External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Following weak 9M24 results, we have trimmed our FY24F NP by 12.7%, with lower volume and ASP assumptions.</li><li>FY25F offers a better outlook, with projected NP growth of 6.3% yoy and vol. growth of 2% yoy (assuming no excise tax increase).</li><li>Maintain our Hold rating with an unchanged TP of Rp730 (FY25F PE of 11x) as we see uncertainty remains until the MOF regulation is released.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following weak 9M24 results, we have trimmed our FY24F NP by 12.7%, with lower volume and ASP assumptions.FY25F offers a better outlook, with projected NP growth of 6.3% yoy and vol. growth of 2% yoy (assuming no excise tax increase).Maintain our Hold rating with an unchanged TP of Rp730 (FY25F PE of 11x) as we see uncertainty remains until the MOF regulation is released.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HM Sampoerna - Trimming FY24F Post Weak 3Q24 Earnings

<ul><li>HMSP adjusted ASP of its products by 8.4% ytd in Jul24 (vs 1Q24: 6.1% ytd), which continues to weigh on its vol. growth (1Q24: +1.6% yoy).</li><li>We trim our FY24/25F core profit forecasts by 2.8%/0.5% to reflect lower gross margin estimates.</li><li>We downgrade our rating to Hold with a lower TP of Rp730 on lingering industry headwinds, despite HMSP’s promising growth from HTU</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HMSP adjusted ASP of its products by 8.4% ytd in Jul24 (vs 1Q24: 6.1% ytd), which continues to weigh on its vol. growth (1Q24: +1.6% yoy).We trim our FY24/25F core profit forecasts by 2.8%/0.5% to reflect lower gross margin estimates.We downgrade our rating to Hold with a lower TP of Rp730 on lingering industry headwinds, despite HMSP’s promising growth from HTUContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HM Sampoerna (HMSP.IJ Rp 705; HOLD; TP Rp 730) Regulatory Uncertainty Loom over HMSP

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>HMSP delivered a 1Q24 performance that was mostly in-line with our estimates.</li><li>1Q24 revenue came in at IDR29.1 tn, or grew nicely by +1.5% QoQ/+18.8% YoY.</li><li>The bottom-line remained solid, with 1Q24 net profit experiencing growth of +18.8% QoQ/+4.0% YoY to IDR2.2 tn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HMSP delivered a 1Q24 performance that was mostly in-line with our estimates.1Q24 revenue came in at IDR29.1 tn, or grew nicely by +1.5% QoQ/+18.8% YoY.The bottom-line remained solid, with 1Q24 net profit experiencing growth of +18.8% QoQ/+4.0% YoY to IDR2.2 tn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HMSP IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report May 13, 2024

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Based on our channel checks, tobacco companies under our coverage were relatively slow in adjusting ASPs in 2Q24 to offset the FY25 excise tax hike (+10%).</li><li>We believe producers are being cautious in adjusting ASPs amid relatively weak consumer spending power, particularly after the rise in food staple prices in 1H24.</li><li>We note that the excise revenue target in the 2025 draft state budget is IDR244.2 tn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Based on our channel checks, tobacco companies under our coverage were relatively slow in adjusting ASPs in 2Q24 to offset the FY25 excise tax hike (+10%).We believe producers are being cautious in adjusting ASPs amid relatively weak consumer spending power, particularly after the rise in food staple prices in 1H24.We note that the excise revenue target in the 2025 draft state budget is IDR244.2 tn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>FY24 excise revenue target growth of 5% yoy and 10% avg. tariff growth implies negative industry volume growth will continue.</li><li>Tepid 4% growth in 2024 minimum wages may lead to further downtrading; we expect the SKT category to continue gaining share.</li><li>We maintain OW rating as the sector’s 10.6x FY24F PE (24% disc. to avg 3yr PE) has priced in the downside, with cushion from 6-11% div. yield.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FY24 excise revenue target growth of 5% yoy and 10% avg. tariff growth implies negative industry volume growth will continue.Tepid 4% growth in 2024 minimum wages may lead to further downtrading; we expect the SKT category to continue gaining share.We maintain OW rating as the sector’s 10.6x FY24F PE (24% disc. to avg 3yr PE) has priced in the downside, with cushion from 6-11% div. yield.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cigarette: Attractive Value Proposition Despite Lingering Regulatory Headwinds...

Indonesia

PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk manufactures hand rolled and machine-rolled clove-blended cigarettes. The Company distributes its products in the domestic and international market. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops properties.

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HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)

HM Sampoerna - Trimming FY24F Post Weak 3Q24 Earnings

Maintain our Hold rating with an unchanged TP of Rp730 (FY25F PE of 11x) as we see uncertainty remains until the MOF regulation is released.

BRI Danareksa Research