Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Beijing Kingsoft Office Softwa / Event-Driven

<p>We are nearly 95% through the review period for the June review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>. With a large AUM in ETFs tracking the index, large open interest on the CFFEX listed futures, and volatile stocks, it could pay to look at the potential changes to the index.</p><p>China Securities Index Co (CSI) will announce the changes end May/beginning June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.</p><p>We expect 30 changes at the upcoming June 2021 index review - this is the maximum number of changes that are permitted at a single review. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.08% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 10.8bn.</p><p>The expected inclusions have outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> on a year to date basis even post the momentum selloff that started in February. Buying the inclusion basket vs selling the CSI300 futures as a hedge could provide good market neutral returns over the next few weeks.</p>

We are nearly 95% through the review period for the June review of the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX). With a large AUM in ETFs tracking the index, large open interest on the CFFEX listed futures, and volatile stocks, it could pay to look at the potential changes to the index.China Securities Index Co (CSI) will announce the changes end May/beginning June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 11 June.We expect 30 changes at the upcoming June 2021 index review - this is the maximum number of changes that are permitted at a single review. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.08% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 10.8bn.The expected inclusions have outperformed the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) on a year to date basis even post the momentum selloff that started in February. Buying the inclusion basket vs selling the CSI300 futures as a hedge could provide good market neutral returns over the next few weeks.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Recovering from the Growth Sell-Off

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets. </p>
</div><h3>Macro Insights</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-snag-in-succession-points-to-deeper-weaknesses-in-political-system" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Singapore: Snag in Succession Points to Deeper Weaknesses in Political System</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/manu-bhaskaran" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Manu Bhaskaran</a> discusses the recent hiccup with succession plans in Singapore and the political consequences. </p><h3>Equity Bottom Up</h3><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/grab-biting-the-bullet-with-a-spac-listing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Grab - Biting the Bullet with a SPAC Listing?</a>, CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> reports back on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Grab (0967655D SP)</a> as it looks to be going ahead with a SPAC listing through Altimeter Capital in the US. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/siloam-international-hospital-silo-ij-a-quickening-metabolism" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ) - A Quickening Metabolism</a>, CrossASEAN insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siloam-international-hospital" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ)</a> after the company released a very solid set of FY2020 numbers. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/airport-of-thailand-aot-3rd-wave-is-a-charm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50212" rel="noopener">Airport of Thailand (AOT): 3rd Wave Is a Charm</a>, CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/henry-soediarko" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006" rel="noopener">Henry Soediarko</a> discusses the outlook for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> in light of rising COVID-19 cases in Thailand.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thaibev-beerco-pre-ipo-valuation-updates-and-crystallizing-growth-potential-for-beerco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50198" rel="noopener">ThaiBev BeerCo Pre-IPO - Valuation Updates and Crystallizing Growth Potential for BeerCo</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/zhen-zhou-toh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:673" rel="noopener">Zhen Zhou, Toh</a> updates on the progress on this upcoming IPO and looks at the valuations for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> in light of the impending spin-off. </p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chib-better-capitalisation-liquidity-efficiency-offset-asset-quality-concerns" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> CHIB: Better Capitalisation, Liquidity &amp; Efficiency Offset Asset Quality Concerns</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/paul-hollingworth" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Paul Hollingworth</a> reports back on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-banking-corporation" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> China Banking (CHIB PM)</a> after its FY20/19 results show strong fundamental trends.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/vng-vinagame-the-only-tech-unicorn-in-vietnam" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> VNG (VinaGame): The Only Tech Unicorn In Vietnam</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/alec-tseung" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Alec Tseung</a> discusses<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinagame-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Vinagame Corp (0113477D VN)</a> and sees exciting prospects ahead.  </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-exchange-into-merlion-s-mouth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50177" rel="noopener">Singapore Exchange – Into Merlion’s Mouth</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> takes a look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> in light of its recent plans to allow SPAC listings but does not see this as any sort of panacea.</p><h3>Sector and Thematic </h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-m-a-guide-2021-thailand" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Quiddity M&amp;A Guide 2021: Thailand</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> David Blennerhassett</a> provides an updated guide on Mergers and acquisitions of public companies in Thailand. </p><h3>Credit Insights</h3><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indika-energy-earnings-flash-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Indika Energy - Earnings Flash - FY 2020 Results - Lucror Analytics</a>, credit specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> revisits<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indika-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Indika Energy (INDY IJ)</a> after its FY 2020 results came in weaker than expected. He expects the company will have a  better performance in FY2021.</p><p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/morning-views-asia-china-aoyuan-property-cifi-holdings-lippo-karawaci-sirtex-medical" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Morning Views Asia: China Aoyuan Property, CIFI Holdings, Lippo Karawaci, Sirtex Medical</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> provides an update on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ)</a> after the company reported a strong set of Q1/21 marketing sales. </p>


