Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>While it may not be what investors are clamouring for - China follows through with its policies.</li>
<li>The broad Japanese indices continue to struggle despite JPY weakness</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
While it may not be what investors are clamouring for - China follows through with its policies.
The broad Japanese indices continue to struggle despite JPY weakness


Overview #11 – China Follows Through While Japan Dithers and India Feeds the Ducks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A cyclical bull market in Chinese stocks provide a good opportunity in the sector</li>
<li>Similar upside potential as the brokers but with less volatility</li>
<li>Insurance products still have a low level of penetration in China</li>
</ul>


A cyclical bull market in Chinese stocks provide a good opportunity in the sector
Similar upside potential as the brokers but with less volatility
Insurance products still have a low level of penetration in China


Insurance Sector as a Leveraged Play on the Chinese Revival

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (1395186D CH)</a> is offering 1.355bn shares in its IPO at a price range of HK$3.73-3.99/share. With the overallotment option, the IPO could raise up to HK$6.2bn (US$801m).</li>
<li>Cornerstone investors will take up a third of the offer. Those shares will be locked up for 6 months and will significantly reduce the free float of the stock.</li>
<li>Index inclusions will commence with the HSCI in March 2025 - however, as a stock with Weighted Voting Rights, inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will only take place in May.</li>
</ul>



Horizon Robotics (1395186D CH) is offering 1.355bn shares in its IPO at a price range of HK$3.73-3.99/share. With the overallotment option, the IPO could raise up to HK$6.2bn (US$801m).
Cornerstone investors will take up a third of the offer. Those shares will be locked up for 6 months and will significantly reduce the free float of the stock.
Index inclusions will commence with the HSCI in March 2025 - however, as a stock with Weighted Voting Rights, inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will only take place in May.


Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (CRB HK)</a> is offering 347.8m shares in its IPO at a price range of HK$13.5-14.5/share. With the overallotment option, the IPO could raise up to HK$5.8bn (US$474m).</li>
<li>Cornerstone investors will take up nearly half the offer. Those shares will be locked up for 6 months and will significantly reduce the free float of the stock.</li>
<li>Index inclusions will commence with the HSCI in March 2025 - that will also result in Stock Connect inclusion. The next index inclusion will take place in June.</li>
</ul>



China Resources Beverage (CRB HK) is offering 347.8m shares in its IPO at a price range of HK$13.5-14.5/share. With the overallotment option, the IPO could raise up to HK$5.8bn (US$474m).
Cornerstone investors will take up nearly half the offer. Those shares will be locked up for 6 months and will significantly reduce the free float of the stock.
Index inclusions will commence with the HSCI in March 2025 - that will also result in Stock Connect inclusion. The next index inclusion will take place in June.


China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Index Inclusions & Stock Connect in 2025

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance for the HSIII Index only involves capping to limit stocks to 12% of the index weight. There will not be any constituent changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.9bn (US$378m).</li>
<li>The largest outflows are expected to be from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> with inflows spread across the other index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance for the HSIII Index only involves capping to limit stocks to 12% of the index weight. There will not be any constituent changes.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.9bn (US$378m).
The largest outflows are expected to be from Meituan (3690 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) with inflows spread across the other index constituents.


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Capping Flows in December

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Overview #11 – China Follows Through While Japan Dithers and India Feeds the Ducks

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the big kahunas in Asia - China, Japan and India

Rikki Malik

Insurance Sector as a Leveraged Play on the Chinese Revival

Chinese stocks in a cyclical bull market offer a promising opportunity especially in the insurance sector due to a reversal of trends and a low...

Rikki Malik

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines

Horizon Robotics priced at the top end of the IPO range. Stock starts trading today and could move higher. With a large chunk of the IPO taken by...

Brian Freitas

China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Index Inclusions & Stock Connect in 2025

Shares priced at HK$14.5 - the top end. Stock commences trading today. There is no immediate passive buying expected and the stock debut could be...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Capping Flows in December

No constituent changes but there will be capping flows. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

Overview #11 – China Follows Through While Japan Dithers and India Feeds the Ducks

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the big kahunas in Asia - China, Japan and India

Rikki Malik

Insurance Sector as a Leveraged Play on the Chinese Revival

​Chinese stocks in a cyclical bull market offer a promising opportunity especially in the insurance sector due to a reversal of trends and a low...

Rikki Malik

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines

Horizon Robotics priced at the top end of the IPO range. Stock starts trading today and could move higher. With a large chunk of the IPO taken by...

Brian Freitas

China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Index Inclusions & Stock Connect in 2025

Shares priced at HK$14.5 - the top end. Stock commences trading today. There is no immediate passive buying expected and the stock debut could be...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Capping Flows in December

No constituent changes but there will be capping flows. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

Chinese stocks in a cyclical bull market offer a promising opportunity especially in the insurance sector due to a reversal of trends and a low...