Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are no changes to the index names, but FAF and capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 4.5% and one-way flow of HK$3,287m.</li>
<li>An increase in the FAF from 3% to 40% will result in passive inflows of HK$1.18bn for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> - that is over 5 days of ADV.</li>
<li>There are large shorts on some of the stocks that will have passive outflows and some of these positions could be covered on implementation day.</li>
</ul>


There are no changes to the index names, but FAF and capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 4.5% and one-way flow of HK$3,287m.
An increase in the FAF from 3% to 40% will result in passive inflows of HK$1.18bn for SenseTime Group (20 HK) - that is over 5 days of ADV.
There are large shorts on some of the stocks that will have passive outflows and some of these positions could be covered on implementation day.


Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance: No Changes BUT Big Turnover

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a>'s Free-Float Adjustment Factor (FAF) increases from 3% to 40% following lock-up expiry and the stock will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-pacific-insurance-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6177:1" rel="noopener">China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>. </li>
<li>Using prices from the close on 19 August, estimated one-way turnover is 3.82% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$2,751m at the close on 2 September.</li>
<li>Increase in the FAF on a couple of stocks saves them from index deletion in September but is probably not enough to save them from index deletion in December.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK)'s Free-Float Adjustment Factor (FAF) increases from 3% to 40% following lock-up expiry and the stock will replace China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) in the HSCEI INDEX. 
Using prices from the close on 19 August, estimated one-way turnover is 3.82% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$2,751m at the close on 2 September.
Increase in the FAF on a couple of stocks saves them from index deletion in September but is probably not enough to save them from index deletion in December.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: SenseTime (20 HK) Added As FAF Increases Dramatically

<ul>
<li>The inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> takes us to 73 index constituents.</li>
<li>Changes to the stocks, number of shares, float and capping result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.09% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$10,562m.</li>
<li>There are large shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a> and there could be some short covering from now to implementation.</li>
</ul>


The inclusion of China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK), Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) and Baidu (9888 HK) takes us to 73 index constituents.
Changes to the stocks, number of shares, float and capping result in an estimated one-way turnover of 5.09% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$10,562m.
There are large shorts on Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) and there could be some short covering from now to implementation.


HSI Index Rebalance: Another Small Step Towards 80 Members, But BIG Impact

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The market pivoted late last week from there will be no PBOC rates cut to there being much more Monetary Policy support needed.</li><li>The pivot was the sharp slowdown in Aggregate Financing, Industrial Production, Real estate, and Retail Sales. All it took was a 10-bps cut in one-year MLF.</li><li>Meanwhile, Hong Kong saw HIBOR continue to rise even with currency strength.</li></ul>

The market pivoted late last week from there will be no PBOC rates cut to there being much more Monetary Policy support needed.The pivot was the sharp slowdown in Aggregate Financing, Industrial Production, Real estate, and Retail Sales. All it took was a 10-bps cut in one-year MLF.Meanwhile, Hong Kong saw HIBOR continue to rise even with currency strength.

HSI Index, HSITECH Index, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and China Unicom

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>'s reported sale of its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> stake led to a selloff on Meituan and on other companies that Tencent has invested in.</li>
<li>There are 10 listed companies where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>'s holding is over US$1bn. Some stakes are more likely to be sold than others. </li>
<li>A complete stake sale will benefit some companies more than others since they are part of a wider array of indices and that will bring in passive flow.</li>
</ul>



Tencent (700 HK)'s reported sale of its Meituan (3690 HK) stake led to a selloff on Meituan and on other companies that Tencent has invested in.
There are 10 listed companies where Tencent (700 HK)'s holding is over US$1bn. Some stakes are more likely to be sold than others. 
A complete stake sale will benefit some companies more than others since they are part of a wider array of indices and that will bring in passive flow.


Tencent's Potential Sale of Meituan Stake - Read Across to Other Stocks & Index Implications

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Hang Seng TECH Index Rebalance: No Changes BUT Big Turnover

There are no add/deletes for the HSTECH, but FAF and capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 4.5% and one-way flow of HK$3,287m....

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance: SenseTime (20 HK) Added As FAF Increases Dramatically

SenseTime's FAF increases from 3% to 40% & the stock will replace CPIC in the HSCEI. Passive trackers will need to buy 7 days of ADV on SenseTime...

Brian Freitas

HSI Index Rebalance: Another Small Step Towards 80 Members, But BIG Impact

There are 4 adds to the index in September - China Shenhua, Chow Tai Fook, Baidu & Hansoh Pharma. There will be big impact on some of the stocks...

Brian Freitas

HSI Index, HSITECH Index, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and China Unicom

The market pivoted late last week from there will be no PBOC rates cut to there being much more Monetary Policy support needed.

Untying The Gordian Knot

Tencent's Potential Sale of Meituan Stake - Read Across to Other Stocks & Index Implications

A Reuters report that Tencent intended to sell its stake in Meituan led to a selloff across Tencent's investee companies. The impact of passive...

Brian Freitas