Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's loan prime rates have held steady for a fifth month, with 1Y and 5Y benchmarks at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively.</li>
<li>We expect to see a 15bp cut to the 5Y LPR as early as Feb. 20, in view of extremely weak domestic demand.</li>
<li>Even that may not be enough. Infrastructure spending will have to carry the load, fueled by a surge in local government bond issuance.</li>
</ul>


China's loan prime rates have held steady for a fifth month, with 1Y and 5Y benchmarks at 3.65% and 4.30%, respectively.
We expect to see a 15bp cut to the 5Y LPR as early as Feb. 20, in view of extremely weak domestic demand.
Even that may not be enough. Infrastructure spending will have to carry the load, fueled by a surge in local government bond issuance.


China Macro: Loan Prime Rates Unchanged in Jan; Easing Bias Remains

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

<ul>
<li>Chinese equity vol has been high over the last few months with extreme market moves on a number of headlines but is starting to calm down</li>
<li>US equity volatility continues to screen cheap despite calls for a challenging year and likely recession</li>
<li>We consider 2 relative vol trades to play a narrowing of the spread</li>
</ul>


Chinese equity vol has been high over the last few months with extreme market moves on a number of headlines but is starting to calm down
US equity volatility continues to screen cheap despite calls for a challenging year and likely recession
We consider 2 relative vol trades to play a narrowing of the spread


EQD | HSI Index Vs SPX Index: Sell Chinese Equity Vol to Buy US Equity Vol

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>End December was the end of the review cutoff for a lot of indices that will rebalance within the next couple of months.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 12 January.</li>
<li>There were big outflows from Hong Kong and China focused ETFs led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


End December was the end of the review cutoff for a lot of indices that will rebalance within the next couple of months.

PEXA Group (PXA AU) replaces Pendal Group (PDL AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 12 January.
There were big outflows from Hong Kong and China focused ETFs led by Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK) and Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK).


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

China Macro: Loan Prime Rates Unchanged in Jan; Easing Bias Remains

China's LPRs have held steady, but we believe a cut to the mortgage benchmark is imminent. A recovery in home prices may prove elusive. Debt-fueled...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

EQD | HSI Index Vs SPX Index: Sell Chinese Equity Vol to Buy US Equity Vol

We consider the volatility outlook for Chinese equities versus those in the US. We identify two relative value volatility spreads to monetise our...

Simon Harris

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSTECH, HSI, HSCI, KS200, KQ150, CSI300, SENSEX, LQ45, PSEi

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris