Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.</li>
<li>Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe</li>
</ul>


We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe


Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celsys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20774:1" rel="noopener">CELSYS (3663 JP)</a> (formerly known as "Artspark") is a name we have been Bullish on in the last few months as it was a high-probability TOPIX Inclusion candidate.</li>
<li>In the last couple of trading days, the stock has popped more than 30%. In this insight, we take a closer look at this situation.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.

CELSYS (3663 JP) (formerly known as "Artspark") is a name we have been Bullish on in the last few months as it was a high-probability TOPIX Inclusion candidate.
In the last couple of trading days, the stock has popped more than 30%. In this insight, we take a closer look at this situation.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2023)

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hoya has an impressive business model that results in high Returns on Invested Capital</li>
<li>Hoya reported strong Q4 results but there is little for investors to get excited about in the outlook</li>
<li>We see a lack of catalysts and an expensive valuation as working against the stock in the short term</li>
</ul>


Hoya has an impressive business model that results in high Returns on Invested Capital
Hoya reported strong Q4 results but there is little for investors to get excited about in the outlook
We see a lack of catalysts and an expensive valuation as working against the stock in the short term


Hoya (7741) | A Visionary Company with a Blurry Future

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX makes  up for yesterday's loss and more; Markets look past Fed and focus on earnings recovery;  Its all about the Pause;   GM Beats but CAT misses; Awaiting AAPL</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% Cash; USDJPY 130.11; Labor Shortages worsening (again), Firms desperate;  BYD seeks to Capture JP EV Market;   Komatsu Beats; Lasertec Misses. </li>
<li>DAILY NUGGETS. 6h 37m: The Average Time Spent Using the Internet.  Japan the outlier..for the better ?</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX makes  up for yesterday's loss and more; Markets look past Fed and focus on earnings recovery;  Its all about the Pause;   GM Beats but CAT misses; Awaiting AAPL
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% Cash; USDJPY 130.11; Labor Shortages worsening (again), Firms desperate;  BYD seeks to Capture JP EV Market;   Komatsu Beats; Lasertec Misses. 
DAILY NUGGETS. 6h 37m: The Average Time Spent Using the Internet.  Japan the outlier..for the better ?


Good Morning Japan |Fed Hike, Powell Speech ? Equities Beyond as Optimism Abounds,from Spotify to GM

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS:  Global rate hikes+weak US Retail fan recession fears ; Tech hit hard: Macro + WDC hit on GS downgrade + NVDIA Sell initiation; Musk Continues to unload TSLA </li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.6% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to ¥137.84; Corp tax hike to fund Defense-says LDP; Sony to expand image sensors; Fast Retailing 3:1 stock split; Decarbonization investments accelerating</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET: Tokyo Electric Power to mine Bitcoin ? Huh ?  Today we take a look at this bit of "breaking news" </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS:  Global rate hikes+weak US Retail fan recession fears ; Tech hit hard: Macro + WDC hit on GS downgrade + NVDIA Sell initiation; Musk Continues to unload TSLA 
JAPAN: NKY Futs -1.6% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to ¥137.84; Corp tax hike to fund Defense-says LDP; Sony to expand image sensors; Fast Retailing 3:1 stock split; Decarbonization investments accelerating
DAILY NUGGET: Tokyo Electric Power to mine Bitcoin ? Huh ?  Today we take a look at this bit of "breaking news" 


Good Morning Japan |Hawkish ECB + US Retail Miss Fan Recession Fears - Equities Take It on the Chin

Japan

Hoya Corp manufactures electro-optics products such as mask blanks for semiconductors, photomasks for LCD panels, optical glasses, glass memory disks for HDDs, medical flexible endoscopes, eyeglasses, and contact lenses. The Company also provides information system architecture.

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Hoya Corp (7741 JP)

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives as $ACWI tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93. Remain...

Vermilion Research

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2023)

CELSYS has been working for a move to the Prime Market since August 2022 and with the recent rise in share price they could be able to satisfy all...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hoya (7741) | A Visionary Company with a Blurry Future

We like Hoya long-term, but see a lack of catalysts and an expensive valuation as working against the stock in the short-term

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Fed Hike, Powell Speech ? Equities Beyond as Optimism Abounds,from Spotify to GM

JAPAN WRAP. NKY Futs +0.6% Cash; USDJPY 130.11. Set for a decent day after the Beta-driven rally in the US. Still, it won't be all green on the...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Hawkish ECB + US Retail Miss Fan Recession Fears - Equities Take It on the Chin

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW TO KEEP...

Mark Chadwick

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