Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<ul>
<li>COP27, the 27th annual United Nations international conference on climate change, starts on 6 November and runs through 18 November – in the Egyptian coastal city of Sharm el-Sheikh.</li>
<li>Whereas climate mitigation and clean energy were the main focus of prior conferences, climate adaptation and sustainable agriculture and food are top priorities for the COP26 Presidency.</li>
<li>Therefore, agriculture and food stocks are poised to be the most impacted on a relative basis by COP27 proceedings and outcomes. This Insight considers the potential "winners and losers."</li>
</ul>


COP27, the 27th annual United Nations international conference on climate change, starts on 6 November and runs through 18 November – in the Egyptian coastal city of Sharm el-Sheikh.
Whereas climate mitigation and clean energy were the main focus of prior conferences, climate adaptation and sustainable agriculture and food are top priorities for the COP26 Presidency.
Therefore, agriculture and food stocks are poised to be the most impacted on a relative basis by COP27 proceedings and outcomes. This Insight considers the potential "winners and losers."


COP27: Agriculture and Food Stocks Likely to Be Most Affected by Conference Talks

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Following panic selling that we have outlined over the past month, we finally saw panic buying last Friday in the form of 92% upside volume on the NYSE.</li>
<li>There is hope that this panic buying could signal a major bottom, but we still need to see more confirmation before declaring that the low is in.</li>
<li>We are watching the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the steep RS uptrends on Utilities (XLU) and Staples (XLP) for more confirmation that a major low is in place. Details below.</li>
</ul>


Following panic selling that we have outlined over the past month, we finally saw panic buying last Friday in the form of 92% upside volume on the NYSE.
There is hope that this panic buying could signal a major bottom, but we still need to see more confirmation before declaring that the low is in.
We are watching the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the steep RS uptrends on Utilities (XLU) and Staples (XLP) for more confirmation that a major low is in place. Details below.


Panic Buying Achieved, Waiting for More Confirmation of a Bottom;Buying Staples & Auto Dealers/Parts

<ul>
<li>We are getting the test of the lows we have been calling for, following some indiscriminate selling late last week which produced back-to-back 80%+ downside volume days on the NYSE.</li>
<li>There can certainly be more 80%-90%+ downside days that take the indexes to new lows.</li>
<li>We need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside day on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is in place</li>
</ul>


We are getting the test of the lows we have been calling for, following some indiscriminate selling late last week which produced back-to-back 80%+ downside volume days on the NYSE.
There can certainly be more 80%-90%+ downside days that take the indexes to new lows.
We need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside day on the NYSE in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is in place


Panic Selling Achieved, Now Waiting for Panic Buying; Major Indexes At/Near Support

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a> is two businesses - a US pork processor and a Chinese one - and both businesses are suffering lower margins than they'd like.</li>
<li>But they are doing better than and are cheaper than peers. And still the stock falls. Today, the stock price hit a 6-year low on dramatic underperformance of peers.</li>
<li>The question is what the proper discount would be for people who question its governance credentials. It's a really big discount now.</li>
</ul>



WH Group (288 HK) is two businesses - a US pork processor and a Chinese one - and both businesses are suffering lower margins than they'd like.
But they are doing better than and are cheaper than peers. And still the stock falls. Today, the stock price hit a 6-year low on dramatic underperformance of peers.
The question is what the proper discount would be for people who question its governance credentials. It's a really big discount now.


WH Group (288 HK) - Now Cheapest in Yonks Outright and Vs Peers

The shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a> to be returned to shareholders after the Buyback Offer have been returned to shareholders as of this morning. Some appeared to have sold yesterday, some today, and some may not "get notice" of the return until tonight, which means they would sell tomorrow or later. Now we look ahead. Based on a pure price-vs-peers basis, the price today is about 3% below where it was compared to a mix of Chinese and global peers as of the day before the announcement. However, that does not include the 15% accretion to EPS from the buyback. That puts the stock a fair bit cheaper than its peer basket since the announcement 3+ months ago. And it has ALWAYS traded cheap on governance concerns (and one reason why showed up last month in a public spat between the spurned first son and the chairman, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wh-group-stock-plummets-as-ousted-son-drags-pigs-into-the-mud" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:56282" rel="noopener">WH Group - Stock Plummets as Ousted Son Drags Pigs Into The Mud</a>. The question investors should ask themselves is.... if the family were ousted, would that be good for the share price? If the answer is yes, then the exposure here probably has some convexity given the shares trade at a multi-year low to Peers on an accretion-adjusted basis.

The shares of WH Group (288 HK) to be returned to shareholders after the Buyback Offer have been returned to shareholders as of this morning. Some appeared to have sold yesterday, some today, and some may not "get notice" of the return until tonight, which means they would sell tomorrow or later. Now we look ahead. Based on a pure price-vs-peers basis, the price today is about 3% below where it was compared to a mix of Chinese and global peers as of the day before the announcement. However, that does not include the 15% accretion to EPS from the buyback. That puts the stock a fair bit cheaper than its peer basket since the announcement 3+ months ago. And it has ALWAYS traded cheap on governance concerns (and one reason why showed up last month in a public spat between the spurned first son and the chairman, discussed in WH Group - Stock Plummets as Ousted Son Drags Pigs Into The Mud. The question investors should ask themselves is.... if the family were ousted, would that be good for the share price? If the answer is yes, then the exposure here probably has some convexity given the shares trade at a multi-year low to Peers on an accretion-adjusted basis.

United States

Hormel Foods Corporation manufactures and markets consumer-branded meat and food products.  The Company processes meat and poultry products and produces a variety of prepared foods.  Hormel markets its products around the world under a variety of branded names.

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Hormel Foods (HRL US)

COP27: Agriculture and Food Stocks Likely to Be Most Affected by Conference Talks

COP27 starts next week, and sustainable agriculture/food is at the top of the agenda. That could mean agriculture stocks are the most impacted by...

Kyle Rudden

Panic Buying Achieved, Waiting for More Confirmation of a Bottom;Buying Staples & Auto Dealers/Parts

We finally saw panic buying last Friday in the form of 92% upside volume on the NYSE. There is hope that this panic buying could signal that a...

Vermilion Research

Panic Selling Achieved, Now Waiting for Panic Buying; Major Indexes At/Near Support

Now that we have seen indiscriminate panic selling, we are now looking for panic buying in order to have confidence that a major market bottom is...

Vermilion Research

WH Group (288 HK) - Now Cheapest in Yonks Outright and Vs Peers

WH Group has always been cheap to its peer group. Now it is worse. Pork prices are underperforming feed prices, lowering margins worldwide. WH has...

Travis Lundy

WH Group Post-Tender Outlook

Buyback Offer shares are returned. Now we look forward. Of course, we did before in assuming participation rates. The stock is cheap on accretion...

Travis Lundy

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