Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We hold a neutral view on 1Q25E core profit, which is expected to be flat YoY and QoQ owing to a decline in SSSG, with 1Q25E forecast to account for 24% of the 2025E earnings.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest maintaining a Neutral rating, reflecting a neutral view on both the current fundamentals and the tactical outlook, alongside weak long-term growth prospects (expect a 9% CAGR over the next three years).</li><li>KTX has revised the fair value to Bt8.25 using the earnings yield method, based on a required return of 6.8%, with updated macro assumptions of Rf = 2.07% and MRP = 5.58% (previously Bt8.80, 5.9%, Rf = 2.27%, and MRP = 4.43%).</li></ul>

We hold a neutral view on 1Q25E core profit, which is expected to be flat YoY and QoQ owing to a decline in SSSG, with 1Q25E forecast to account for 24% of the 2025E earnings.The valuation metrics suggest maintaining a Neutral rating, reflecting a neutral view on both the current fundamentals and the tactical outlook, alongside weak long-term growth prospects (expect a 9% CAGR over the next three years).KTX has revised the fair value to Bt8.25 using the earnings yield method, based on a required return of 6.8%, with updated macro assumptions of Rf = 2.07% and MRP = 5.58% (previously Bt8.80, 5.9%, Rf = 2.27%, and MRP = 4.43%).

Home Product Center - 1Q25E Core Profit to Remain Stable YoY and QoQ; Lower SSSG

<ul><li>HMPRO announced a share repurchase program of up to 800mn shares, or approximately 6% of the total outstanding shares, with a maximum budget of Bt7.0bn.</li><li>The buy-back period will run from April 1 to September 30, 2025 (a total duration of six months), aimed at enhancing cash management efficiency. (Source: SET)</li><li>HMPRO has a strong financial position, with a net D/E ratio of 0.67x, cash on hand of Bt5.6bn (Bt0.42/share), operating cash flow of Bt10bn, and free cash flow (FCF) of Bt6.5bn as of end-2024.</li></ul>

HMPRO announced a share repurchase program of up to 800mn shares, or approximately 6% of the total outstanding shares, with a maximum budget of Bt7.0bn.The buy-back period will run from April 1 to September 30, 2025 (a total duration of six months), aimed at enhancing cash management efficiency. (Source: SET)HMPRO has a strong financial position, with a net D/E ratio of 0.67x, cash on hand of Bt5.6bn (Bt0.42/share), operating cash flow of Bt10bn, and free cash flow (FCF) of Bt6.5bn as of end-2024.

HMPRO TB. - Share Repurchase Program with a Budget of up to Bt7.0bn...

<ul><li>4Q24E profit is expected to have grown 8% YoY and 14% QoQ, propelled by improving same-store sales growth (SSSG), albeit still negative, and a recovery in the gross profit margin (GPM). For 2024E, profit is likely to have remained stable.</li><li>The valuation has been revised to a neutral view (previously sell) based on the current fundamentals, as the stock price has declined 40% over the past year, reflecting six consecutive quarters of negative SSSG.</li><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">However, the long-term growth outlook remains weak, </span>with earnings growth expected at a CAGR of 7% over the next two years. The tactical view also remains neutral.</li></ul>

4Q24E profit is expected to have grown 8% YoY and 14% QoQ, propelled by improving same-store sales growth (SSSG), albeit still negative, and a recovery in the gross profit margin (GPM). For 2024E, profit is likely to have remained stable.The valuation has been revised to a neutral view (previously sell) based on the current fundamentals, as the stock price has declined 40% over the past year, reflecting six consecutive quarters of negative SSSG.However, the long-term growth outlook remains weak, with earnings growth expected at a CAGR of 7% over the next two years. The tactical view also remains neutral.

