Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Data from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a> is just out with poor 1H24 results YoY</li>
<li>Notable in its release are its Hong Kong overdue exposure by over three months</li>
<li>Hong Kong region income is the worst affected by credit costs, this does not seem to be over</li>
</ul>


Data from Bank of East Asia (23 HK) is just out with poor 1H24 results YoY
Notable in its release are its Hong Kong overdue exposure by over three months
Hong Kong region income is the worst affected by credit costs, this does not seem to be over


BEA - Far Worse Deterioration in Hong Kong than Other Regions & Sharply Lower HFD Centa City Index

National Australia Bank / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NAB reported its 3Q24 results with slightly lower profit, but major divergence inside the figures </li>
<li>The bank shows a staggering decline in credit costs in 3Q24, which means the results were flattered</li>
<li>This is despite a very sharp rise in bad loans in major segments, corporate and residential mortgages, up around 50% YoY annualized in 3Q24</li>
</ul>


NAB reported its 3Q24 results with slightly lower profit, but major divergence inside the figures 
The bank shows a staggering decline in credit costs in 3Q24, which means the results were flattered
This is despite a very sharp rise in bad loans in major segments, corporate and residential mortgages, up around 50% YoY annualized in 3Q24


NAB - Profit Slightly Down in 3Q, Credit Costs Collapsed, but Bad Loans Are Rising Significantly

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index Committee its slow move (lack of movement) towards 100 names and sector rebalancing to tech and healthcare. This is really disappointing.</li>
<li>This time? We get nothing. No name changes. Some capping flows. 6 FAF changes. </li>
<li>Minimal flows on the HSI rebalance to be effective on 9 September. </li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index Committee its slow move (lack of movement) towards 100 names and sector rebalancing to tech and healthcare. This is really disappointing.
This time? We get nothing. No name changes. Some capping flows. 6 FAF changes. 
Minimal flows on the HSI rebalance to be effective on 9 September. 


Hang Seng Index Sep24 Rebal - No Name Changes, Some Capping, 1% One-Way Flow - Total 0️⃣🍔

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>In a surprise (maybe should not have been!), there are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> in September. However, there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 1% and estimated round-trip trade is HK$3.73bn (US$478m). There are no stocks with over +/-0.5x ADV to trade but flows could add to/offset other index flows.</li>
<li>We remain at 82 index constituents and the road to 100 constituents appears to be a long drawn out torturous one. At this glacial pace, could be an eternity away.</li>
</ul>


In a surprise (maybe should not have been!), there are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in September. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 1% and estimated round-trip trade is HK$3.73bn (US$478m). There are no stocks with over +/-0.5x ADV to trade but flows could add to/offset other index flows.
We remain at 82 index constituents and the road to 100 constituents appears to be a long drawn out torturous one. At this glacial pace, could be an eternity away.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Meh (Or Will We Ever Get to 100 Stocks?)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 9th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Baba, HSBC, Ntes, AIA, Bidu, Galaxy Ent.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 9th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Baba, HSBC, Ntes, AIA, Bidu, Galaxy Ent.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, HSBC, Ntes, AIA, Bidu, Galaxy Ent

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

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HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

BEA - Far Worse Deterioration in Hong Kong than Other Regions & Sharply Lower HFD Centa City Index

BEA just released 1H24 net profit - not good. Granular data shows most deterioration in HK region. HFD in real estate, lending suggests this is not...

Daniel Tabbush

NAB - Profit Slightly Down in 3Q, Credit Costs Collapsed, but Bad Loans Are Rising Significantly

NAB reported its 3Q24 results with profit down slightly, but the figure is exaggerated with sharply lower credit costs, despite much higher bad...

Daniel Tabbush

Hang Seng Index Sep24 Rebal - No Name Changes, Some Capping, 1% One-Way Flow - Total 0️⃣🍔

The HSI committee promised changes to rebalance towards better sector representation and a move to 100 names. That was a couple years ago. Progress...

Travis Lundy

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Meh (Or Will We Ever Get to 100 Stocks?)

No constituent changes so we stay at 82 stocks. Reaching 100 stocks is few years away. FAF/capping changes lead to 1-way turnover of 1% and round...

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, HSBC, Ntes, AIA, Bidu, Galaxy Ent

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Aug 9th and highlight short interest changes in Baba, HSBC, Ntes, AIA,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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