The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets. 
Macro InsightsIn Singapore: Snag in Succession Points to Deeper Weaknesses in Political System, Manu Bhaskaran discusses the recent hiccup with succession plans in Singapore and the political consequences. Equity Bottom UpIn Grab - Biting the Bullet with a SPAC Listing?, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh reports back on Grab (0967655D SP) as it looks to be going ahead with a SPAC listing through Altimeter Capital in the US. In Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ) - A Quickening Metabolism, CrossASEAN insight provider Angus Mackintosh revisits Siloam International Hospital (SILO IJ) after the company released a very solid set of FY2020 numbers. In Airport of Thailand (AOT): 3rd Wave Is a Charm, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Henry Soediarko discusses the outlook for Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) in light of rising COVID-19 cases in Thailand.In ThaiBev BeerCo Pre-IPO - Valuation Updates and Crystallizing Growth Potential for BeerCo, Zhen Zhou, Toh updates on the progress on this upcoming IPO and looks at the valuations for Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) in light of the impending spin-off. In CHIB: Better Capitalisation, Liquidity &amp; Efficiency Offset Asset Quality Concerns, Paul Hollingworth reports back on China Banking (CHIB PM) after its FY20/19 results show strong fundamental trends.In VNG (VinaGame): The Only Tech Unicorn In Vietnam, Alec Tseung discusses Vinagame Corp (0113477D VN) and sees exciting prospects ahead.  In Singapore Exchange – Into Merlion’s Mouth, Thomas J. Monaco takes a look at SGX (SGX SP) in light of its recent plans to allow SPAC listings but does not see this as any sort of panacea.Sector and Thematic In Quiddity M&amp;A Guide 2021: Thailand, David Blennerhassett provides an updated guide on Mergers and acquisitions of public companies in Thailand. Credit InsightsIn Indika Energy - Earnings Flash - FY 2020 Results - Lucror Analytics, credit specialist Trung Nguyen revisits Indika Energy (INDY IJ) after its FY 2020 results came in weaker than expected. He expects the company will have a  better performance in FY2021.In Morning Views Asia: China Aoyuan Property, CIFI Holdings, Lippo Karawaci, Sirtex Medical, Trung Nguyen provides an update on Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) after the company reported a strong set of Q1/21 marketing sales. 

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Grab's SPAC Plans, Indonesia Hospitals, and ThaiBev