Home Product Center - Expect 4 Q24E Earnings Growth of YoY and Qo and Stable 2024E Earnings

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The US labor market continues to show signs of softening.</li><li>Crude oil prices rose by around 1% this morning after the US announced a blockade on oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.</li><li>The Finance Minister said after discussions with the Election Commission (EC) that the government cannot proceed with the Khon La Khrueng Plus Phase 2 scheme, nor other economic stimulus measures, as the caretaker cabinet is constitutionally prohibited from committing budgetary spending.</li></ul>

The US labor market continues to show signs of softening.Crude oil prices rose by around 1% this morning after the US announced a blockade on oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.The Finance Minister said after discussions with the Election Commission (EC) that the government cannot proceed with the Khon La Khrueng Plus Phase 2 scheme, nor other economic stimulus measures, as the caretaker cabinet is constitutionally prohibited from committing budgetary spending.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 17, 2025

<ul><li>If the MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged, the baht is likely to appreciate against the US dollar (Figure 3), driven by a wider yield differential between Thailand and the US as the US cuts rates while Thailand holds steady.</li><li>We therefore recommend ‘trading’, focusing on high-dividend stocks as a buffer against valuation-driven corrections, namely THANI (KTX fair price: Bt2.30), supported by a strong balance sheet, low D/E of around 2x, and a dividend yield of about 5.2%, and ADVANC (KTX fair price: Bt346), a defensive stock with a dividend yield of around 5.0%.</li><li>The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.</li></ul>

If the MPC keeps the policy rate unchanged, the baht is likely to appreciate against the US dollar (Figure 3), driven by a wider yield differential between Thailand and the US as the US cuts rates while Thailand holds steady.We therefore recommend ‘trading’, focusing on high-dividend stocks as a buffer against valuation-driven corrections, namely THANI (KTX fair price: Bt2.30), supported by a strong balance sheet, low D/E of around 2x, and a dividend yield of about 5.2%, and ADVANC (KTX fair price: Bt346), a defensive stock with a dividend yield of around 5.0%.The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.

KTX AHEAD: MPC Rate Cut/Hold Odds Are Close, With A Slight Bias Toward A Hold

Thailand

Home Product Center Public Company Limited is a retailer of building materials and home improvement products.

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Home Product Center (HMPRO TB)

Home Product Center - 1Q25E Core Profit to Remain Stable YoY and QoQ; Lower SSSG

We hold a neutral view on 1Q25E core profit, which is expected to be flat YoY and QoQ owing to a decline in SSSG, with 1Q25E forecast to account...

Krungthai XSpring

Home Product Center - Expect 4 Q24E Earnings Growth of YoY and Qo and Stable 2024E Earnings

4Q24E profit is expected to have grown 8% YoY and 14% QoQ, propelled by improving same-store sales growth (SSSG), albeit still negative, and a...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 17, 2025

Crude oil prices rose by around 1% this morning after the US announced a blockade on oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX AHEAD: MPC Rate Cut/Hold Odds Are Close, With A Slight Bias Toward A Hold

The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Home Product Center - 1Q25E Core Profit to Remain Stable YoY and QoQ; Lower SSSG

We hold a neutral view on 1Q25E core profit, which is expected to be flat YoY and QoQ owing to a decline in SSSG, with 1Q25E forecast to account...

Krungthai XSpring

HMPRO TB. - Share Repurchase Program with a Budget of up to Bt7.0bn...

HMPRO announced a share repurchase program of up to 800mn shares, or approximately 6% of the total outstanding shares, with a maximum budget of...

Krungthai XSpring

Home Product Center - Expect 4 Q24E Earnings Growth of YoY and Qo and Stable 2024E Earnings

4Q24E profit is expected to have grown 8% YoY and 14% QoQ, propelled by improving same-store sales growth (SSSG), albeit still negative, and a...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. December 17, 2025

Crude oil prices rose by around 1% this morning after the US announced a blockade on oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.

Krungthai XSpring

KTX AHEAD: MPC Rate Cut/Hold Odds Are Close, With A Slight Bias Toward A Hold

The MPC meeting on December 17 reflects a close balance between supporting vulnerable groups and preserving monetary policy effectiveness.

Krungthai XSpring