'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/078/341/original/2019-02-10_05-07-57.png?1549742898" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="78341"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>BOTTOM LINE BREAKDOWN</strong> - 1,277 earnings results and/or revisions announcements were released last week in Japan covering 36% of listed market capitalisation. The good news is that aggregate trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Income only declined by ¥300b. Less welcome is the ¥1.7t decline in TTM Net Income to which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/154" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7797" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1">Hitachi (6501 JP)</a> were the most significant contributors, each declining by more than ¥200b. Three 'financials', <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/742" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/219" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6267" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6267:1">Suruga Bank (8358 JP)</a> subtracted ¥400b between them. Only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/563" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1">Sony (6758 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/637" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a> added more than ¥100b for the quarter. <strong>The substantial 'gap' between forecast and TTM Net Income has been reduced to just ¥600b, again confirming the reliability of corporate forecasting in Japan. The All-Market PER is now 13.5 times but will likely rise as aggregate Net Income falls further in the next two weeks.</strong></p><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>In the DETAIL section below, we review this year's results of all listed companies in aggregate, update our All-Market and Sector Results &amp; Revision Scores and look at the twenty-five best and worst large-cap company results over the last week, with short comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13176" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13176:1">Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8467" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8467:1">Workman (7564 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20823" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20823:1">Nakanishi (7716 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/747" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:747:1">DeNA (2432 JP)</a></strong></p></div>

Source: Japan AnalyticsBOTTOM LINE BREAKDOWN - 1,277 earnings results and/or revisions announcements were released last week in Japan covering 36% of listed market capitalisation. The good news is that aggregate trailing-twelve-month (TTM) Operating Income only declined by ¥300b. Less welcome is the ¥1.7t decline in TTM Net Income to which Toyota Motor (7203 JP), Honda Motor (7267 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP), Hitachi (6501 JP) were the most significant contributors, each declining by more than ¥200b. Three 'financials', Nomura Holdings (8604 JP), Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP), and Suruga Bank (8358 JP) subtracted ¥400b between them. Only Sony (6758 JP) and Toshiba (6502 JP) added more than ¥100b for the quarter. The substantial 'gap' between forecast and TTM Net Income has been reduced to just ¥600b, again confirming the reliability of corporate forecasting in Japan. The All-Market PER is now 13.5 times but will likely rise as aggregate Net Income falls further in the next two weeks.In the DETAIL section below, we review this year's results of all listed companies in aggregate, update our All-Market and Sector Results &amp; Revision Scores and look at the twenty-five best and worst large-cap company results over the last week, with short comments on Nabtesco Corp (6268 JP), Workman (7564 JP), Nakanishi (7716 JP), and DeNA (2432 JP)

Japan: Results & Revisions Second Cut - Bottom Line Breakdown

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Aqila Ali

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/222" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:222:1">Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)</a>’s 3Q earnings were quite weak, failing to meet both consensus and our estimates. Panasonic reported revenue of JPY2,074.8bn and OP of JPY97.5bn resulting in an OPM of 4.7% compared to 5.8% in the third quarter of last year</li>
<li>The majority of revenue growth came from the Automotive &amp; Industrial Solution (A&amp;IS) segment which saw the strongest growth in revenue at nearly 8% YoY followed by the Eco Solutions Segment. Despite the steady growth in the A&amp;IS revenue, the segment continued to display a decline in profits by almost 13% YoY.</li>
<li>A downward revision in targets was made following the weak earnings this quarter. Nine-months cumulative figures weren’t particularly attractive in the OP front as well (Revenue up 3% YoY and OP down -8% YoY as of 3QFY03/19). Panasonic is nearing our modest case scenario, although its downward revised earnings target places it in our worst-case scenario, where we expect Panasonic to be exposed to a high degree of risk, increasing its lookout for other customers. Panasonic has only tied up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/73" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> thus far and may have to diversify its customer base further to bring earnings to a sustainable level.</li>
<li>After the earnings release and news about Chinese competitor, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24404" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a>, collaborating with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/154" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a> ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/honda-chooses-catl-as-battery-partner-for-their-evs-panasonic-has-lost-the-chance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:27811">Honda Chooses CATL as Battery Partner for Their EVs; Panasonic Has Lost the Chance</a>), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20279" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> announced that it was acquiring battery company Maxwell Technologies for production of its EV batteries. Panasonic fell almost -5% on Monday’s open.</li>
</ul>



Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)’s 3Q earnings were quite weak, failing to meet both consensus and our estimates. Panasonic reported revenue of JPY2,074.8bn and OP of JPY97.5bn resulting in an OPM of 4.7% compared to 5.8% in the third quarter of last year
The majority of revenue growth came from the Automotive &amp; Industrial Solution (A&amp;IS) segment which saw the strongest growth in revenue at nearly 8% YoY followed by the Eco Solutions Segment. Despite the steady growth in the A&amp;IS revenue, the segment continued to display a decline in profits by almost 13% YoY.
A downward revision in targets was made following the weak earnings this quarter. Nine-months cumulative figures weren’t particularly attractive in the OP front as well (Revenue up 3% YoY and OP down -8% YoY as of 3QFY03/19). Panasonic is nearing our modest case scenario, although its downward revised earnings target places it in our worst-case scenario, where we expect Panasonic to be exposed to a high degree of risk, increasing its lookout for other customers. Panasonic has only tied up with Toyota Motor (7203 JP) thus far and may have to diversify its customer base further to bring earnings to a sustainable level.
After the earnings release and news about Chinese competitor, CATL (A) (300750 CH), collaborating with Honda Motor (7267 JP) ( Honda Chooses CATL as Battery Partner for Their EVs; Panasonic Has Lost the Chance), Tesla Motors (TSLA US) announced that it was acquiring battery company Maxwell Technologies for production of its EV batteries. Panasonic fell almost -5% on Monday’s open.


The Downward Revision in FY03/19 Guidance Places Panasonic in Our Worst-Case Scenario

Event-Driven

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24404" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1">CATL (A) (300750 CH)</a> announced on Monday that it has signed a deal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/154" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a> for jointly developing Li-ion batteries. This news comes to us as no surprise, given CATL’s effort in expanding market share globally by tying with leading automakers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/72" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21602" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21602:1">Daimler AG (DAI GR)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/21591" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21591:1">Bayerische Motoren Werke Ag (BMW GR)</a>. It seems that the Chinese battery leader is now targeting leading Japanese automakers alongside their focus on luxury automakers in Europe ( <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bmw-to-invest-in-catl-chinese-battery-maker-to-gain-exposure-in-europe" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22389">BMW to Invest in CATL: Chinese Battery Maker to Gain Exposure in Europe?</a>).  Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/222" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:222:1">Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)</a>’s news about forming a Joint Venture with Toyota, we were under the impression that Panasonic would hit a deal with Honda as well. However, it seems that CATL has emerged as a first mover and secured a steady business by partnering with Honda, one of the leading automakers in Japan. Although Panasonic and Honda joined hands for developing a swappable battery system in Indonesia, the team hasn’t really gone ahead in developing Li-ion batteries. Honda’s battery sales are now for CATL, while Panasonic has lost a steady business deal unless the latter makes plans with Honda to develop new battery technologies such as solid-state batteries. In our opinion, Honda and CATL, being leaders in their respective industries, when joined together via this agreement should capture a strong position in the auto sector which is striding towards electrification. The effect of this news on CATL share price cannot be really seen as the markets are closed for ongoing holidays in China. Panasonic, however, opened -5.1% low on February 5th, mainly due to its disappointing 3QFY03/19 earnings and could be partly due to this news.</p>

CATL (A) (300750 CH) announced on Monday that it has signed a deal with Honda Motor (7267 JP) for jointly developing Li-ion batteries. This news comes to us as no surprise, given CATL’s effort in expanding market share globally by tying with leading automakers such as Nissan Motor (7201 JP), Daimler AG (DAI GR), and Bayerische Motoren Werke Ag (BMW GR). It seems that the Chinese battery leader is now targeting leading Japanese automakers alongside their focus on luxury automakers in Europe ( BMW to Invest in CATL: Chinese Battery Maker to Gain Exposure in Europe?).  Following Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)’s news about forming a Joint Venture with Toyota, we were under the impression that Panasonic would hit a deal with Honda as well. However, it seems that CATL has emerged as a first mover and secured a steady business by partnering with Honda, one of the leading automakers in Japan. Although Panasonic and Honda joined hands for developing a swappable battery system in Indonesia, the team hasn’t really gone ahead in developing Li-ion batteries. Honda’s battery sales are now for CATL, while Panasonic has lost a steady business deal unless the latter makes plans with Honda to develop new battery technologies such as solid-state batteries. In our opinion, Honda and CATL, being leaders in their respective industries, when joined together via this agreement should capture a strong position in the auto sector which is striding towards electrification. The effect of this news on CATL share price cannot be really seen as the markets are closed for ongoing holidays in China. Panasonic, however, opened -5.1% low on February 5th, mainly due to its disappointing 3QFY03/19 earnings and could be partly due to this news.