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Quantitative Analysis

<div>
<p>Spreads narrowed sharply this week with 68 of 100 liquid spreads narrowing, 32 widening. The big winner on the week was Consumer narrowing 2.46% as every spread in the space narrowed despite five of six stocks falling in Hs (i.e. As fell even more). </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-chenming-paper-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13775:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Chenming Paper H (1812 HK)</a> situation intruded on the H/S spreads this week as the decision to convert the B shares to Hs (described by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/david-blennerhassett" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:840" rel="noopener">David Blennerhassett</a> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/shandong-chenming-paper-1812-hk-the-h-b-convergence-trade" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49247" rel="noopener">Shandong Chenming Paper (1812 HK): The H/B Convergence Trade</a> mid-week) caused ructions in the H/A spread.</p>
<p>But overall, it was a decent week. Only two sectors saw spreads widen (Energy and Utilities), both accompanied by net southbound selling in the week to Wednesday (the last day to which we have granular name-by-name data).</p>
<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><p>Sector</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Last Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Previous Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>3wks Ago</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>4wks Ago</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Consumer</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.46%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.74%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.14%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.65%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Energy</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.39%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.56%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.36%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.67%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Financials &amp; Real Estate</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.92%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.53%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.19%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.12%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Health Care &amp; Info Tech</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.50%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.29%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.54%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  2.86%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Industrials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.19%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.15%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.42%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Materials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.42%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.61%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.33%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.84%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Utilities</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.91%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.87%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.25%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.14%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p><strong>Sector Average</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.88%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.41%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>-  0.26%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>-  1.02%</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p><strong>All Market Average</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.96%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.59%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>+ 0.05%</strong></p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p><strong>-  1.22%</strong></p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div><div><div></div></div><p><span>10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to fall. This past week ended at 20% down from 23% in the ten days to 12 March. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is still under 20%.</span></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/770/original/Screenshot+2021-03-20+at+8.25.25+PM.png?1616243179" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195770"></figure></section><div><div>
<hr>
<h3>The H/A Spread Market</h3>
</div></div><div><p>The past week has seen H-shares come off, but spreads narrow as Hs outperformed their As pretty dramatically. Interestingly, the narrower the spread, to start with, the better the performance on the week. Ideally, spread players want to see that red line sloping downward from upper left to lower right because even a big spread movement for a 70% discount stock means very large performance is needed to catch up. </p></div><div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/724/original/Screenshot+2021-03-20+at+5.41.02+PM.png?1616233277" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195724"></figure></section></div><div>
<p>The average discount has started tightening again and we are at 38% which is where the spread rebounded to un Q2 of 2020 after widening in the Covid-crash. </p>
<p>In 2019, spreads spent a fairly long time in the 34-36% average. </p>
</div><section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/728/original/Screenshot+2021-03-20+at+5.44.03+PM.png?1616233457" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195728"></figure></section></section><hr><div><div><h2>Last Week's Recommendations</h2></div></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>There were 81 recommendations last week.</li>
<li>Positive alpha returned. There were 49 long spreads and 32 short spreads which gained on average 27bp against the delta-neutral gain of 0.20%, indicating spread alpha of 7bp on the week. This is back to a good trend after a horrible week the week before.</li>
<li>There are <em>nearly</em> 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  </li>
</ul></div><hr><div><div><h2>Consumer Sector</h2></div></div><div>
<p>The first sector discussed is Consumer. It was a complex week there. </p>
<ul>
<li>Five out of six H-shares were down on the week. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> was up 10.6%.</li>
<li>All six spreads narrowed with the average H-share outperformance of A at 2.46%. It was a strong week for every spread in the group. </li>
<li>Normally when this happens, there is significant net selling by Southbound. This week saw net buying of HK$270mm to Wednesday, halting four straight weeks prior of net selling. </li>
</ul>
</div><div></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week, I recommended keeping the shorts (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a>) and the long in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a> and adding a long on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> H vs A.</p>
<p>Those trades lost an average of 0.51% last week in spread terms after losing 29bp the week before, and 16bp the week before that. Despite three losing weeks in a row, positioning in the sector is still up 262bp in four weeks. </p>
<p>This week's trade recommendations are below the fold.</p>
</div></div></div><div><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/195/729/original/Screenshot+2021-03-20+at+5.44.45+PM.png?1616233498" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="195729"></figure></section></div><div><section>For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.</section></div>


Spreads narrowed sharply this week with 68 of 100 liquid spreads narrowing, 32 widening. The big winner on the week was Consumer narrowing 2.46% as every spread in the space narrowed despite five of six stocks falling in Hs (i.e. As fell even more). 
The Shandong Chenming Paper H (1812 HK) situation intruded on the H/S spreads this week as the decision to convert the B shares to Hs (described by David Blennerhassett in Shandong Chenming Paper (1812 HK): The H/B Convergence Trade mid-week) caused ructions in the H/A spread.
But overall, it was a decent week. Only two sectors saw spreads widen (Energy and Utilities), both accompanied by net southbound selling in the week to Wednesday (the last day to which we have granular name-by-name data).


Sector
Last Week
Previous Week
3wks Ago
4wks Ago


Consumer
+ 2.46%
+ 0.74%
-  0.14%
-  1.65%


Energy
-  0.39%
-  0.56%
-  0.36%
+ 0.67%


Financials &amp; Real Estate
+ 0.92%
+ 0.53%
+ 1.19%
-  1.12%


Health Care &amp; Info Tech
+ 1.50%
+ 2.29%
-  0.54%
-  2.86%


Industrials
+ 1.19%
+ 0.15%
-  0.42%
-  1.20%


Materials
+ 1.42%
+ 0.61%
-  0.33%
-  0.84%


Utilities
-  0.91%
-  0.87%
-  1.25%
-  0.14%


Sector Average
+ 0.88%
+ 0.41%
-  0.26%
-  1.02%


All Market Average
+ 0.96%
+ 0.59%
+ 0.05%
-  1.22%


10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to fall. This past week ended at 20% down from 23% in the ten days to 12 March. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is still under 20%.

