India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>People expecting BIG BANG announcements in BUDGET will be disappointed</h2><p>The FY19 Budget is a political budget but that is a given when you have elections twelve months away. The Bad News is that it was more populist than some of the more optimistic investors would have expected. At the same time, the good news is that it is less populist than the most pessimistic expectations. <em><strong>In one line: It could have been worse and that comes as a relief.</strong></em></p><p>A significant but fortunately ‘Market crash in flash’…</p>

People expecting BIG BANG announcements in BUDGET will be disappointedThe FY19 Budget is a political budget but that is a given when you have elections twelve months away. The Bad News is that it was more populist than some of the more optimistic investors would have expected. At the same time, the good news is that it is less populist than the most pessimistic expectations. In one line: It could have been worse and that comes as a relief.A significant but fortunately ‘Market crash in flash’…

India: BUDGET Is Populist, But Thankfully Much More in Words and Less in Action - The First Read

<p>Next Week is Budget Week in India and investors are wondering if it will be a populist budget this time or the Modi Govt will continue to remain disciplined about spending. Though we expect this to be a populist budget from a political angle, there are multiple contradictory signals from Prime Minister (PM), Narendra Modi and the Union Finance Minister FM), Arun Jaitley. How the Budget will be, is there a surprise in the offing? These are important questions for investors. Our view is that it is politically impossible to neglect masses in a pre-election year Budget. Some of the schemes which were launched by BJP over last few months also strongly indicated that "populism' and 'democracy' can not be separated easily.</p>

Next Week is Budget Week in India and investors are wondering if it will be a populist budget this time or the Modi Govt will continue to remain disciplined about spending. Though we expect this to be a populist budget from a political angle, there are multiple contradictory signals from Prime Minister (PM), Narendra Modi and the Union Finance Minister FM), Arun Jaitley. How the Budget will be, is there a surprise in the offing? These are important questions for investors. Our view is that it is politically impossible to neglect masses in a pre-election year Budget. Some of the schemes which were launched by BJP over last few months also strongly indicated that "populism' and 'democracy' can not be separated easily.

India: Contradictory Signals from Prime Minister and Finance Minister On "Populism" In FY19 Budget

<h2>Has NDA Started to Look like UPA Only?</h2><p>In our recent insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/george-orwell-s-animal-farm-and-india-s-economy-politics-has-nda-started-to-look-like-upa-only" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:13938">George Orwell’s ‘Animal Farm’ and India’s Economy &amp; Politics - Has NDA Started to Look like UPA Only</a>, we had spoken about how the NDA has started to look like UPA on several key parameters. We highlighted:</p><ul><li>There are some visible differences between NDA (BJP, Narendra Modi) which is in power currently in India and the earlier UPA government (Congress, Sonia Gandhi/Manmohan Singh). For example: BJP is politically much more powerful than…</li></ul>

Has NDA Started to Look like UPA Only?In our recent insight George Orwell’s ‘Animal Farm’ and India’s Economy &amp; Politics - Has NDA Started to Look like UPA Only, we had spoken about how the NDA has started to look like UPA on several key parameters. We highlighted:There are some visible differences between NDA (BJP, Narendra Modi) which is in power currently in India and the earlier UPA government (Congress, Sonia Gandhi/Manmohan Singh). For example: BJP is politically much more powerful than…

Appointment of Independent Directors in PSUs - Role of Competency And Role of Political Influence

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Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

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<p>We continue to track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors / Countries do the Analysts like and which ones do they not. Overall there were approx. 20% more downgrades than upgrades over the last 2 weeks.</p><h2>% of Upgrades relative to Total (Country Level)</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/024/226/original/1.png?1492102101" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="24226"></figure><div class="content-caption"><strong>Source: Custom Products</strong></div><p>Taiwan and India had the most upgrades relative to total recommendations in the last two weeks. In Taiwan, 37 names had a least 1 upgrade. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/745" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745:1">Hon Hai</a>…</p>

We continue to track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors / Countries do the Analysts like and which ones do they not. Overall there were approx. 20% more downgrades than upgrades over the last 2 weeks.% of Upgrades relative to Total (Country Level)Source: Custom ProductsTaiwan and India had the most upgrades relative to total recommendations in the last two weeks. In Taiwan, 37 names had a least 1 upgrade. Hon Hai…

Most Popular / Unpopular Sectors and Countries in Asia - Ex Japan (Last 2 Weeks)

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<p><strong>Hungary:</strong> Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months.<br><strong>Mexico:</strong> Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of inflation reported this week at 5.3% (the highest rate in 8 years).  This is a critical positive development for the Peso.<br><strong>Saudi Arabia:</strong> Has the most to lose from lower prices as this complicates attempts to diversify their economy.  Iran is less concerned as they are just coming off of sanctions and any revenue they get is better than before.  Iraq would…</p>

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months. Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of inflation reported this week at 5.3% (the highest rate in 8 years).  This is a critical positive development for the Peso. Saudi Arabia: Has the most to lose from lower prices as this complicates attempts to diversify their economy.  Iran is less concerned as they are just coming off of sanctions and any revenue they get is better than before.  Iraq would…

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

India

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited refines crude oil and manufactures petroleum and petroleum products. The Company's products, which are sold via outlets throughout India, include lube products, lubricating oil, aviation fuel, hydraulic brake fluid, greases, liquefied petroleum gas and insecticides. The Government of India is the majority shareholder in the company.

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Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL IN)

India: BUDGET Is Populist, But Thankfully Much More in Words and Less in Action - The First Read

People expecting BIG BANG announcements in BUDGET will be disappointedThe FY19 Budget is a political budget but that is a given when you have...

Pankaj Sharma

India: Contradictory Signals from Prime Minister and Finance Minister On "Populism" In FY19 Budget

Next Week is Budget Week in India and investors are wondering if it will be a populist budget this time or the Modi Govt will continue to remain...

Pankaj Sharma

Appointment of Independent Directors in PSUs - Role of Competency And Role of Political Influence

Has NDA Started to Look like UPA Only?In our recent insight George Orwell’s ‘Animal Farm’ and India’s Economy & Politics - Has NDA Started to...

Pankaj Sharma

Most Popular / Unpopular Sectors and Countries in Asia - Ex Japan (Last 2 Weeks)

We continue to track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors /...

Custom Products Group

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months.Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of...

David Riedel

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