External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>HMSP adjusted ASP of its products by 8.4% ytd in Jul24 (vs 1Q24: 6.1% ytd), which continues to weigh on its vol. growth (1Q24: +1.6% yoy).</li><li>We trim our FY24/25F core profit forecasts by 2.8%/0.5% to reflect lower gross margin estimates.</li><li>We downgrade our rating to Hold with a lower TP of Rp730 on lingering industry headwinds, despite HMSP’s promising growth from HTU</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HMSP adjusted ASP of its products by 8.4% ytd in Jul24 (vs 1Q24: 6.1% ytd), which continues to weigh on its vol. growth (1Q24: +1.6% yoy).We trim our FY24/25F core profit forecasts by 2.8%/0.5% to reflect lower gross margin estimates.We downgrade our rating to Hold with a lower TP of Rp730 on lingering industry headwinds, despite HMSP’s promising growth from HTUContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HM Sampoerna (HMSP.IJ Rp 705; HOLD; TP Rp 730) Regulatory Uncertainty Loom over HMSP

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas

MNC Sekuritas, the first wholly-owned subsidiary established by the Group back in 1989, provides a complete range of services, from equity, fixed income, investment banking to providing research to optimize clients’ investments. Thus far, the company has more than 140 points of sales with over 100,000 clients. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>HMSP delivered a 1Q24 performance that was mostly in-line with our estimates.</li><li>1Q24 revenue came in at IDR29.1 tn, or grew nicely by +1.5% QoQ/+18.8% YoY.</li><li>The bottom-line remained solid, with 1Q24 net profit experiencing growth of +18.8% QoQ/+4.0% YoY to IDR2.2 tn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HMSP delivered a 1Q24 performance that was mostly in-line with our estimates.1Q24 revenue came in at IDR29.1 tn, or grew nicely by +1.5% QoQ/+18.8% YoY.The bottom-line remained solid, with 1Q24 net profit experiencing growth of +18.8% QoQ/+4.0% YoY to IDR2.2 tn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HMSP IJ - MNC Sekuritas Equity Report May 13, 2024

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Tower Bersama Infrastructure / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>FY24 excise revenue target growth of 5% yoy and 10% avg. tariff growth implies negative industry volume growth will continue.</li><li>Tepid 4% growth in 2024 minimum wages may lead to further downtrading; we expect the SKT category to continue gaining share.</li><li>We maintain OW rating as the sector’s 10.6x FY24F PE (24% disc. to avg 3yr PE) has priced in the downside, with cushion from 6-11% div. yield.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FY24 excise revenue target growth of 5% yoy and 10% avg. tariff growth implies negative industry volume growth will continue.Tepid 4% growth in 2024 minimum wages may lead to further downtrading; we expect the SKT category to continue gaining share.We maintain OW rating as the sector’s 10.6x FY24F PE (24% disc. to avg 3yr PE) has priced in the downside, with cushion from 6-11% div. yield.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cigarette: Attractive Value Proposition Despite Lingering Regulatory Headwinds...

Indonesia

PT Gudang Garam Tbk manufactures and distributes cigarettes and operates activities related to the cigarette industry. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the paper-related activities.

PT Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk is a manufacturer of of premium brand cigarettes.

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk manufactures and distributes animal feeds, woven plastic bags, and poultry equipment as well as processes chicken.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates poultry farms and distributes its products.

PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk and its subsidiaries manufacture instant noodles, wheat flour, baby food, food seasonings, coffee, cooking oil, and snacks.

PT Mayora Indah Tbk manufactures candies and cookies.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures food, coffee powder, instant coffee, and cocoa beans.

PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk provides a wide range of food products. The Company is a total food solutions company with operations in all stages of food manufacturing from the production of raw materials and their processing through to consumer products on the retailer's shelf.

PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry and Trading Company Tbk operates in the food and beverage industry. The Company produces aseptic drinks such as liquid milk, fruit juices and health drinks. Ultrajaya Milk also produces butter, powder milk and sweet condensed milk.

PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk manufactures animal feed, breeds and processes chickens, and operates aquaculture farms.  The Company trades its products domestically and internationally.

PT Siantar Top Tbk manufactures a variety of snack food products.  The Company produces snack noodles, crackers, and candies under the brand names Fuji Mie, Mie Goreng, Olala, Tamiku, Twistko, Tic-Tic, Twistball, Fuji Chips, Tovie Candy, Balico-Kelapa, and XUXU.

PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk operates rubber plantations and manufactures cooking oil. Through its subsidiaries,  the Company also operates a variety of other plantations such as palm oil, tea, and cocoa plantations.

Smoore International Holdings Limited offering vaping technology solutions with advanced research and development technology. The Company manufactures and produces closed system vaping devices, self branded open system vaping devices, vaping components, and other products. Smoore International Holdings markets its products throughout Hong Kong.

KT&G Corporation processes, produces, and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, manufactures ginseng products such as red ginseng tea and herbal medicines.  KT&G is also involved in real estate development of its former factory sites.

Godfrey Phillips India Limited manufactures and distributes cigarettes, smoking tobacco and cigars.  The Group's brands include Black & White Kingsize Filter, Four Square Kingsize Filter, Cavanders Navy Cut Regular, Red & White, Anand and Leader.  The Company also manufactures Virgin Gold and Philip's Gold cigarette tobacco.

Vector Group Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes in the United States.  The Company is also involved in the real estate business through its subsidiary.

British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited manufactures and sells cigarettes in Bangladesh. The company offers its products under the Benson & Hedges, John Player Gold Leaf, Pall Mall, Capstan, Star, Pilot, Hollywood, Derby, and Bristol brands. It also exports tobacco leafs. The company was formerly known as Bangladesh Tobacco Company Limited and changed its name to British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited in 1998. British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Dhaka, Bangladesh. British American Tobacco Bangladesh Company Limited is a subsidiary of Raleigh Investment Co. Ltd.

British American Tobacco Bangl (BATBC BD)

Eastern Tobacco produces cigarettes, cigars, pipe tobacco, cigarette rolling tobacco and water pipe tobacco.  The Company also produces related products including filter rods, tobacco flakes, paper packets  and printed materials.

Universal Corporation is an independent leaf tobacco merchant.  The Company has additional operations in agri-products and the distribution of lumber and building products.  Universal sells primarily flue-cured and burley tobaccos to manufacturers located throughout the world.

VST Industries Ltd. manufactures and distributes cigarettes and tobacco products. The Company's cigarette brands include "Charminar Specials," "Shah-IDeccan," "Charms Virginia Filter Kings," "Vazir," "Qila" and "Ambassador." VST Industries sells its products in India and abroad.

Ceylon Tobacco Company PLC manufactures and markets cigarettes and smoking tobacco products.

British American Tobacco Malaysia Berhad manufactures, imports, and sells cigarettes, pipe tobaccos, cigars, and luxury consumer products.  The Company also provides travel and advertising and promotional services.

PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk manufactures hand rolled and machine-rolled clove-blended cigarettes. The Company distributes its products in the domestic and international market. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops properties.

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HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)