ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> outlining its online storefront strategy and on MSCI Index inclusions, which impacts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (GRAB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>. </li>
<li>We also look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1" rel="noopener">Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)</a> post results plus OVO's multi-finance move, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a>'s move into warehousing with Logos.</li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
The past week saw insights on Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) outlining its online storefront strategy and on MSCI Index inclusions, which impacts Grab (GRAB US) and Sea Ltd (SE US). 
We also look at Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ) post results plus OVO's multi-finance move, and Astra International's move into warehousing with Logos.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Bukalapak's Storefront, Grab's MSCI Boost, and Unilever Indo

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Sunac China Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Sunac is looking to raise around US$500m via a top-up placement.</li>
<li>The company last raised cash in Nov 21 when it undertook a top-up placement worth US$500m and raised another US$270m via  selldown in Sunac Services.</li>
<li>That deal didn’t end up doing well and this deal as well won’t move the needle much, in terms of bringing down debt.</li>
</ul>


Sunac is looking to raise around US$500m via a top-up placement.
The company last raised cash in Nov 21 when it undertook a top-up placement worth US$500m and raised another US$270m via  selldown in Sunac Services.
That deal didn’t end up doing well and this deal as well won’t move the needle much, in terms of bringing down debt.


Sunac China Placement - Previous Deal Didn’t Do Much, This Won’t Move the Needle Either

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> has <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/JMH.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=693661" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it intends to increase the amount of its share buyback programme announced on 30th September 2021 by US$250mn to US$500mn.</li>
<li>JMH has already acquired close to US$250mn of shares under the initial buyback. All shares repurchases will be canceled.</li>
<li>Separately, the appraisal rights proceedings for dissenting shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a> is now underway in the Supreme Court of Bermuda.</li>
</ul>



Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) has announced it intends to increase the amount of its share buyback programme announced on 30th September 2021 by US$250mn to US$500mn.
JMH has already acquired close to US$250mn of shares under the initial buyback. All shares repurchases will be canceled.
Separately, the appraisal rights proceedings for dissenting shareholders of Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP) is now underway in the Supreme Court of Bermuda.


Matheson Doubles Buybacks As Strategic Dissentient Shareholders Make Their Case

Equity Bottom-Up

Jardine Matheson Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<div>
<p>On the 6th September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/HKLH0906.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=682657" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a US$500mn share buyback program, which will run until 31st December 2022. Based on the average daily volume over the last year of US$9-10mn, this buyback is roughly equivalent to ~15% of daily volume through to 2022 year-end. Pretty punchy.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>In <em><a href="https://skr.ma/aFS5q" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land's (HKL SP) Big Buyback</a></em>, I said the Jardine's group evidently believes it makes good business sense to buy back its own shares in place of deploying capital into HKL's investment and development property portfolio.</p>
<p>Now it's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>'s turn to buy back its own shares. </p>
<p>Yesterday the conglomerate <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/JMH.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=685150" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a US$250mn buyback which will run through to 30 June next year.</p>
<p>As with HKL, the holding of treasury shares is not permitted in JMH's constitution, therefore any shares repurchased will be cancelled.</p>
<p>I see JMH's discount to NAV at ~30%, around its lowest level since taking <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a> private.</p>
<p>We now have some indication as to what the Keswick family considers a cheap entry-level. </p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>
<div></div>
<div>
<p></p>
</div>


On the 6th September, Hongkong Land (HKL SP) announced a US$500mn share buyback program, which will run until 31st December 2022. Based on the average daily volume over the last year of US$9-10mn, this buyback is roughly equivalent to ~15% of daily volume through to 2022 year-end. Pretty punchy.


In Hongkong Land's (HKL SP) Big Buyback, I said the Jardine's group evidently believes it makes good business sense to buy back its own shares in place of deploying capital into HKL's investment and development property portfolio.
Now it's Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)'s turn to buy back its own shares. 
Yesterday the conglomerate announced a US$250mn buyback which will run through to 30 June next year.
As with HKL, the holding of treasury shares is not permitted in JMH's constitution, therefore any shares repurchased will be cancelled.
I see JMH's discount to NAV at ~30%, around its lowest level since taking Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP) private.
We now have some indication as to what the Keswick family considers a cheap entry-level. 
More below the fold.






