Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Bank of East Asia's profit release shows substantial rise of impairment costs </li>
<li>HK consensus data shows significant outflow of persons in past 18 months</li>
<li>Long term Hang Seng Bank data shows risk to profit from impairments</li>
</ul>


Bank of East Asia's profit release shows substantial rise of impairment costs 
HK consensus data shows significant outflow of persons in past 18 months
Long term Hang Seng Bank data shows risk to profit from impairments


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>ANZ announced a US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) raising via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank in Jul 2022.</li>
<li>The institutional part of the entitlement offer saw a strong take up and the retail take up was within our expectations as well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the retail shortfall bookbuild and other updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>


ANZ announced a US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) raising via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank in Jul 2022.
The institutional part of the entitlement offer saw a strong take up and the retail take up was within our expectations as well.
In this note, we will talk about the retail shortfall bookbuild and other updates since our last note.


ANZ Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Retail Shortfall Size Within Expectations at A$688m (US$475m)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HSBC saw its net interest income rise substantially in the year, but it did not flow through</li>
<li>The delta in credit costs was one major negator to the bank's higher core income</li>
<li>Tax expenses turned to tax income, is the ultimate distortion to net profit</li>
</ul>


HSBC saw its net interest income rise substantially in the year, but it did not flow through
The delta in credit costs was one major negator to the bank's higher core income
Tax expenses turned to tax income, is the ultimate distortion to net profit


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.</li>
<li>Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~US$0.46bn, split (+US$0.36bn) for Shanghai and (+US$0.1bn) for Shenzhen.</li>
<li>The largest inflows were into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a>. The largest outflow was in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group Limited (9992 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.
Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~US$0.46bn, split (+US$0.36bn) for Shanghai and (+US$0.1bn) for Shenzhen.
The largest inflows were into Tencent (700 HK) and BYD (1211 HK). The largest outflow was in Pop Mart International Group Limited (9992 HK) and Great Wall Motor (2333 HK).


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (22 July 2022)

<ul>
<li>Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.</li>
<li>Overall, the net outflow over the past week was ~US$0.56bn, split (-US$0.44bn) for Shanghai and (-US$0.12bn) for Shenzhen.</li>
<li>The largest inflows were into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK)</a>. The largest outflow was in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC (883 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Shanghai and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.
Overall, the net outflow over the past week was ~US$0.56bn, split (-US$0.44bn) for Shanghai and (-US$0.12bn) for Shenzhen.
The largest inflows were into Geely Auto (175 HK) and Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK). The largest outflow was in Meituan (3690 HK) and CNOOC (883 HK).


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (15 July 2022)

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

Price Gauge
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HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)

Hong Kong - Exit This Way

Hong Kong's banks show sharply higher impairment costs, and partly from China related lending. This can continue. The acclerating and high HK...

Daniel Tabbush

ANZ Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Retail Shortfall Size Within Expectations at A$688m (US$475m)

ANZ announced a US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) raising via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank in Jul 2022. In this note...

Sumeet Singh

HSBC - Tax Income Grossly Distorts

HSBC's net interest income delta hardly shows up at the bottom line, due in part to the negative delta in credit costs. Net profit is grossly...

Daniel Tabbush

Shanghai/Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (22 July 2022)

Inside is a recap of movements in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect. Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~US$0.46bn, split (+US$0.36bn)...

David Blennerhassett

Shanghai/Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (15 July 2022)

Inside is a recap of movements in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect. Overall, the net outflow over the past week was ~US$0.56bn, split (-US$0.44bn)...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hong Kong - Exit This Way

Hong Kong's banks show sharply higher impairment costs, and partly from China related lending. This can continue. The acclerating and high HK...

Daniel Tabbush

ANZ Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Retail Shortfall Size Within Expectations at A$688m (US$475m)

ANZ announced a US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) raising via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank in Jul 2022. In this note...

Sumeet Singh

HSBC - Tax Income Grossly Distorts

HSBC's net interest income delta hardly shows up at the bottom line, due in part to the negative delta in credit costs. Net profit is grossly...

Daniel Tabbush

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (22 July 2022)

Inside is a recap of movements in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect. Overall, the net inflow over the past week was ~US$0.46bn, split (+US$0.36bn)...

David Blennerhassett

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (15 July 2022)

Inside is a recap of movements in the Shanghai/Shenzhen-HK Connect. Overall, the net outflow over the past week was ~US$0.56bn, split (-US$0.44bn)...

David Blennerhassett

Shanghai/Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (22 July 2022)

Shanghai/Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (15 July 2022)