China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

The latest rebound of the Chinese economy is a reminder of how the country’s financial and industrial sector is in the strong grasp of Beijing. Last month’s unexpected industrial sector growth catapulted the belief of government’s interferance into the market which is leveraged by a strong real estate growth and government spending.Retail sales for August show an increase with the retail sales of consumer goods hiking to 10.6 from 10.2, depicting a strong increase in consumer spending. This…

The latest rebound of the Chinese economy is a reminder of how the country’s financial and industrial sector is in the strong grasp of Beijing. Last month’s unexpected industrial sector growth catapulted the belief of government’s interferance into the market which is leveraged by a strong real estate growth and government spending.Retail sales for August show an increase with the retail sales of consumer goods hiking to 10.6 from 10.2, depicting a strong increase in consumer spending. This…

Underlying Retail Sales Weakness in China

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13644" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13644:1">Coach Inc (COH US)</a> fell another -2.3% today in the US after an analyst downgrade, and the stock is down -14.4% since reporting unexciting Q4 FY16 earnings results on the morning of August 9th. We remain bearish on the stock; in our view, the Street's sales and earnings estimates for FY17 and FY18 remain far too optimistic given weaker spending by Asian tourists in the US and overly aggressive Street assumptions for Japanese and Chinese consumer spending. We also believe that COH will struggle to…

Coach Inc (COH US) fell another -2.3% today in the US after an analyst downgrade, and the stock is down -14.4% since reporting unexciting Q4 FY16 earnings results on the morning of August 9th. We remain bearish on the stock; in our view, the Street's sales and earnings estimates for FY17 and FY18 remain far too optimistic given weaker spending by Asian tourists in the US and overly aggressive Street assumptions for Japanese and Chinese consumer spending. We also believe that COH will struggle to…

July Tourism & Macro Data Suggest Coach Q1 FY17 Will Disappoint

The recent consumer and producer price indexes had people feeling relieved that pricing pressures seem to have abated somewhat.  CPI came it below expectations at 1.3% but still firmly positive while PPI ticked from its long term decline to a year over year decline of 0.8%.  This has many believing the pricing pressures are near an end in China and that broader based price level increases returning.  However, as with all things China it is important to look behind the broader based data.The PPI…

The recent consumer and producer price indexes had people feeling relieved that pricing pressures seem to have abated somewhat.  CPI came it below expectations at 1.3% but still firmly positive while PPI ticked from its long term decline to a year over year decline of 0.8%.  This has many believing the pricing pressures are near an end in China and that broader based price level increases returning.  However, as with all things China it is important to look behind the broader based data.The PPI…

Breaking Down Chinese Inflation Data: More Than Meets the Eye

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David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

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<ul>
<li> In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.</li>
<li>A large part of the weakness stems from severe flooding (the worst since 1998) in northern and central China. It is estimated that floods have resulted in $33 billion in losses.</li>
<li>We believe that weakness seen in the CSI during August is the result of panic among consumers in reaction to the flood and not a reflection of…</li>
</ul>


 In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.
A large part of the weakness stems from severe flooding (the worst since 1998) in northern and central China. It is estimated that floods have resulted in $33 billion in losses.
We believe that weakness seen in the CSI during August is the result of panic among consumers in reaction to the flood and not a reflection of…


China Consumer Sentiment Drops in August As Flood Causes Panic - Actual Impact Insignificant

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This phenomenon owes much of the credit to the government’s credit injection into the economy and its subsequent tightening. Nevertheless, official retail sales data for July seems to be projecting the shift of consumer spending depicting the change in consumer choice.The total retail sales of consumer goods in July remained steady at 2,682. Although this…

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This phenomenon owes much of the credit to the government’s credit injection into the economy and its subsequent tightening. Nevertheless, official retail sales data for July seems to be projecting the shift of consumer spending depicting the change in consumer choice.The total retail sales of consumer goods in July remained steady at 2,682. Although this…

Retail Sales in China Outside Headline Numbers Remain Weak

China

Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited manufactures and sells auto parts. The Company's main products include interior and exterior auto parts, functional assembly autoparts and thermo processed auto parts etc.

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Huayu Automotive Systems A (600741 CH)

Underlying Retail Sales Weakness in China

The latest rebound of the Chinese economy is a reminder of how the country’s financial and industrial sector is in the strong grasp of Beijing....

Christopher Balding

July Tourism & Macro Data Suggest Coach Q1 FY17 Will Disappoint

Coach Inc (COH US) fell another -2.3% today in the US after an analyst downgrade, and the stock is down -14.4% since reporting unexciting Q4 FY16...

Daniel Hellberg

Breaking Down Chinese Inflation Data: More Than Meets the Eye

The recent consumer and producer price indexes had people feeling relieved that pricing pressures seem to have abated somewhat. CPI came it below...

Christopher Balding

China Consumer Sentiment Drops in August As Flood Causes Panic - Actual Impact Insignificant

In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating...

David Riedel

Retail Sales in China Outside Headline Numbers Remain Weak

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This...

Christopher Balding

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