Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The MAS is not at all happy with the frequent digital banking services outages at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1" rel="noopener">DBS (DBS SP)</a>. There will be fines and higher required capital.  </li>
<li>The outlook for the home market lending is already poor, with negative loan growth in recent months. Probes of money laundering will likely make lending even more sparse.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-overseas-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:113:1" rel="noopener">UOB (UOB SP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN)</a> results are all illustrative of risks facing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22:1" rel="noopener">DBS (DBS SP)</a> before results come out, especially credit costs.</li>
</ul>


The MAS is not at all happy with the frequent digital banking services outages at DBS (DBS SP). There will be fines and higher required capital.  
The outlook for the home market lending is already poor, with negative loan growth in recent months. Probes of money laundering will likely make lending even more sparse.

UOB (UOB SP) , Standard Chartered (STAN LN) , HSBC Holdings (HSBA LN) results are all illustrative of risks facing DBS (DBS SP) before results come out, especially credit costs.


DBS - Fines, Negative Loan Growth, Greater China CRE Risks, UOB & STAN & HSBC Illustrative

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting opportunities within India's SENSEX, global energy and materials sectors, and Asian banks.

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting opportunities within India's SENSEX, global energy and materials sectors, and Asian banks.

Asia's Leading Online Property Group, PropertyGuru

Bjorn Sprengers

Asia's Leading Online Property Group

PropertyGuru

PropertyGuru Pte Ltd owns and operates a real estate property information website. The Company offers facilities to search for condominiums, apartments, Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats, serviced apartments, houses, and commercial properties to rent and buy in Singapore.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In Part 2 of our 4 part series we address the outlook for the rental market for private residential:<ul><li>The URA’s rental price index for private homes fell 10.6 percent between Q3 2013 and Q3 2016. Analysts are forecasting a significant drop in rents of up to 15 percent this year.</li><li>The volume of foreign manpower is still increasing but at a slower pace. The slowdown in the global economy and the volatility in some industries has resulted in numerous layoffs and renters tightening their belts.</li><li>Renters are expected to focus their attention on the OCR for good rental deals, as prices there fell the most by 6.7 percent in 2016.</li><li> Landlords are expected to provide more incentives to attract tenants, such as flexible lease terms and furnishings to prevent their units from being left vacant over long periods of time</li></ul>

In Part 2 of our 4 part series we address the outlook for the rental market for private residential:The URA’s rental price index for private homes fell 10.6 percent between Q3 2013 and Q3 2016. Analysts are forecasting a significant drop in rents of up to 15 percent this year.The volume of foreign manpower is still increasing but at a slower pace. The slowdown in the global economy and the volatility in some industries has resulted in numerous layoffs and renters tightening their belts.Renters are expected to focus their attention on the OCR for good rental deals, as prices there fell the most by 6.7 percent in 2016. Landlords are expected to provide more incentives to attract tenants, such as flexible lease terms and furnishings to prevent their units from being left vacant over long periods of time

Singapore Residential - Property Market Outlook - Green Shoots Emerging (Part 2 of 4)

In Part 1 of our 4 part series we address the outlook for the sales market for private residential:<ul><li>Private home prices in the Outside Central Region (OCR) are expected to drop by about 2.5 percent in 2017, down from 3.1 percent in 2016 and 3.7 percent in the year before.</li><li>Home buyer affordability will be affected by the ongoing cooling measures, particularly the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) and Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR).</li><li>In a bid to prevent an oversupply situation in the market, fewer government land sales sites will be released. This will cut the housing supply by a few thousand units in the next two years.</li><li>New private home sales are expected to reach about 8,000 units in 2017. Pent-up demand in the market is likely to contribute to better take-up rates at projects with good location and pricing attributes. </li></ul>

In Part 1 of our 4 part series we address the outlook for the sales market for private residential:Private home prices in the Outside Central Region (OCR) are expected to drop by about 2.5 percent in 2017, down from 3.1 percent in 2016 and 3.7 percent in the year before.Home buyer affordability will be affected by the ongoing cooling measures, particularly the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) and Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR).In a bid to prevent an oversupply situation in the market, fewer government land sales sites will be released. This will cut the housing supply by a few thousand units in the next two years.New private home sales are expected to reach about 8,000 units in 2017. Pent-up demand in the market is likely to contribute to better take-up rates at projects with good location and pricing attributes.   

Singapore Residential - Property Market Outlook - Green Shoots Emerging (Part 1 of 4)

We doubt there are many people who believe that China’s banks have especially safe corporate exposure. Few believe the low 1.8% NPL ratio that China’s banks report. So when NPLs and credit costs ratchet higher, it will hurt, but will not be totally unexpected. Singapore is the opposite extreme, and this is what is of real interest: where there is a giant gap between perception and reality. We turn to Google as a proxy on what the world believes.We note the number of results for the search “China…

We doubt there are many people who believe that China’s banks have especially safe corporate exposure. Few believe the low 1.8% NPL ratio that China’s banks report. So when NPLs and credit costs ratchet higher, it will hurt, but will not be totally unexpected. Singapore is the opposite extreme, and this is what is of real interest: where there is a giant gap between perception and reality. We turn to Google as a proxy on what the world believes.We note the number of results for the search “China…

Singapore Banks: A Far Greater Perception-Reality Gap Compared with China Banks

Singapore

Hong Leong Finance Limited provides depository and financing services to its clients.  The Company's services include hire purchase, leasing, factoring, mortgages, and other secured loans in the commercial, industrial, and consumer sectors.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hong Leong Finance (HLF SP)

DBS - Fines, Negative Loan Growth, Greater China CRE Risks, UOB & STAN & HSBC Illustrative

DBS faces fines and higher capital requirements, due to digital banking services outages. This is new. It comes at time where domestic loan growth...

Daniel Tabbush

EM Strategy: Remain Overweight India

In this report we provide a synopsis of EM markets. We also scour the EM universe for attractive and actionable opportunities, highlighting...

Vermilion Research

Singapore Residential - Property Market Outlook - Green Shoots Emerging (Part 2 of 4)

In Part 2 of our 4 part series we address the outlook for the rental market for private residential: The URA’s rental price index for private homes...

PropertyGuru

Singapore Residential - Property Market Outlook - Green Shoots Emerging (Part 1 of 4)

In Part 1 of our 4 part series we address the outlook for the sales market for private residential: Private home prices in the Outside Central...

PropertyGuru

Singapore Banks: A Far Greater Perception-Reality Gap Compared with China Banks

We doubt there are many people who believe that China’s banks have especially safe corporate exposure. Few believe the low 1.8% NPL ratio that...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)