'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/034/original/2018-08-16_19-07-34.png?1534672507" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61034"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our '<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-most-overbought-most-oversold-the-relative-price-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:21149">Nifty 50</a>' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.<div class="content-highlight">MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.</div>SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/359" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1">Japan Post [6178 JP</a>]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.<div class="content-highlight">
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
</div>SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.<div class="content-highlight">
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
</div>TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/061/038/original/2018-08-19_19-33-03.png?1534674804" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="61038"></figure>

Source: Japan AnalyticsA GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in earnings.  However, the score has only declined by 31 basis points since last quarter showing a degree of 'stability' seen only in 2011 in recent years.  The aggregate Forecast/Revision score has also continued to decline and is now lower for the fourth straight month. As would be expected, this score is a reliable leading indicator for the Results Score and suggests further weakening in the rate of earnings growth in the months ahead.  Neither score is, as yet, suggesting a decline in earnings before the end of the fiscal year.YEN CORRELATION WEAKENING - This quarter's earnings' stability was surprising given the relative strength of the Yen compared to a year ago. In the past and even as recently as 2016, a 5 per cent year-on-year decline has resulted in negative Results Scores. The year-on-year change in now positive so any negative impact will dissipate over the next two quarters.MARKET FOLLOWS MOMENTUM LOWER - The All Market Composite peaked on 23rd January and has since fallen by 11% despite a continuation of the Bank of Japan's ETF purchasing programme. Weakening earnings momentum and the overvaluation of many of the leading stocks, as in our 'Nifty 50' portfolio, have been contributing factors. With prospects for a much weaker Yen limited by the current trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, and with global growth slowing, we expect both Results and Revision Scores to trend lower, but to end the fiscal year in positive territory. Historically, the market has not risen during periods when both the Results and Forecast/Revision Scores have been trending down.MARKET RECOMMENDATION - Within a global portfolio, we would market-weight Japanese equities with a bias towards domestic sectors and not hedge the currency exposure.SECTOR RESULTS SCORES -The good news is that only one sector, (Multi-Industry - 75% of which is Japan Post [6178 JP]) has a negative score - and its score is less negative than last quarter. Both the Media and Consumer Services sectors' scores turned positive and each increased by more than two points.  On the other hand, over half of our 29 sectors saw declining scores, although the number was lower than last quarter.  The top sectors in terms of quarter-on-quarter change were Energy, Consumer Services, Media, Information Technology and Other Commercial Products while the laggards were Non-Bank Finance, Chemicals, Construction, Machinery and Utilities. SECTOR REVISION SCORES - Five sectors have negative Forecast/Revision Scores with Utilities now joining Media, Multi-Industry, Autos and Banks from last quarter. The highest scores are in the Energy, Technology Hardware, Electrical Equipment, Retail and Information Technology sectors. Improvements of greater than one point were seen in Energy, Media and Machinery while Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, Chemicals, Utilities, Other Materials and Technology Hardware all lost more than one point. Overall eighteen sectors saw declines.REVISION V. RESULTS SCORES - The difference between the Results and Revision Scores is a good indicator of corporate expectations compared with the trailing-twelve-month reality. In some cases (e.g. Restaurants) the 'optimism' is due to a failure to revise forecasts in the light of weaker results. In others, such as Telecommunications, there is scope for upward revisions in the coming quarters.
THE OPTIMISTS
Restaurants • Other Materials • Electrical Equipment • Technology Hardware • Retail
THE PESSIMISTS
Banks • Autos • Telecommunications • Utilities • Media • Chemicals
SECTOR PERFORMANCE - Over the last three months, our Japan Market Composite declined by 5.8%. Only four sectors saw an increase in value led by Telecommunications, Energy, Commercial Services and Information Technology. The largest declines were in the Building Materials, Metals, Real Estate Construction and Machinery sectors. Nine sectors are now negative over one year led by Building Materials, Metals and Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco and only eight are up in double-digits led by Services and Information Technology. For the time being, Domestic Non-Manufacturing sectors 'rules the roost' and Domestic Cyclical sectors have taken over from Global Cyclicals in the 'doghouse'.'.
SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
Our most-preferred sectors are currently Energy, Healthcare, Telecommunications, Other Commercial Products and Information Technology.
Least-preferred sectors are Metals, Chemicals, Machinery, Autos, Construction, Real Estate, Building Materials, Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco and Utilities.
TOP 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The top five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Machine Tools &amp; Presses, PC &amp; Computer Peripherals, Oil &amp; Gas Refining &amp; Marketing, Telecom Distribution Services and Sporting &amp; Outdoor Goods. The top twenty larger Peer Groups have gained 16% over one year but have declined by 4% on average the last three months.BOTTOM 5 LARGER PEER GROUPS - The bottom five Peer Groups capitalised at over ¥1 trillion are Audio/Visual Content, LCD/LED Materials &amp; Equipment, Electrical Engineering, General Contractors and Real Estate - Leasing. The bottom twenty larger Peer Groups have lost 2% over one year and 9% over the last three months. Only Security Services and Tobacco have risen since May.

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

DOMESTIC  DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ -  The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter and all of these sectors saw declines in weight over the last three months.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most preferred sectors are currently Healthcare, Energy, Other Commercial Products, Utilities and Information Technology and least preferred sectors are Multi-Industry, Metals, Chemicals, Autos, Machinery, Banks and Consumer Services.MARKET OUTLOOK MIXED - With manufacturing sectors comprising 60% of the market and with many domestic sectors now fully-valued, it is hard to see the market making much headway over the rest of the summer.