Honda Chooses CATL as Battery Partner for Their EVs; Panasonic Has Lost the Chance

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE) are showing signs of bottoming due to positive short-term price inflections topside their respective downtrends. Additionally, cyclical Sectors Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing exhibit early signs of price and RS bottoms throughout Europe, Japan, and EM.  In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable opportunities within these cyclical Sectors, and provide a technical appraisal of major global indexes.</p>

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE) are showing signs of bottoming due to positive short-term price inflections topside their respective downtrends. Additionally, cyclical Sectors Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Manufacturing exhibit early signs of price and RS bottoms throughout Europe, Japan, and EM.  In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable opportunities within these cyclical Sectors, and provide a technical appraisal of major global indexes.

Global Equity Strategy: Global Outlook Improving

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<p>This month-end share class summary is a companion insight to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/25" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25">Travis Lundy</a>'s H/A Spread &amp; Southbound <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2018-hk-connect-southbound-in-a-nutshell" target="_blank">Monitors</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:9">Ke Yan</a>'s <a href="http://bit.ly/2WloING" target="_blank">HK Connect Discovery Weeklies</a>.</p>
<p>This share class monitor provides a snapshot of the premium/discounts for various share classifications around the region, and comprises four sets of data:</p>
<p>1.  82 ADRs <br>2.  104 Korean Prefs <br>3.  22 Regional Dual Classes<br>4.  7 Foreign/Local Thai shares </p>
<p>The average premium/discount for each set over a one-year period is graphed below.</p>
<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/077/513/original/Jan%20Chart.PNG?1548933810" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="77513"></figure>
Source: CapIQ</div>
<p><em>For a granular breakdown of each data set, PDFs are attached at the bottom of this insight.</em></p>

This month-end share class summary is a companion insight to Travis Lundy's H/A Spread &amp; Southbound Monitors and Ke Yan's HK Connect Discovery Weeklies.
This share class monitor provides a snapshot of the premium/discounts for various share classifications around the region, and comprises four sets of data:
1.  82 ADRs  2.  104 Korean Prefs  3.  22 Regional Dual Classes 4.  7 Foreign/Local Thai shares 
The average premium/discount for each set over a one-year period is graphed below.


Source: CapIQ
For a granular breakdown of each data set, PDFs are attached at the bottom of this insight.

Share Classifications: Jan 2019 Month-End Snapshot

Japan

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business. Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

Price Gauge
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Honda Motor (7267 JP)

Japan: Results & Revisions Second Cut - Bottom Line Breakdown

BOTTOM LINE BREAKDOWN - 1,277 earnings results and/or revisions announcements were released last week in Japan covering 36% of listed market...

Campbell Gunn

The Downward Revision in FY03/19 Guidance Places Panasonic in Our Worst-Case Scenario

Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)’s 3Q earnings were quite weak, failing to meet both consensus and our estimates. Panasonic reported revenue of...

Aqila Ali

Honda Chooses CATL as Battery Partner for Their EVs; Panasonic Has Lost the Chance

CATL (A) (300750 CH) announced on Monday that it has signed a deal with Honda Motor (7267 JP) for jointly developing Li-ion batteries. This news...

Aqila Ali

Global Equity Strategy: Global Outlook Improving

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE) are showing signs of bottoming due to positive short-term price inflections topside their...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan: Results & Revisions Second Cut - Bottom Line Breakdown

BOTTOM LINE BREAKDOWN - 1,277 earnings results and/or revisions announcements were released last week in Japan covering 36% of listed market...

Campbell Gunn

The Downward Revision in FY03/19 Guidance Places Panasonic in Our Worst-Case Scenario

Panasonic Corp (6752 JP)’s 3Q earnings were quite weak, failing to meet both consensus and our estimates. Panasonic reported revenue of...

Aqila Ali

Honda Chooses CATL as Battery Partner for Their EVs; Panasonic Has Lost the Chance

CATL (A) (300750 CH) announced on Monday that it has signed a deal with Honda Motor (7267 JP) for jointly developing Li-ion batteries. This news...

Aqila Ali

Global Equity Strategy: Global Outlook Improving

Broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE) are showing signs of bottoming due to positive short-term price inflections topside their...

Vermilion Research

Share Classifications: Jan 2019 Month-End Snapshot

This month-end share class summary is a companion insight to Travis Lundy's H/A Spread & Southbound Monitors and Ke Yan's HK Connect Discovery...

David Blennerhassett