Jardine Matheson's (JM SP) Turn To Buy Back Shares

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>We attended an analyst call with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ),</a> which revealed more colour behind the company's results, as well as further pointers to its longer-term strategy, especially in relation to its digital strategy both for its existing as well as new business direction.</p>
</div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> registered a strong performance in 1H2021, driven by the recovering economy, government stimulus, and higher commodity prices. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> had a strong first half of the year with Komatsu sales growth of +60% YoY to 1,360 with additional strong growth in parts and service revenues</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> recently released its car sales numbers for August, which revealed a rapid recovery in numbers after a dip in July due to Emergency PPKM measures.</p>
<p>We would expect continuing strong momentum behind car sales given the extension of the cut in luxury tax due to the recent wave of COVID-19 measures until December.</p>
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<p>In the 2W space, Astra Honda saw around an -8% decline in motorcycle sales in July but continues to expect towards the end of the year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> continues to work on the digitalization of all its various businesses and management identifies distinct themes in its digitalisation efforts both internally and externally.</p>
<p>The company is also looking at developing its EV (electric vehicle) capabilities and will develop this EV strategy over the next 12-18 months building the local portion of the value chain.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> is also very focused on its ESG efforts across its very broad array of businesses both through reporting and sustainability efforts.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> continues to be one of our top recovery picks, with recent car sales numbers suggesting a strong recovery is looming, with a fair tailwind from luxury tax omission. It should also continue to benefit from higher commodity prices through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-tractors-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:698:1" rel="noopener">United Tractors (UNTR IJ)</a> and we see the potential for further investments to come in the new economy.</p>


We attended an analyst call with Astra International (ASII IJ), which revealed more colour behind the company's results, as well as further pointers to its longer-term strategy, especially in relation to its digital strategy both for its existing as well as new business direction.

Astra International (ASII IJ) registered a strong performance in 1H2021, driven by the recovering economy, government stimulus, and higher commodity prices. 
United Tractors (UNTR IJ) had a strong first half of the year with Komatsu sales growth of +60% YoY to 1,360 with additional strong growth in parts and service revenues
Astra International (ASII IJ) recently released its car sales numbers for August, which revealed a rapid recovery in numbers after a dip in July due to Emergency PPKM measures.
We would expect continuing strong momentum behind car sales given the extension of the cut in luxury tax due to the recent wave of COVID-19 measures until December.



In the 2W space, Astra Honda saw around an -8% decline in motorcycle sales in July but continues to expect towards the end of the year.
Astra International (ASII IJ) continues to work on the digitalization of all its various businesses and management identifies distinct themes in its digitalisation efforts both internally and externally.
The company is also looking at developing its EV (electric vehicle) capabilities and will develop this EV strategy over the next 12-18 months building the local portion of the value chain.
Astra International (ASII IJ) is also very focused on its ESG efforts across its very broad array of businesses both through reporting and sustainability efforts.
Astra International (ASII IJ) continues to be one of our top recovery picks, with recent car sales numbers suggesting a strong recovery is looming, with a fair tailwind from luxury tax omission. It should also continue to benefit from higher commodity prices through United Tractors (UNTR IJ) and we see the potential for further investments to come in the new economy.

Astra International (ASII IJ) - Future Clarity Through Digital Means

Hong Kong

Hongkong Land is a major listed property investment, management and development group. 

The Group owns and manages more than 850,000 sq. m. of prime office and luxury retail property in key Asian cities, principally in Hong Kong, Singapore, Beijing and Jakarta.  The Group also has a number of high quality residential, commercial, and mixed-use projects under development in cities across Greater China and Southeast Asia.  In Singapore, its subsidiary, MCL Land, is a well-established residential developer.  

Hongkong Land Holdings Limited is incorporated in Bermuda and has a standard listing on the London Stock Exchange, with secondary listings in Bermuda and Singapore.  The Group’s assets and investments are managed from Hong Kong by Hongkong Land Limited.  Hongkong Land is a member of the Jardine Matheson Group.

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Hongkong Land (HKL SP)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Bukalapak's Storefront, Grab's MSCI Boost, and Unilever Indo

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Sunac China Placement - Previous Deal Didn’t Do Much, This Won’t Move the Needle Either

Sunac is looking to raise around US$500m via a top-up placement. In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM Framework.

Sumeet Singh

Matheson Doubles Buybacks As Strategic Dissentient Shareholders Make Their Case

Matheson has announced it intends to increase the amount of its share buyback programme by US$250mn to US$500mn. Court proceedings for Strategic...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson's (JM SP) Turn To Buy Back Shares

The Keswick's believe at current levels, there is better value to be had buying its own shares rather than investing elsewhere. As with HKL, JMH is...

David Blennerhassett

Astra International (ASII IJ) - Future Clarity Through Digital Means

Astra International continues to be one of our top Indonesia recovery picks, with recent car sales numbers suggesting a strong recovery is looming...

Angus Mackintosh

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