The H/A Spread Market
The past week has seen H-shares come off, but spreads narrow as Hs outperformed their As pretty dramatically. Interestingly, the narrower the spread, to start with, the better the performance on the week. Ideally, spread players want to see that red line sloping downward from upper left to lower right because even a big spread movement for a 70% discount stock means very large performance is needed to catch up. 
The average discount has started tightening again and we are at 38% which is where the spread rebounded to un Q2 of 2020 after widening in the Covid-crash. 
In 2019, spreads spent a fairly long time in the 34-36% average. 
Last Week's Recommendations
There were 81 recommendations last week.
Positive alpha returned. There were 49 long spreads and 32 short spreads which gained on average 27bp against the delta-neutral gain of 0.20%, indicating spread alpha of 7bp on the week. This is back to a good trend after a horrible week the week before.
There are nearly 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  
Consumer Sector
The first sector discussed is Consumer. It was a complex week there. 

Five out of six H-shares were down on the week. Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) was up 10.6%.
All six spreads narrowed with the average H-share outperformance of A at 2.46%. It was a strong week for every spread in the group. 
Normally when this happens, there is significant net selling by Southbound. This week saw net buying of HK$270mm to Wednesday, halting four straight weeks prior of net selling. 


Last week, I recommended keeping the shorts (BYD (1211 HK) and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)) and the long in Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK) and adding a long on Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) H vs A.
Those trades lost an average of 0.51% last week in spread terms after losing 29bp the week before, and 16bp the week before that. Despite three losing weeks in a row, positioning in the sector is still up 262bp in four weeks. 
This week's trade recommendations are below the fold.
For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.

Quiddity Weekly H/A: Consumer Strong, Spreads Narrowing Masks A-Share Weakness

<div><p>Spreads generally narrowed this week with 63 of 100 liquid spreads narrowing, 37 widening. The big winner on the week was Health Care and Tech narrowing 2.3%. One tech name <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flat-glass-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1108:1" rel="noopener">Flat Glass (6865 HK)</a> moved 10+% while several healthcare names saw spreads narrow 3-7% each, all happening in a somewhat lackluster week for outright performance. Overall, five of seven sectors represented saw spreads narrow.</p></div><div><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td><p>Sector</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Last Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>Previous Week</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>3wks Ago</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>4wks Ago</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Consumer</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.74%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.14%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.65%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Energy</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.56%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.36%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.67%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.43%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Financials &amp; Real Estate</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.53%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.19%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.12%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.10%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Health Care &amp; Info Tech</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 2.29%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.54%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  2.86%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 1.45%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Industrials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.15%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.42%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.20%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.26%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Materials</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.61%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.33%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.84%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 3.08%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Utilities</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.87%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.25%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.14%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.99%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>Sector Average</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.41%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  0.26%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.02%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.87%</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><p>All Market Average</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.59%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.05%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>-  1.22%</p></td>
<td style="text-align: right;"><p>+ 0.76%</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div><div><div></div></div><p>10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to be somewhat high at 23% annualised. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is still just under 20%.</p><div><div>
<hr>
<h3>The H/A Spread Market</h3>
</div></div><div><p>The past week has seen H-shares come off sharply and spreads widen reasonably dramatically. </p></div><section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/200/original/Screenshot+2021-03-14+at+9.05.58+AM.png?1615683976" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194200"></figure><p></p></section></section><p>The average discount appears not to want to tighten, still. The average spread has kept at around 40.0% plus or minus a small bit for the past eight weeks or so (despite that illiquidity-bump around LNY). This week we narrowed just inside 40%.</p><section><section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/201/original/Screenshot+2021-03-14+at+9.08.22+AM.png?1615684116" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194201"></figure></section><p></p></section></section><hr><div><div><h2>Last Week's Recommendations</h2></div></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>There were 80 recommendations last week.</li>
<li>This is the second week of negative alpha for the portfolio strategy in as many weeks. The average trade loss 22bp and only 31 of 80 trades recommended was up on the week. Shorts were particularly to blame as spread compression among the names in the 10-25% discount range was much wider than in the 35-60% discount range.</li>
<li>There are <em>nearly</em> 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  </li>
</ul></div><hr><div><div><h2>Consumer Sector</h2></div></div><div><p>The first sector discussed is Consumer, where most H-shares fell on the week. Shares averaged down 1.4% this past week after gaining 0.6% the week before. The two gainers from the prior week both fell this week.</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Spreads were less tame, but momentum continues to be strong.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> ended the week down 2% despite good production numbers out at the end of the week prior. BYD is down 28% in four weeks. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> continued to fall and the spread continued to widen. It is now 13% wider over 4 weeks, but is still the second-narrowest spread in the sector at 21% vs the average spread in the sector at -30%.</li>
<li>Southbound was a net seller of nearly HK$611mm after selling nearly that amount the prior week and HK$2bn in the two weeks before that. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> saw continued net buying by southbound, which added about 60bp of H-share float ownership on the week through Wednesday.</li>
</ul></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week, I recommended staying short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> H vs A, unwinding the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a> short, and replacing the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> long with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-automobile-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11082:1" rel="noopener">Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)</a>. </p>
<p>Those trades lost an average of 0.29% last week in spread terms after losing 16bp the week before, but gaining 3.58% the week before that. </p>
</div></div></div><div>
<section class="figure"><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/194/249/original/Screenshot+2021-03-14+at+11.50.08+AM.png?1615693825" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="194249"></figure><p></p></section></section><section class="figure">For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.</section>
</div>

