Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Hindustan Unilever: HUL’s revenue growth of 6% YoY was below our expectations (HSIE: 9%), as inventory de-stocking by trade (1-3 days) in anticipation of price cuts led to a 3% volume growth (2% four-year CAGR, HSIE 6%)</li><li>Home care &amp; BPC saw mid-single-digit volume growth while F&amp;R volumes were flat</li><li>Benefits of GM expansion (+255bps YoY) were largely offset by (1) higher A&amp;P spends (2) capability building (restructuring in HFD portfolio) and (3) an increase in royalty rate which limited EBITDAM expansion to 55bps</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Hindustan Unilever: HUL’s revenue growth of 6% YoY was below our expectations (HSIE: 9%), as inventory de-stocking by trade (1-3 days) in anticipation of price cuts led to a 3% volume growth (2% four-year CAGR, HSIE 6%)Home care &amp; BPC saw mid-single-digit volume growth while F&amp;R volumes were flatBenefits of GM expansion (+255bps YoY) were largely offset by (1) higher A&amp;P spends (2) capability building (restructuring in HFD portfolio) and (3) an increase in royalty rate which limited EBITDAM expansion to 55bpsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Hindustan Unilever, Infosys

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>HUL reported revenue growth of 7% YoY (3% volume growth) to Rs 14,931 Cr, which stood below our estimates as the demand environment remained volatile, though it has seen a gradual recovery.</li><li>Home Care (up 10% YoY) maintained its stellar performance driven by premiumisation and market development, while BPC has seen volume recovery and F&amp;R was a mixed bag.</li><li>The management reiterated that it has gained market share in over 75% of the portfolio across categories. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

HUL reported revenue growth of 7% YoY (3% volume growth) to Rs 14,931 Cr, which stood below our estimates as the demand environment remained volatile, though it has seen a gradual recovery.Home Care (up 10% YoY) maintained its stellar performance driven by premiumisation and market development, while BPC has seen volume recovery and F&amp;R was a mixed bag.The management reiterated that it has gained market share in over 75% of the portfolio across categories. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindustan Unilever Ltd - Temporary Blip, Demand On Recovery Track

<ul><li>Our interaction with HUL management reinforced our thesis that demand pick-up will be more gradual than margin recovery</li><li>The FMCG industry continues to witness MoM improvement, led by urban markets with rural sustaining its gradual recovery trend</li><li>With HUL initiating price cuts to adjust for a softening commodity basket, value growth will continue to tail off, thereby reducing the divergence between volume and value growth</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Our interaction with HUL management reinforced our thesis that demand pick-up will be more gradual than margin recoveryThe FMCG industry continues to witness MoM improvement, led by urban markets with rural sustaining its gradual recovery trendWith HUL initiating price cuts to adjust for a softening commodity basket, value growth will continue to tail off, thereby reducing the divergence between volume and value growthContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindustan Unilever - Demand Recovery to Be Gradual. Maintain REDUCE

India

Hindustan Unilever Limited manufactures and distributes consumer products. The Company offers soap, detergent, personal care products and processed food, ice creams, cooking oils, and other related products. Hindustan Unilever serves customers worldwide.

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Hindustan Unilever (HUVR IN)

Screening for GEMs: August 2023

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

HSIE Results Daily: Hindustan Unilever, Infosys

HUL’s revenue growth of 6% YoY was below our expectations (HSIE: 9%), as inventory de-stocking by trade (1-3 days) in anticipation of price cuts...

HDFC Securities

Hindustan Unilever Ltd - Temporary Blip, Demand On Recovery Track

HUL reported revenue growth of 7% YoY (3% volume growth) to Rs 14,931 Cr, which stood below our estimates as the demand environment remained volatile

Axis Direct

Screening for GEMs: July 2023

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Hindustan Unilever - Demand Recovery to Be Gradual. Maintain REDUCE

With HUL initiating price cuts to adjust for a softening commodity basket, value growth will continue to tail off, thereby reducing the divergence...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)