External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Following weak 9M24 results, we have trimmed our FY24F NP by 12.7%, with lower volume and ASP assumptions.</li><li>FY25F offers a better outlook, with projected NP growth of 6.3% yoy and vol. growth of 2% yoy (assuming no excise tax increase).</li><li>Maintain our Hold rating with an unchanged TP of Rp730 (FY25F PE of 11x) as we see uncertainty remains until the MOF regulation is released.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following weak 9M24 results, we have trimmed our FY24F NP by 12.7%, with lower volume and ASP assumptions.FY25F offers a better outlook, with projected NP growth of 6.3% yoy and vol. growth of 2% yoy (assuming no excise tax increase).Maintain our Hold rating with an unchanged TP of Rp730 (FY25F PE of 11x) as we see uncertainty remains until the MOF regulation is released.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HM Sampoerna - Trimming FY24F Post Weak 3Q24 Earnings

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a> has been announced as a deletion from the Large cap of the Global Index at the September 2024 review.</li>
<li>The reason for the security's removal is due to a change of listing from an eligible to an ineligible exchange segment of the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX).</li>
<li>Forecasted passive fund supply is ~$24.6m and ~11.9 ADV at the close of 20 September 2024. The significant ADV is because of the security's low free float.</li>
</ul>



HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ) has been announced as a deletion from the Large cap of the Global Index at the September 2024 review.
The reason for the security's removal is due to a change of listing from an eligible to an ineligible exchange segment of the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX).
Forecasted passive fund supply is ~$24.6m and ~11.9 ADV at the close of 20 September 2024. The significant ADV is because of the security's low free float.


HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ): Global Index Deletion Following IDX Segment Shift

<ul><li>HMSP adjusted ASP of its products by 8.4% ytd in Jul24 (vs 1Q24: 6.1% ytd), which continues to weigh on its vol. growth (1Q24: +1.6% yoy).</li><li>We trim our FY24/25F core profit forecasts by 2.8%/0.5% to reflect lower gross margin estimates.</li><li>We downgrade our rating to Hold with a lower TP of Rp730 on lingering industry headwinds, despite HMSP’s promising growth from HTU</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HMSP adjusted ASP of its products by 8.4% ytd in Jul24 (vs 1Q24: 6.1% ytd), which continues to weigh on its vol. growth (1Q24: +1.6% yoy).We trim our FY24/25F core profit forecasts by 2.8%/0.5% to reflect lower gross margin estimates.We downgrade our rating to Hold with a lower TP of Rp730 on lingering industry headwinds, despite HMSP’s promising growth from HTUContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HM Sampoerna (HMSP.IJ Rp 705; HOLD; TP Rp 730) Regulatory Uncertainty Loom over HMSP

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>HMSP delivered a 1Q24 performance that was mostly in-line with our estimates.</li><li>1Q24 revenue came in at IDR29.1 tn, or grew nicely by +1.5% QoQ/+18.8% YoY.</li><li>The bottom-line remained solid, with 1Q24 net profit experiencing growth of +18.8% QoQ/+4.0% YoY to IDR2.2 tn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HMSP delivered a 1Q24 performance that was mostly in-line with our estimates.1Q24 revenue came in at IDR29.1 tn, or grew nicely by +1.5% QoQ/+18.8% YoY.The bottom-line remained solid, with 1Q24 net profit experiencing growth of +18.8% QoQ/+4.0% YoY to IDR2.2 tn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HMSP IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report May 13, 2024

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Indonesia

PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk manufactures hand rolled and machine-rolled clove-blended cigarettes. The Company distributes its products in the domestic and international market. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops properties.

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HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)

HM Sampoerna - Trimming FY24F Post Weak 3Q24 Earnings

Maintain our Hold rating with an unchanged TP of Rp730 (FY25F PE of 11x) as we see uncertainty remains until the MOF regulation is released.

BRI Danareksa Research