DOMESTIC  DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ -  The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter and all of these sectors saw declines in weight over the last three months.SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS - Our most preferred sectors are currently Healthcare, Energy, Other Commercial Products, Utilities and Information Technology and least preferred sectors are Multi-Industry, Metals, Chemicals, Autos, Machinery, Banks and Consumer Services.MARKET OUTLOOK MIXED - With manufacturing sectors comprising 60% of the market and with many domestic sectors now fully-valued, it is hard to see the market making much headway over the rest of the summer.

Japan : Q2 Sector & Company Performance Review

THREE-MONTH % CHANGE IN SECTORS &amp; PEER GROUPS - This regular insight focuses on the percentage change in each sectors' weight in the market composite over the last three months and provides a quick snapshot of current market trends.  In this insight, we have added the top and bottom Peer Groups measured by their three-month basis point change in weight in the market composite.<hr>SECTORS<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/054/090/original/2018-06-03_11-45-50.png?1527993978" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="54090"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>DOMESTIC SECTORS OUT-PERFORM - Domestic sectors continue to out-perform. The only…

THREE-MONTH % CHANGE IN SECTORS &amp; PEER GROUPS - This regular insight focuses on the percentage change in each sectors' weight in the market composite over the last three months and provides a quick snapshot of current market trends.  In this insight, we have added the top and bottom Peer Groups measured by their three-month basis point change in weight in the market composite.SECTORSSource: Japan AnalyticsDOMESTIC SECTORS OUT-PERFORM - Domestic sectors continue to out-perform. The only…

Japan: Sectors/Peer Groups 3M🔺Too Early to Bottom-Fish Cyclicals •Time to Trim Personal Products

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

15 Japanese names had 2 or more upgrades in November. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/751" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1">Fast Retailing Co Ltd (9983 JP)</a> is the largest name by mkt-cap to make the list and it had 3 upgrades. Other large-cap names to make the screen were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16696" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16696:1">Daikin Industries Ltd (6367 JP)</a> with 2 upgrades, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/753" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1">Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)</a> with 2 upgrades and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5718" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1">Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP)</a> also with 2 upgrades.<h2>Screen Results (2 or more Recommendations in the last month)</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/039/357/original/1.png?1511892346" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="39357"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/039/359/original/3.png?1511892644" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="39359"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:200:1">Hokuriku Electric Power Co (9505 JP)</a> is the only…

15 Japanese names had 2 or more upgrades in November. Fast Retailing Co Ltd (9983 JP) is the largest name by mkt-cap to make the list and it had 3 upgrades. Other large-cap names to make the screen were Daikin Industries Ltd (6367 JP) with 2 upgrades, Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) with 2 upgrades and Shiseido Co Ltd (4911 JP) also with 2 upgrades.Screen Results (2 or more Recommendations in the last month)Source: Custom ProductsSource: Custom ProductsHokuriku Electric Power Co (9505 JP) is the only…

Most Popular / Unpopular Japanese Names in November...

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Technical Analysis

China Unicom Hong Kong / Technical Analysis

Long-Term Allocation (Strategic view) in terms of Relative Value vs MXAP • NIKKEI/MXAP: Long-term outperformance still expected. • ASX/MXAP: Outperformance expected holding above long-term support (from 2003). • TWSE/MXAP: Neutral at the moment, watching closely a key level (2.22) to surpass to confirm TWSE long-term outperformance vs MXAP. • KOSPI/MXAP: Long-term outperformance in progress/still expected. • HSI/MXAP: Long-term outperformance in progress/still expected. • HSCEI/MXAP: Long-term…

Long-Term Allocation (Strategic view) in terms of Relative Value vs MXAP • NIKKEI/MXAP: Long-term outperformance still expected. • ASX/MXAP: Outperformance expected holding above long-term support (from 2003). • TWSE/MXAP: Neutral at the moment, watching closely a key level (2.22) to surpass to confirm TWSE long-term outperformance vs MXAP.  • KOSPI/MXAP: Long-term outperformance in progress/still expected. • HSI/MXAP: Long-term outperformance in progress/still expected. • HSCEI/MXAP: Long-term…

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 25 Oct 2017

Japan

Hoya Corp manufactures electro-optics products such as mask blanks for semiconductors, photomasks for LCD panels, optical glasses, glass memory disks for HDDs, medical flexible endoscopes, eyeglasses, and contact lenses. The Company also provides information system architecture.

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Hoya Corp (7741 JP)

Japan: Results & Revision Scores Summer 2018 Update - Market Composite, Sectors & Peer Groups

A GOOD QUARTER - The Composite Results Score has now declined for seven months in a row and is implying a slowing of the upward momentum in...

Campbell Gunn

Japan : Q2 Sector & Company Performance Review

DOMESTIC DEFENSIVE SECTORS ▲ GLOBAL CYCLICAL SECTORS ▼ - The Q1 trend shift away from global cyclical sectors accelerated in the second quarter...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Sectors/Peer Groups 3M🔺Too Early to Bottom-Fish Cyclicals •Time to Trim Personal Products

THREE-MONTH % CHANGE IN SECTORS & PEER GROUPS - This regular insight focuses on the percentage change in each sectors' weight in the market...

Campbell Gunn

Most Popular / Unpopular Japanese Names in November...

15 Japanese names had 2 or more upgrades in November. Fast Retailing Co Ltd (9983 JP) is the largest name by mkt-cap to make the list and it had 3...

Custom Products Group

BBSP Equity Asia Weekly Research 25 Oct 2017

Long-Term Allocation (Strategic view) in terms of Relative Value vs MXAP• NIKKEI/MXAP: Long-term outperformance still expected.• ASX/MXAP:...

BBSP Asia

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