Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

In May 2016, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a>  <a href="https://www.hitachi.com/New/cnews/month/2016/05/f_160513a.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a transaction whereby they sold a stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-capital-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14410:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Capital (8586 JP)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-lease-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1467:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Lease &amp; Finance (8593 JP)</a> to de-consolidate their holding, but would retain a 'negative control' stake of 33.4%. The result was a business and capital alliance designed to achieve more scale for the leasing companies and to improve the capital efficiency of Hitachi itself. The moves by Hitachi to improve its capital efficiency have come fast and furious the last few years with sales of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-kokusai-electric-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2523:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Kokusai Electric (6756 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-koki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18359:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Koki (6581 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14457:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP)</a>, a buy-in of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-high-tech-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7046:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi High-Tech (8036 JP)</a>, and a selldown to de-consolidate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-transport-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2395:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP)</a> in 2016, and now more recently there is media speculation about the eventual disposition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8561:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Metals (5486 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-construction-machinery" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19433:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)</a>.When earnings were presented in May this year, there was a small section in the presentation deck on the bottom half of p15 of the Update on the Mid-Term Management Plan <a href="http://www.hitachi.com/New/cnews/month/2020/05/200529a/f_200529apre.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation </a>(the <a href="http://www.hitachi.co.jp/New/cnews/month/2020/05/0529a/f_0529apre.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japanese</a> version has an extra word which helps clarify) talking about sales of property and assets and this got people excited. I went through it in some detail in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hitachi-s-capital-case-liquidating-land-policy-holdings-what-about-the-subs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:39920" rel="noopener">Hitachi's Capital Case - Liquidating Land &amp; Policy Holdings? What About the Subs?</a> and that indicated there was time for the remaining subs.<h2>The NEW News</h2>Today during business hours, there was a news story out on Diamond Online followed by a quick story on Bloomberg saying that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-capital-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14410:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Capital (8586 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-lease-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1467:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Lease &amp; Finance (8593 JP)</a> had decided to merge, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> would each own 20% of the new merged company. The <a href="https://www.hitachi-capital.co.jp/hcc/english/newsrelease/2020/20200924e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> came after the close. The two companies would merge at a share exchange ratio of 1.0:5.1, with the effective date of the Merger on 1 April 2021, and shareholder meetings for each company to approve the deal in late February 2021, but it does not discuss the idea of Mitsubishi Corp owning 20% of the combined company (it already owns 20% of MUFJ Lease but its stake would be diluted in the merger.As always, more below the fold.

In May 2016, Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)  announced a transaction whereby they sold a stake in Hitachi Capital (8586 JP) to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) and Mitsubishi UFJ Lease &amp; Finance (8593 JP) to de-consolidate their holding, but would retain a 'negative control' stake of 33.4%. The result was a business and capital alliance designed to achieve more scale for the leasing companies and to improve the capital efficiency of Hitachi itself. The moves by Hitachi to improve its capital efficiency have come fast and furious the last few years with sales of Hitachi Kokusai Electric (6756 JP), Hitachi Koki (6581 JP), Hitachi Chemical (4217 JP), a buy-in of Hitachi High-Tech (8036 JP), and a selldown to de-consolidate Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) in 2016, and now more recently there is media speculation about the eventual disposition of Hitachi Metals (5486 JP) and Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP).When earnings were presented in May this year, there was a small section in the presentation deck on the bottom half of p15 of the Update on the Mid-Term Management Plan presentation (the Japanese version has an extra word which helps clarify) talking about sales of property and assets and this got people excited. I went through it in some detail in Hitachi's Capital Case - Liquidating Land &amp; Policy Holdings? What About the Subs? and that indicated there was time for the remaining subs.The NEW NewsToday during business hours, there was a news story out on Diamond Online followed by a quick story on Bloomberg saying that Hitachi Capital (8586 JP) and Mitsubishi UFJ Lease &amp; Finance (8593 JP) had decided to merge, and Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) would each own 20% of the new merged company. The announcement came after the close. The two companies would merge at a share exchange ratio of 1.0:5.1, with the effective date of the Merger on 1 April 2021, and shareholder meetings for each company to approve the deal in late February 2021, but it does not discuss the idea of Mitsubishi Corp owning 20% of the combined company (it already owns 20% of MUFJ Lease but its stake would be diluted in the merger.As always, more below the fold.

Hitachi's Hitachi Capital Capital Case - A Merger With MUFG Lease

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Quantitative Analysis

After weather-driven weakness earlier in the summer, TMI's text-mined Machinery Sentiment Indicator recovered to +1.8x STDEV this week, its best reading since January, with our news attribution pointing to China infrastructure as the key catalyst.  Unlike the US, where residential is currently the sole source of construction growth while infrastructure lags (see our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshot-sentiment-analysis-suggests-infrastructure-likely-a-drag-on-us-non-res-construction" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43050" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshot: Sentiment Analysis Suggests Infrastructure Likely A Drag On US Non-Res Construction</a>), our China indicators are showing the exact opposite dynamic as the momentum of the earlier post-COVID residential property boom slows down while infrastructure starts picking up the slack.

After weather-driven weakness earlier in the summer, TMI's text-mined Machinery Sentiment Indicator recovered to +1.8x STDEV this week, its best reading since January, with our news attribution pointing to China infrastructure as the key catalyst.  Unlike the US, where residential is currently the sole source of construction growth while infrastructure lags (see our TMI Snapshot: Sentiment Analysis Suggests Infrastructure Likely A Drag On US Non-Res Construction), our China indicators are showing the exact opposite dynamic as the momentum of the earlier post-COVID residential property boom slows down while infrastructure starts picking up the slack.