Spreads generally narrowed this week with 63 of 100 liquid spreads narrowing, 37 widening. The big winner on the week was Health Care and Tech narrowing 2.3%. One tech name Flat Glass (6865 HK) moved 10+% while several healthcare names saw spreads narrow 3-7% each, all happening in a somewhat lackluster week for outright performance. Overall, five of seven sectors represented saw spreads narrow.

Sector
Last Week
Previous Week
3wks Ago
4wks Ago


Consumer
+ 0.74%
-  0.14%
-  1.65%
-  1.20%


Energy
-  0.56%
-  0.36%
+ 0.67%
+ 1.43%


Financials &amp; Real Estate
+ 0.53%
+ 1.19%
-  1.12%
+ 0.10%


Health Care &amp; Info Tech
+ 2.29%
-  0.54%
-  2.86%
+ 1.45%


Industrials
+ 0.15%
-  0.42%
-  1.20%
+ 0.26%


Materials
+ 0.61%
-  0.33%
-  0.84%
+ 3.08%


Utilities
-  0.87%
-  1.25%
-  0.14%
+ 0.99%


Sector Average
+ 0.41%
-  0.26%
-  1.02%
+ 0.87%


All Market Average
+ 0.59%
+ 0.05%
-  1.22%
+ 0.76%

10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to be somewhat high at 23% annualised. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is still just under 20%.

The H/A Spread Market
The past week has seen H-shares come off sharply and spreads widen reasonably dramatically. The average discount appears not to want to tighten, still. The average spread has kept at around 40.0% plus or minus a small bit for the past eight weeks or so (despite that illiquidity-bump around LNY). This week we narrowed just inside 40%.Last Week's Recommendations
There were 80 recommendations last week.
This is the second week of negative alpha for the portfolio strategy in as many weeks. The average trade loss 22bp and only 31 of 80 trades recommended was up on the week. Shorts were particularly to blame as spread compression among the names in the 10-25% discount range was much wider than in the 35-60% discount range.
There are nearly 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  
Consumer SectorThe first sector discussed is Consumer, where most H-shares fell on the week. Shares averaged down 1.4% this past week after gaining 0.6% the week before. The two gainers from the prior week both fell this week.
Spreads were less tame, but momentum continues to be strong.

BYD (1211 HK) ended the week down 2% despite good production numbers out at the end of the week prior. BYD is down 28% in four weeks. 

Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) continued to fall and the spread continued to widen. It is now 13% wider over 4 weeks, but is still the second-narrowest spread in the sector at 21% vs the average spread in the sector at -30%.
Southbound was a net seller of nearly HK$611mm after selling nearly that amount the prior week and HK$2bn in the two weeks before that. Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) saw continued net buying by southbound, which added about 60bp of H-share float ownership on the week through Wednesday.

Last week, I recommended staying short BYD (1211 HK), and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) H vs A, unwinding the Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK) short, and replacing the Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) long with Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK). 
Those trades lost an average of 0.29% last week in spread terms after losing 16bp the week before, but gaining 3.58% the week before that. 

