Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Despite a much more mixed market environment, our weight-of-the-evidence approach continues to support a constructive intermediate-term outlook. The bottom line: there is little evidence that suggests a pullback would be anything more than a buying opportunity.</p>

Despite a much more mixed market environment, our weight-of-the-evidence approach continues to support a constructive intermediate-term outlook. The bottom line: there is little evidence that suggests a pullback would be anything more than a buying opportunity.

Defensives Are Worth A Look; Hang Seng, Shanghai Comp, Nikkei 225, STOXX 50 Support Levels Holding

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

FTSE China A50 Index / Technical Analysis

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftse-china-a50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22905:1" rel="noopener">FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX)</a> kissed the lower pattern long support zone at 16,500 amid maturing bull divergence that sets the stage for a counter trend risk to the underside of broken trendline that will act as the next big upside target and short zone.</p><p>A share exhibit the higher conviction long set up with HK still vulnerble to any SPX pullback (dip and rally the bias into late April).</p><p>Hong Kong - Conviction rests with buying a swing lower near HSI 27,500 and HSCEI 10,500-600 or a breakout now as we challenge the HSI 29,200 pivot barrier with 29,500 the next hurdle.</p>

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX) kissed the lower pattern long support zone at 16,500 amid maturing bull divergence that sets the stage for a counter trend risk to the underside of broken trendline that will act as the next big upside target and short zone.A share exhibit the higher conviction long set up with HK still vulnerble to any SPX pullback (dip and rally the bias into late April).Hong Kong - Conviction rests with buying a swing lower near HSI 27,500 and HSCEI 10,500-600 or a breakout now as we challenge the HSI 29,200 pivot barrier with 29,500 the next hurdle.

A50 Long Signal and Hurdles to Backswing Target

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>The Ping An A-shares <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-china" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance Group Co Of China (601318 CH)</a> are trading at parity versus the H-shares <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>. This continues the cycle of premiums and discounts going back to 2015.</p><p>The last time the A-shares traded at parity to the H-shares was in July last year. Since then, the premium of A-shares to H-shares touched a high of over 16% before moving lower to trade at parity again.</p><p>With the Ping An A-shares trading at parity versus the H-shares, the risk/reward is attractive to setting up a premium expansion trade.</p><p>In this Insight, we look at the historical premium for Ping An and compare it to the premium on the AH index and other large caps, and look at some catalysts that could lead to an expansion of the premium.</p>

The Ping An A-shares Ping An Insurance Group Co Of China (601318 CH) are trading at parity versus the H-shares Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK). This continues the cycle of premiums and discounts going back to 2015.The last time the A-shares traded at parity to the H-shares was in July last year. Since then, the premium of A-shares to H-shares touched a high of over 16% before moving lower to trade at parity again.With the Ping An A-shares trading at parity versus the H-shares, the risk/reward is attractive to setting up a premium expansion trade.In this Insight, we look at the historical premium for Ping An and compare it to the premium on the AH index and other large caps, and look at some catalysts that could lead to an expansion of the premium.

Ping An A/H Premium: Nearing a Discount; Set Up for Expansion

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Technical Analysis

<div>Base case remains to buy risk on dips in our core long group in Asia and will then measure new highs toward rising wedge resistance targets as exhaustive patterns mature and set up an excellent short after mid April.</div><div></div><div>Korea displays the best near term bull breakout potential.</div><div></div><div>Taiwan shows better energy off of trendline support but at the topside of the wedge will shift to a macro short. NDX rally stall will play into Taiwan in late April.</div><div></div><div>India needs ignition off of critical wedge support to gain bull traction. Bank index pivot.</div><div></div><div>Japan's timid recovery amid weaker undercurrents is in our crosshairs as a macro short set up.</div><div></div><div>HK is a tactical fade/short but on the next low attempt will shift into the laggard bull camp.</div>

Base case remains to buy risk on dips in our core long group in Asia and will then measure new highs toward rising wedge resistance targets as exhaustive patterns mature and set up an excellent short after mid April.Korea displays the best near term bull breakout potential.Taiwan shows better energy off of trendline support but at the topside of the wedge will shift to a macro short. NDX rally stall will play into Taiwan in late April.India needs ignition off of critical wedge support to gain bull traction. Bank index pivot.Japan's timid recovery amid weaker undercurrents is in our crosshairs as a macro short set up.HK is a tactical fade/short but on the next low attempt will shift into the laggard bull camp.

<p>Hong Kong remains a weak link within Asia after the impulsive break below trendline support. The bigger concern stems from the A50 break below trendline that will haunt risk in Asia in Q2 after a recovery rise in April to test the underside of that trendline level.</p><p>We must also factor in the bull SPX cycle toward 4,050 into mid April.</p><p>Tactical short strength with intermediate lows taking shape for Hong Kong  near HSI 27,000.</p><p>RSI bull wedge formation are maturing to imply HK will become a rotation long bet once we see a rally in Korea get lift off at the expense of Japan.</p>

Hong Kong remains a weak link within Asia after the impulsive break below trendline support. The bigger concern stems from the A50 break below trendline that will haunt risk in Asia in Q2 after a recovery rise in April to test the underside of that trendline level.We must also factor in the bull SPX cycle toward 4,050 into mid April.Tactical short strength with intermediate lows taking shape for Hong Kong  near HSI 27,000.RSI bull wedge formation are maturing to imply HK will become a rotation long bet once we see a rally in Korea get lift off at the expense of Japan.

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Defensives Are Worth A Look; Hang Seng, Shanghai Comp, Nikkei 225, STOXX 50 Support Levels Holding

A review of major global indexes reveals an absence of major breakdowns. We highlight opportunities within defensive Sectors (Real Estate, Consumer...

Vermilion Research

A50 Long Signal and Hurdles to Backswing Target

FTSE China A50 Index (XIN9I INDEX) kissed the lower pattern long support zone at 16,500 amid maturing bull divergence that sets the stage for a...

Thomas Schroeder

Ping An A/H Premium: Nearing a Discount; Set Up for Expansion

With the Ping An Insurance A-shares trading at parity to the H-shares, the risk/reward favours an AH Premium expansion trade. Watch for change in H...

Brian Freitas

Asia Top Long/Short Bets for April

Base case remains to buy risk on dips in our core long group in Asia. Measure new highs near rising wedge targets as exhaustive patterns mature and...

Thomas Schroeder

HK Digging for a Fresh Low

Hong Kong remains a weak link within Asia after the impulsive break below trendline support. Bigger concern stems from the A50 trendline break that...

Thomas Schroeder