TMI Snapshot:  Machinery Sentiment Indicator At 8-Month High on China Infrastructure Push

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

The Nikkei reported on the 20th that Hitachi was looking to sell Hitachi Metals and had contacted foreign investment banks to do so. This is an interesting scenario as Bloomberg had previously reported that Hitachi Metals was itself looking to sell its Waupaca unit which is one of the businesses which is struggling the most at the moment. We discuss the possibilities below.

The Nikkei reported on the 20th that Hitachi was looking to sell Hitachi Metals and had contacted foreign investment banks to do so. This is an interesting scenario as Bloomberg had previously reported that Hitachi Metals was itself looking to sell its Waupaca unit which is one of the businesses which is struggling the most at the moment. We discuss the possibilities below.

There are many reasons why active investors in Japan should be interested in understanding the ownership and shareholder dynamics of passive investors in Japan.Some of the places active investors will see this are:<ul>
<li>Stories intermittently published about the BOJ's presence in Japanese ETFs (especially the fact that it owns 80+% of the outstanding ETF market),</li>
<li>Relatively constant interest in Nikkei 225 rebalances like the one we saw in July 2020, which helped push up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP)</a> by 30+% from May to July, then helped it slide 13% in a week,</li>
<li>The mooted return of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> to the TSE First Section, </li>
<li>The relatively recent policy of increased stewardship regarding the passive management portion of the GPIF (the Government Pension Investment Fund) - an investing heavyweight in Japan,</li>
<li>The changes to the TSE's market structure, which appear to be coming sooner than people think,</li>
<li>The changes to the TSE's First Section inclusion rules, which will change the nature of TOPIX inclusion trades - a milestone which is approaching VERY quickly.</li>
</ul>When I do analysis of index events or shareholder pressure or ownership on a standalone basis, I fairly regularly get skeptical comments and questions "How do you estimate those numbers?? Those numbers look big to me!"<div>As I said in 2018 in the first version of this piece, my reply is that the data is out there if you are diligent enough to look.</div><div>And when you do, it tells you a fair bit about the nature of what else is out there.</div>

There are many reasons why active investors in Japan should be interested in understanding the ownership and shareholder dynamics of passive investors in Japan.Some of the places active investors will see this are:
Stories intermittently published about the BOJ's presence in Japanese ETFs (especially the fact that it owns 80+% of the outstanding ETF market),
Relatively constant interest in Nikkei 225 rebalances like the one we saw in July 2020, which helped push up Japan Exchange Group (8697 JP) by 30+% from May to July, then helped it slide 13% in a week,
The mooted return of Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) to the TSE First Section, 
The relatively recent policy of increased stewardship regarding the passive management portion of the GPIF (the Government Pension Investment Fund) - an investing heavyweight in Japan,
The changes to the TSE's market structure, which appear to be coming sooner than people think,
The changes to the TSE's First Section inclusion rules, which will change the nature of TOPIX inclusion trades - a milestone which is approaching VERY quickly.
When I do analysis of index events or shareholder pressure or ownership on a standalone basis, I fairly regularly get skeptical comments and questions "How do you estimate those numbers?? Those numbers look big to me!"As I said in 2018 in the first version of this piece, my reply is that the data is out there if you are diligent enough to look.And when you do, it tells you a fair bit about the nature of what else is out there.

Equity Bottom-Up

Komatsu and HCM offer slightly different views on regional recovery paths with Komatsu suggesting developed market demand could recovery earlier while HCM points to regions such as India. China has been the strong point in the Apr-Jun quarter although Komatsu has capitalised on this better than HCM. Meanwhile, the domestic market has been surprisingly resilient. What should reassure investors is that Komatsu’s Komtrax data is pointing to normalisation across numerous countries from Jun onwards.

Komatsu and HCM offer slightly different views on regional recovery paths with Komatsu suggesting developed market demand could recovery earlier while HCM points to regions such as India. China has been the strong point in the Apr-Jun quarter although Komatsu has capitalised on this better than HCM. Meanwhile, the domestic market has been surprisingly resilient. What should reassure investors is that Komatsu’s Komtrax data is pointing to normalisation across numerous countries from Jun onwards.

Komatsu and HCM – Komtrax Suggests Recovery In Store

Japan

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, sells, and repairs construction machinery. The Company's products include hydraulic excavators, crawler cranes, wheel loaders, shield machines, and bulldozers. Hitachi Construction Machinery, a subsidiary of Hitachi, Ltd., markets its products worldwide through sales offices overseas.

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Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)

Hitachi's Hitachi Capital Capital Case - A Merger With MUFG Lease

In May 2016, Hitachi

Travis Lundy

TMI Snapshot: Machinery Sentiment Indicator At 8-Month High on China Infrastructure Push

TMI's Machinery Indicator has surged t

Elan Gore

Hitachi Metals – Sale On

The Nikkei reported on the 20th that Hitachi was looking to sell Hitachi Metals and had contacted foreign investment banks to do so. This is an...

Mio Kato

JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2020?

There are many reasons why active investors in Japan should be interested in understanding the ownership and shareholder dynamics of passive...

Travis Lundy

Komatsu and HCM – Komtrax Suggests Recovery In Store

Komatsu and HCM offer slightly different views on regional recovery paths with Komatsu suggesting developed market demand could recovery earlier...

Mio Kato

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