Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/los-andes-copper-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35434:1" rel="noopener">Los Andes Copper Ltd (LA CN)</a> published its long-awaited PFS in late February. The PFS shows an NPV of 2.77 billion USD vs a 240 million USD market cap.</li>
<li>In our opinion, LA is one of the largest, Chile-based copper miners without a strategic investment partner. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lundin-mining-corp-92352503-3781-4fcb-a4db-62e6f6343783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25356:1" rel="noopener">Lundin Mining (LUN CN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hudbay-minerals-inc-79e1a8a8-5377-44fa-b0d2-453fa494a1fa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33286:1" rel="noopener">,  Hudbay Minerals Inc (HBM US) and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glencore-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:764:1" rel="noopener">Glencore Plc (GLEN LN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hudbay-minerals-inc-79e1a8a8-5377-44fa-b0d2-453fa494a1fa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33286:1" rel="noopener"> have announced offers for copper producers recently. Last year Rio and BHP also made copper acquisitions.</a>
</li>
</ul>



Los Andes Copper Ltd (LA CN) published its long-awaited PFS in late February. The PFS shows an NPV of 2.77 billion USD vs a 240 million USD market cap.
In our opinion, LA is one of the largest, Chile-based copper miners without a strategic investment partner. 

Lundin Mining (LUN CN),  Hudbay Minerals Inc (HBM US) and Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) have announced offers for copper producers recently. Last year Rio and BHP also made copper acquisitions.



Los Andes Copper: PFS Published and M&A Scene Heating Up

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Amman Mineral Internasional / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ)</a>, an Indonesian copper-gold producer, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Bookbuilding runs from 31 May to 16 June.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amman-mineral-internasional-ipo-the-investment-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:103755" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: The Investment Case</a></em></strong>. </li>
<li>In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range of IDR1,650-1,775 per share is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ), an Indonesian copper-gold producer, has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Bookbuilding runs from 31 May to 16 June.
We previously discussed the IPO in Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: The Investment Case. 
In this note, we discuss valuation. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range of IDR1,650-1,775 per share is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.


Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>’s A$28.25 offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$27.37-30.47. </li>
<li>Copper prices and peers’ share prices have risen since the deal announcement. The IFA address perky copper prices by using reasonable long-term copper prices to value the assets.</li>
<li>This is done with no hint of a competing bid. At last close price and for the 2 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.9% and 6.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


The IE considers BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)’s A$28.25 offer for OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$27.37-30.47. 
Copper prices and peers’ share prices have risen since the deal announcement. The IFA address perky copper prices by using reasonable long-term copper prices to value the assets.
This is done with no hint of a competing bid. At last close price and for the 2 May payment, the gross and annualised spread is 0.9% and 6.1%, respectively.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> has entered into a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> at A$28.25 per share, a 49.3% premium to the undisturbed price (5 August).</li>
<li>The offer price is attractive. The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory (Brazil and Vietnam) approvals. The scheme meeting is in late March/early April 2023. </li>
<li>The key risk is the rise in copper prices. At last close and for the end-April payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.6% and 4.8%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) has entered into a SID with BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) at A$28.25 per share, a 49.3% premium to the undisturbed price (5 August).
The offer price is attractive. The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory (Brazil and Vietnam) approvals. The scheme meeting is in late March/early April 2023. 
The key risk is the rise in copper prices. At last close and for the end-April payment, the gross and annualised spread to the offer is 1.6% and 4.8%, respectively.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s SID with BHP at A$28.25

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> has received a revised non-binding indicative offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a> at A$28.25 per share, a 13.0% premium to the previously rejected offer.</li>
<li>The Board has granted four weeks of due diligence and intends to recommend a binding offer at A$28.25 per share, in the absence of a superior proposal.</li>
<li>While the offer is below the rumoured Board's target of a A$30 offer, it is still attractive. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 3.3%.</li>
</ul>



OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) has received a revised non-binding indicative offer from BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) at A$28.25 per share, a 13.0% premium to the previously rejected offer.
The Board has granted four weeks of due diligence and intends to recommend a binding offer at A$28.25 per share, in the absence of a superior proposal.
While the offer is below the rumoured Board's target of a A$30 offer, it is still attractive. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 3.3%.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s A$28.25 Non-Binding Offer from BHP

Peru

Hudbay Minerals Inc. operates as a mining company. The Company mines and produces zinc, copper, gold, and silver. Hudbay Minerals offers its services across the Americas .

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Hudbay Minerals Inc (HBM US)

Los Andes Copper: PFS Published and M&A Scene Heating Up

Los Andes Copper is a sitting duck in the current copper M&A frenzy. Lundin, Hudbay and Glencore have all recently announced copper acquisitions....

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Amman Mineral Internasional IPO: Valuation Insights

Amman has launched an IDX IPO to raise US$870 million. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. We would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting on 13 April

Despite perky copper prices, this is a done deal with no hint of a competing bid. At the last close price and for the 2 May payment, the annualised...

Arun George

OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s SID with BHP at A$28.25

This is a done deal barring a dramatic increase in copper prices. At the last close and for the end-April payment, the annualised spread is 4.8%.

Arun George

OZ Minerals (OZL AU)’s A$28.25 Non-Binding Offer from BHP

While the offer is below the rumoured Board's target of a A$30 offer, it is still attractive. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is...

Arun George

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