EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This piece highlights my recent proposal for a mechanism to solve the enforceability and adaptability issues faced by OPEC in their proposed production cuts and provides some worked examples of how the Tactical Petroleum Fund would work in practice for Smartkarma readers.

This piece highlights my recent proposal for a mechanism to solve the enforceability and adaptability issues faced by OPEC in their proposed production cuts and provides some worked examples of how the Tactical Petroleum Fund would work in practice for Smartkarma readers.

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

The Dudes Who Don't Matter. When I was studying MBA in New York, I met a senior at Lehman Brothers, and I must have said something like "Wow! You're already a Vice-President." And he was like..."Ah, there are so many Vice-Presidents on Wall Street. We don't matter."Truth is you could probably say the Vice-Presidential candidates of America. Unless the President dies (Kennedy, McKinley, Lincoln) before the term is over, the job description of Joe Biden seems to be recommending the best chicken…

The Dudes Who Don't Matter. When I was studying MBA in New York, I met a senior at Lehman Brothers, and I must have said something like "Wow! You're already a Vice-President." And he was like..."Ah, there are so many Vice-Presidents on Wall Street. We don't matter."Truth is you could probably say the Vice-Presidential candidates of America. Unless the President dies (Kennedy, McKinley, Lincoln) before the term is over, the job description of Joe Biden seems to be recommending the best chicken…

Battle of the Second Fiddles: Pence 1, Kane 0

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics flash  4 October 2016<div>Bullish energy theme for Q4</div>Oil is building energy for a rise out of noted bullish triangle patterns on the back of initial breakouts above RSI resistance levels. The July low in Brent missed our ideal 40.20 buy zone by a margin but does appear to have satisfied the corrective cycle that was followed by a rather mild pullback from early August that essentially formed the current triangle. Triangle patterns are formed when two cycles face off, in this case, the…

Chartonics flash  4 October 2016Bullish energy theme for Q4Oil is building energy for a rise out of noted bullish triangle patterns on the back of initial breakouts above RSI resistance levels. The July low in Brent missed our ideal 40.20 buy zone by a margin but does appear to have satisfied the corrective cycle that was followed by a rather mild pullback from early August that essentially formed the current triangle. Triangle patterns are formed when two cycles face off, in this case, the…

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

In a somewhat surprising development, OPEC members have tentatively agreed to a production target of between 32.5 million and 33.3 million barrels per day, representing a reduction of up to 700 mb/d from current production levels of 33.2 mmb/d.Oil prices rallied on the news, but our view for continued low prices of $50/bbl in 2017 (detailed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oil-markets-fundamentals-improving-but-u-s-shale-still-looms" target="_blank">Oil Markets: Fundamentals Improving, but U.S. Shale Still Looms</a>) remains unchanged, as we do not believe the potential reduction will have a meaningful sustainable impact on oil prices. While the low end of the target range is nearly 1 mmbd lower than our 2017 forecast for OPEC production, and if realized, it would balance markets and reduce inventories sooner than our original expectations, we see numerous risk factors that we think prevent a sustained recovery in prices until 2018.Analysts: Stephen Simko, CFA &amp; Lorraine Tan, CFA

In a somewhat surprising development, OPEC members have tentatively agreed to a production target of between 32.5 million and 33.3 million barrels per day, representing a reduction of up to 700 mb/d from current production levels of 33.2 mmb/d.Oil prices rallied on the news, but our view for continued low prices of $50/bbl in 2017 (detailed in Oil Markets: Fundamentals Improving, but U.S. Shale Still Looms) remains unchanged, as we do not believe the potential reduction will have a meaningful sustainable impact on oil prices. While the low end of the target range is nearly 1 mmbd lower than our 2017 forecast for OPEC production, and if realized, it would balance markets and reduce inventories sooner than our original expectations, we see numerous risk factors that we think prevent a sustained recovery in prices until 2018.Analysts: Stephen Simko, CFA &amp; Lorraine Tan, CFA

OPEC Cuts, U.S. E&Ps Drill: Our Oil Price Outlook Remains Unchanged

In May we noted that Saudi was likely to pursue a production maximisation policy for 6 months, with a freeze or cuts likely as we head into winter.This appears to have been prescient as OPEC yesterday announced that OPEC-14 production levels would be capped at 32.5-33mbpd, a slight decrease over the levels achieved over summer and back at Doha talks levels.However, detail is lacking on the proposal and there is strong reason to doubt potential enforceability of any agreement, with oil jumping but still being flat month on month as a result.This piece explores some of these issues and potential market action.

In May we noted that Saudi was likely to pursue a production maximisation policy for 6 months, with a freeze or cuts likely as we head into winter.This appears to have been prescient as OPEC yesterday announced that OPEC-14 production levels would be capped at 32.5-33mbpd, a slight decrease over the levels achieved over summer and back at Doha talks levels.However, detail is lacking on the proposal and there is strong reason to doubt potential enforceability of any agreement, with oil jumping but still being flat month on month as a result.This piece explores some of these issues and potential market action.

United States

HF Sinclair Corporation refines, transports, stores, and markets petroleum products. The Company's refineries produce light products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel which are marketed in the southwestern United States, northern Mexico, and Montana.

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HF Sinclair (DINO US)

How to Fix Oil Prices

This piece highlights my recent proposal for a mechanism to solve the enforceability and adaptability issues faced by OPEC in their proposed...

Emad Mostaque

Battle of the Second Fiddles: Pence 1, Kane 0

The Dudes Who Don't Matter. When I was studying MBA in New York, I met a senior at Lehman Brothers, and I must have said something like "Wow!...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Bullish Energy

Chartonics flash 4 October 2016Bullish energy theme for Q4Oil is building energy for a rise out of noted bullish triangle patterns on the back of...

Thomas Schroeder

OPEC Cuts, U.S. E&Ps Drill: Our Oil Price Outlook Remains Unchanged

In a somewhat surprising development, OPEC members have tentatively agreed to a production target of between 32.5 million and 33.3 million barrels...

Morningstar, Inc.

Can OPEC Cut Production

In May we noted that Saudi was likely to pursue a production maximisation policy for 6 months, with a freeze or cuts likely as we head into...

Emad Mostaque

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