For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.


Quiddity Weekly H/A: Energy Up, Spreads Wider, Pharmas Down Spreads Narrower

<div>
<p>Spreads were mixed this week with 48 out of 100 observed pair spreads narrower and 52 wider. The big winner on the week was Financials with spreads 119bp narrower on average. Banks and Big Insurance generally narrowed. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Overall, it was a lackluster performance, and one cannot say spreads won't move wider, but at 40% discount (and an arithmetic average upside of 87% for each liquid H to reach parity with its A), this spreads <em>are</em> wide.</p>
</div>
<div>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p><strong>Sector</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p><strong>Last Week</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p><strong>Previous Week</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p><strong>3wks Ago</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p><strong>4wks Ago</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p>Consumer</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p>-  0.14%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p>-  1.65%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p>-  1.20%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p>+ 2.55%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p>Energy</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p>-  0.36%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p>+ 0.67%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p>+ 1.43%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p>-  1.64%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p>Financials &amp; Real Estate</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p>+ 1.19%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p>-  1.12%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p>+ 0.10%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p>+ 0.29%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p>Health Care &amp; Info Tech</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p>-  0.54%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p>-  2.86%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p>+ 1.45%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p>-  1.52%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p>Industrials</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p>-  0.42%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p>-  1.20%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p>+ 0.26%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p>-  0.62%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p>Materials</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p>-  0.33%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p>-  0.84%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p>+ 3.08%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p>-  0.57%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p>Utilities</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p>-  1.25%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p>-  0.14%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p>+ 0.99%</p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p>+ 0.25%</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p><em><strong>Sector Average</strong></em></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p><em><strong>-  0.26%</strong></em></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p><em><strong>-  1.02%</strong></em></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p><em><strong>+ 0.87%</strong></em></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p><em><strong>-  0.18%</strong></em></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 211.818px;">
<p><strong>All Market Average</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 99.0909px;">
<p><strong>- 0.03%</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 136.364px;">
<p><strong>-  1.22%</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 95.4545px;">
<p><strong>+ 0.76%</strong></p>
</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 97.2727px;">
<p><strong>-  0.33%</strong></p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>
<div>
<div></div>
</div>
<div>
<p>10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to be high at 26% annualised. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is quite a bit lower. </p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<hr>
<h3>The H/A Spread Market</h3>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>The past week has seen H-shares come off sharply and spreads widen reasonably dramatically. </p>
</div>
<section>
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/192/678/original/Screenshot+2021-03-07+at+8.28.29+PM.png?1615120136" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="192678"></figure>
</section>
<p></p>
</section>
<div>
<p>The average discount appears not to want to tighten, still. The average spread has kept at around 40.0% for the past four weeks or so (despite that illiquidity-bump around LNY). </p>
</div>
<section>
<section class="figure">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/192/679/original/Screenshot+2021-03-07+at+8.30.27+PM.png?1615120295" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="192679"></figure>
</section>
</section>
<hr>
<div>
<h2>Last Week's Recommendations</h2>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>There were 80 recommendations last week. This was the first losing week on alpha in several. </li>
<li>The 34 short spread recommendations lost an average of 0.12%, underperforming the market as a whole (which saw the average spread widen 0.03%). That is negative alpha of 9bp after positive alpha of 48bp the previous week on 33 spreads.</li>
<li>The 46 long recommendations averaged losses of 4bp during the week, underperforming the market as a whole by 1bp (vs +46bp outperformance the previous week). The combined total package was up -0.07% for the week vs +0.27% for the prior week, with -10bp of cross-bias alpha (vs 92bp of alpha on the cross-bias the previous week).</li>
<li>There are nearly 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  </li>
</ul>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<div>
<h2>Consumer Sector</h2>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p>The first sector discussed is Consumer, where most H-shares fell on the week </p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Spreads were remarkably tame.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> ended the week down 1.1% after rising in the first four days, and the shares even fell Friday despite <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0304/2021030401545.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcing</a> Thursday after the close that production was up 125%yoy in February, and sales +106%. BYD is down 20+% in four weeks. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> was only up small in sympathy, outperforming auto names, and significantly outperforming glass names across other sectors. Thursday saw significant selling of glass names. </li>
<li>Southbound was a net seller of nearly HK$585mm after selling HK$2bn in the previous two weeks. Only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> saw decent Southbound buying on a net basis (+HK$190mm). BYD was the big net sell at -HK$673mm. </li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Last week, I recommended staying long the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a> H vs A, and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisense-home-appliances-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20107:1" rel="noopener">Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuyao-glass-industry-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:330:1" rel="noopener">Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK)</a> H vs A. </p>
<p>Those four trades lost an average of 0.16% last week in spread terms after gaining 3.58% the previous week.</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<section class="figure">
<section class="figure">
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<section>For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.</section>
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Spreads were mixed this week with 48 out of 100 observed pair spreads narrower and 52 wider. The big winner on the week was Financials with spreads 119bp narrower on average. Banks and Big Insurance generally narrowed. 


