposit, loan, guarantee, international banking, trust banking, credit card, investment banking, safety deposit box, and Internet banking services.

Punjab National Bank provides financial services such as corporate and personal banking, industrial finance, agricultural finance, financing of trade and international banking. The Company provides services to domestic conglomerates, medium and small industrial units, exporters, non-resident Indians and multinational companies.

Bank of Baroda owns and operates commercial banks in India.  The Group's banks provide the traditional forms of banking services, including CD's, Credit Card services and a variety of car loans, in addition to gold banking and a range of insurance services.  The Group also owns IBU International Finance Limited, an international banking company in Hong Kong.

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

Bank of Nanjing Co., Ltd. operates commercial banking businesses. The Company offers deposits, loans, settlement, discounting, financial bond issuance, government bond underwriting, bank guarantee, and other related financial services. Bank of Nanjing provides services for enterprises and individuals.

KB Financial Group Inc. (the "Company"), in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on September 29, 2008, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries including Kookmin Bank in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies. The headquarters are located at Seoul, Korea

E.Sun Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides banking, brokerage and dealer services.

Huntington Bancshares Incorporated is a multi-state bank holding company.  The Company's subsidiaries provide full-service commercial and consumer banking services, mortgage banking services, automobile financing, equipment leasing, investment management, trust services, brokerage services, customized insurance service programs, and other financial products and services.

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Huntington Bancshares (HBAN US)

US Banks – Provisions To Halve?

There are vast differences in provisioning done for US banks during 1Q20. There are some banks that indicate a similar high level of provisions...

Daniel Tabbush

U. S. Banks Are Breaking Out -- Buy

Bank stocks are breaking out this week from base patterns, and are among one of the timeliest Groups in which to add exposure. The size of these...

Vermilion Research

The New Future of US Banking and Financial Services Regulation

The presidential election has opened the possibility of significant changes to the Dodd-Frank Act regime that has been implemented over the last...

Dechert LLP

Implications of the 2016 Election for Banks and Systemically Important Financial Institutions

Campaign promises rarely turn into specific actions, but when they do, they are necessarily impacted by the dynamics of the legislative process....

Dechert LLP

NFP Positioning and Trade Points

Chartonics Friday 2 September 2016To view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/PLkxgq2WFM 5:15 min.NFP positioningWe used mild strength...

Thomas Schroeder

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