Chief Economist

Diana Choyleva

Enodo Economics

Enodo Economics is an independent macroeconomic forecasting company that untangles complexity, challenges the consensus, and makes sense of the future. Our focus is on China – one of the most misunderstood economies in the world, but one of the most important to figure out.  Enodo’s chief economist, Diana Choyleva, has been analysing China for almost 20 years, while Enodo’s team boasts a combined 140 years’ experience covering China’s economy, politics and markets. 

Macroeconomics

<h2>China News That Matters</h2><ul>
<li>China looks to Europe for support against US tariffs</li>
<li>North Korea and Taiwan are part of the game</li>
<li>Hong Kong’s influence in IPO market is growing</li>
<li>Aid for small businesses; crackdown on property market</li>
<li>Unregulated lending catches regulator’s eye</li>
</ul><div class="content-remarks">In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.</div>

China News That Matters
China looks to Europe for support against US tariffs
North Korea and Taiwan are part of the game
Hong Kong’s influence in IPO market is growing
Aid for small businesses; crackdown on property market
Unregulated lending catches regulator’s eye
In my weekly digest China News That Matters, I will give you selected summaries, sourced from a variety of local Chinese-language and international news outlets, and highlight why I think the news is significant. These posts are meant to neither be bullish nor bearish, but help you separate the signal from the noise.

Trade War Escalates/N. Korea and Taiwan/Chinese IPOs in HK/Diverging Interest Rates/P2P Crackdown

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

We have been bearish/short core Asia for months now led by the bullish USD cycle that kicked off in April 2018. It is the Shanghai composite break below macro support that is showing higher degree resolution in the Asian cycle. Trade fears were simply the trigger and outflows are providing bear momentum that should lead us into capitulation and an intermediate cycle low near late July (according to our cycle work).We use the A 50 futures for positioning (been short for some time) but the…

We have been bearish/short core Asia for months now led by the bullish USD cycle that kicked off in April 2018. It is the Shanghai composite break below macro support that is showing higher degree resolution in the Asian cycle. Trade fears were simply the trigger and outflows are providing bear momentum that should lead us into capitulation and an intermediate cycle low near late July (according to our cycle work).We use the A 50 futures for positioning (been short for some time) but the…

CNH Tactical Peak with HK Short and Long Targets

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Technical Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/055/660/original/CP%20header.jpg?1529578972" data-smartkarma-image-id="55660"></figure>This webcast runs through our short positioning in Asia and where we are adding short exposure.Asian bear pressure has notched higher amid the call for broader USD strength and trade friction. Last week, we noted increased odds of selling pressure due to redemptions/outflows which will have a lingering impact.S&amp;P 2,800 fade hit our 2,745 short to long turn target. The rise toward 2,800 resistance is an opportunity to place a fresh short hedge on our long tech positioning. We placed a short at…

This webcast runs through our short positioning in Asia and where we are adding short exposure.Asian bear pressure has notched higher amid the call for broader USD strength and trade friction. Last week, we noted increased odds of selling pressure due to redemptions/outflows which will have a lingering impact.S&amp;P 2,800 fade hit our 2,745 short to long turn target. The rise toward 2,800 resistance is an opportunity to place a fresh short hedge on our long tech positioning. We placed a short at…

Hong Kong has been trading in a flat triangle pattern for months with the assumption the current flat range is part of a pullback cycle with risk of a C wave decline to complete the corrective cycle. We have used the range for tactical trades but this time the break looks more serious along with the EEM break of the pivotal 45 support. Our thesis stemmed from EM FX and equity weakness to bleed into the Asian FX and equity cycle. We are seeing USD bull momentum come through in Asia.Hong Kong's…

Hong Kong has been trading in a flat triangle pattern for months with the assumption the current flat range is part of a pullback cycle with risk of a C wave decline to complete the corrective cycle. We have used the range for tactical trades but this time the break looks more serious along with the EEM break of the pivotal 45 support. Our thesis stemmed from EM FX and equity weakness to bleed into the Asian FX and equity cycle. We are seeing USD bull momentum come through in Asia.Hong Kong's…

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Trade War Escalates/N. Korea and Taiwan/Chinese IPOs in HK/Diverging Interest Rates/P2P Crackdown

China News That Matters China looks to Europe for support against US tariffs North Korea and Taiwan are part of the game Hong Kong’s influence in...

Diana Choyleva

CNH Tactical Peak with HK Short and Long Targets

We have been bearish/short core Asia for months now led by the bullish USD cycle that kicked off in April 2018. It is the Shanghai composite break...

Thomas Schroeder

Tactical Short Targets in Asia

This webcast runs through our short positioning in Asia and where we are adding short exposure.Asian bear pressure has notched higher amid the call...

Thomas Schroeder

HSI Support Break and Targets

Hong Kong has been trading in a flat triangle pattern for months with the assumption the current flat range is part of a pullback cycle with risk...

Thomas Schroeder

Global Equity Markets Overview

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and...

Vermilion Research