Overall, it was a lackluster performance, and one cannot say spreads won't move wider, but at 40% discount (and an arithmetic average upside of 87% for each liquid H to reach parity with its A), this spreads are wide.






Sector


Last Week


Previous Week


3wks Ago


4wks Ago




Consumer


-  0.14%


-  1.65%


-  1.20%


+ 2.55%




Energy


-  0.36%


+ 0.67%


+ 1.43%


-  1.64%




Financials &amp; Real Estate


+ 1.19%


-  1.12%


+ 0.10%


+ 0.29%




Health Care &amp; Info Tech


-  0.54%


-  2.86%


+ 1.45%


-  1.52%




Industrials


-  0.42%


-  1.20%


+ 0.26%


-  0.62%




Materials


-  0.33%


-  0.84%


+ 3.08%


-  0.57%




Utilities


-  1.25%


-  0.14%


+ 0.99%


+ 0.25%




Sector Average


-  0.26%


-  1.02%


+ 0.87%


-  0.18%




All Market Average


- 0.03%


-  1.22%


+ 0.76%


-  0.33%









10-day cross-market spread volatility continues to be high at 26% annualised. This is down off highs in the low 30s a couple weeks ago, but the long-term average is quite a bit lower. 




The H/A Spread Market



The past week has seen H-shares come off sharply and spreads widen reasonably dramatically. 








The average discount appears not to want to tighten, still. The average spread has kept at around 40.0% for the past four weeks or so (despite that illiquidity-bump around LNY). 








Last Week's Recommendations



There were 80 recommendations last week. This was the first losing week on alpha in several. 
The 34 short spread recommendations lost an average of 0.12%, underperforming the market as a whole (which saw the average spread widen 0.03%). That is negative alpha of 9bp after positive alpha of 48bp the previous week on 33 spreads.
The 46 long recommendations averaged losses of 4bp during the week, underperforming the market as a whole by 1bp (vs +46bp outperformance the previous week). The combined total package was up -0.07% for the week vs +0.27% for the prior week, with -10bp of cross-bias alpha (vs 92bp of alpha on the cross-bias the previous week).
There are nearly 80 recommendations this week (turnover remains low).  





Consumer Sector



The first sector discussed is Consumer, where most H-shares fell on the week 



Spreads were remarkably tame.

BYD (1211 HK) ended the week down 1.1% after rising in the first four days, and the shares even fell Friday despite announcing Thursday after the close that production was up 125%yoy in February, and sales +106%. BYD is down 20+% in four weeks. 

Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) was only up small in sympathy, outperforming auto names, and significantly outperforming glass names across other sectors. Thursday saw significant selling of glass names. 
Southbound was a net seller of nearly HK$585mm after selling HK$2bn in the previous two weeks. Only Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) saw decent Southbound buying on a net basis (+HK$190mm). BYD was the big net sell at -HK$673mm. 





Last week, I recommended staying long the Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) H vs A, and short BYD (1211 HK), Hisense Home Appliances Group Co., Ltd. H (921 HK), and Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) H vs A. 
Those four trades lost an average of 0.16% last week in spread terms after gaining 3.58% the previous week.












For this week's recommendations on Consumer, and discussion of the Energy, Financials &amp; Real Estate, Health Care, Tech, Industrials, Materials, and Utilities sectors, and all trade recommendations, please read on.


Quiddity Weekly H/A: Financials Outpace Everything Else: Marketwide 87% Upside to A-Share Parity

China

Huadian Power International Corporation Limited generates and sells electricity which is all fed into the Shandong Provincial Grid operated by Shandong Electric Power (Group) Corporation (SEPCO), the immediate holding company of the Company.  The Company also sells heat.

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