Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Equity Bottom-Up

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>Both SMIC &amp; Hua Hong reported Q423 earnings in line with expectations and both guided Q124 flat to slightly down. SMIC expects FY24 mid single digit growth YoY.</li>
<li>The downturn has exposed inherent weakness in China's Semi Foundry segment relative to peers as exemplified by the significant GM disparity</li>
<li>China's two leading semi foundries have ~80% domestic dependence. Right now, that's a headwind</li>
</ul>


Both SMIC &amp; Hua Hong reported Q423 earnings in line with expectations and both guided Q124 flat to slightly down. SMIC expects FY24 mid single digit growth YoY.
The downturn has exposed inherent weakness in China's Semi Foundry segment relative to peers as exemplified by the significant GM disparity
China's two leading semi foundries have ~80% domestic dependence. Right now, that's a headwind


China Semi Foundry: Fierce Competition & Sluggish Rebound In Year Of The Dragon

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.</li>
<li>Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor's. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024. </li>
<li>TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12" mature technology despite better demand 8" specialty technology. </li>
</ul>


TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20-25% y/y growth itself, driven by AI customers. By controlling capex, more rooms to raise dividends but no growth for equipment vendors.
Faster ramp on N3, likely N3E, N3P than competitor's. TSMC expects 3nm from 6% of sales in 3Q23, 12.7% in 4Q23 to 15% in 2024, 3x y/y increase in 2024. 
TSMC reports a nearly 30% q/q drop on IOT and consumer IC demand and sees weakness on 12" mature technology despite better demand 8" specialty technology. 


What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shortage/Oversupply, price hike/cut, automotive/industrial demand and inventory corrections are still cyclical. Gross margin should double from 22-24% now once utilization returning to 100% and no more free wafer by 2025.</li>
<li>LCD driver foundry is facing a structural competition as China panel customers are building a local supply chain.</li>
<li>Attractive below NT$70 as: 1. inventory correction should be done by 2Q24; 2. global 8" foundry sales y/y improvement began 3Q23; 3. closing to cyclical low P/BV of 2.5x.</li>
</ul>


Shortage/Oversupply, price hike/cut, automotive/industrial demand and inventory corrections are still cyclical. Gross margin should double from 22-24% now once utilization returning to 100% and no more free wafer by 2025.
LCD driver foundry is facing a structural competition as China panel customers are building a local supply chain.
Attractive below NT$70 as: 1. inventory correction should be done by 2Q24; 2. global 8" foundry sales y/y improvement began 3Q23; 3. closing to cyclical low P/BV of 2.5x.


Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student, Cyclical or Structural?

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK: US orders halt of 7nm processor sales to China (+/+/-/-)</li>
<li>XPEV US/1810 HK:Xpeng P7+’s pre-order exceeded 30,000 in the first day, posing a challenge to Xiaomi SU7.(///)</li>
<li>1810 HK: Sales of Xiaomi 15 series break 1mn units, faster than prior model (+)</li>
</ul>


981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK: US orders halt of 7nm processor sales to China (+/+/-/-)
XPEV US/1810 HK:Xpeng P7+’s pre-order exceeded 30,000 in the first day, posing a challenge to Xiaomi SU7.(///)
1810 HK: Sales of Xiaomi 15 series break 1mn units, faster than prior model (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK/XPEV US/1810 HK/ZTO US/BABA US/Macro News Updated

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.</li>
<li>End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. </li>
<li>Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.</li>
</ul>


Chinese Foundries (HuaHong, SMIC) have outgrown ex-China (GlobalFoundries, UMC, Vanguard) very significantly. Reacting to US sanctions, Chinese Chip Designers have shifted to domestic Foundries. China / ex-China supply-chains have decoupled.
End-Demand diverged up to 2Q24. Chinese Foundries were mentioning end-demand recovering, customers restocking, tight capacity. Ex-China Foundries mentioning the opposite: weak end-demand, customers destocking, low utilization. 
Change of direction in 3Q24. Chinese Foundries become cautious, we see an obvious inventory problem on overblown end-demand growth expectations. Ex-China end-demand is stabilizing, destocking coming to an end.


Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

China

Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited manufactures semiconductors on 200mm wafers for specialty applications. The Company's products are used in the consumer electronic, communication, computing and industrial, and automotive industries.

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Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)

China Semi Foundry: Fierce Competition & Sluggish Rebound In Year Of The Dragon

SMIC & Hua Hong reported in line Q423 & both guided Q124 flat to slightly down. SMIC calls FY24 growth ~+5% YoY. Fierce competition, GM pressure,...

William Keating

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors; TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20...

Andrew Lu

Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student, Cyclical or Structural?

Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student? Some Cyclical or some Structural reasons for the weaknesses coupled with three reasons suggested...

Andrew Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK/XPEV US/1810 HK/ZTO US/BABA US/Macro News Updated

US halts sales of 7nm processors to China; Xpeng P7+ pre-orders surpass 30,000, challenging Xiaomi SU7; Xiaomi 15 series sales exceed 1mn units...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Semi Foundry: Fierce Competition & Sluggish Rebound In Year Of The Dragon

SMIC & Hua Hong reported in line Q423 & both guided Q124 flat to slightly down. SMIC calls FY24 growth ~+5% YoY. Fierce competition, GM pressure,...

William Keating

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors; TSMC expects 2024 semi sector in recovery with 20...

Andrew Lu

Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student, Cyclical or Structural?

Why Is Vanguard Semi Becoming to a Bad Student? Some Cyclical or some Structural reasons for the weaknesses coupled with three reasons suggested...

Andrew Lu

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/TSMC US/9660 HK/XPEV US/1810 HK/ZTO US/BABA US/Macro News Updated

​US halts sales of 7nm processors to China; Xpeng P7+ pre-orders surpass 30,000, challenging Xiaomi SU7; Xiaomi 15 series sales exceed 1mn units...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Foundries. China (Hua Hong, SMIC) Has Outperformed but on Poor Margins & Inventory Risk.

​Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...

Nicolas Baratte

US halts sales of 7nm processors to China; Xpeng P7+ pre-orders surpass 30,000, challenging Xiaomi SU7; Xiaomi 15 series sales exceed 1mn units...

Chinese foundries have overgrown ex-China counterparts, but now face inventory issues. Ex-China foundries are stabilizing, destocking coming to an...